Change of Guards in Kremlin: New Political Scenario Emerging?

At last the terribly sickman of Moscow, Boris Yeltsin is out and he has put in, as his successor to the 'Kremlin Throne', his favourite 'blue-boy' Vladimir Putin, a former KGB spy, who has a black belt in Judo and calls 'criminals' the 'rats' to be 'exterminated'. Yeltsin, and for that matter, the West, was looking for such a 'hard nut' for a pretty long time.

So Putin must have agreed to accept the 'hard job', with the 'blessings' of the Western leaders, led by America, to run the country on the 'right track', drawn by his mentors. On the eve of the new year and the new millennium, Yeltsin offered a sort of relief to his much-suffering nation which disliked him most because of his wrong policies of much-published economic reforms and open market which brought more problems than it could solve. So hearing his announcement over television that he had resigned (willingly or willy-nilly?) and made Prime Minister Putin his successor, Acting President, the Russian people must have heaved a sigh of relief, particularly to know that elections would be held within 90 days, that is, on 26 March, for choosing a new President.

It is well-known to the Kremlin-watchers that Yeltsin is not a born national leader. Nor he acquired leadership himself. Leadership was just 'thrust' upon him by his 'distant' friends, when the big putsch, engineered by the neo-nationalists and communists failed to oust Michael Gorbachev in 1991. An altogether unknown person outside Moscow, Yeltsin, literally out of obscurity, rode to power over the shoulders of the failed 'coup' leaders. The 'operations', however, worked nicely on a 'double track': first, Gorbachev was given a decent 'political burial', and secondly, already tattering. Soviet Union was broken into pieces, giving rise to a number independent states of which Russia inherited the 'mantle' of the former Soviet regime, of course, minus commism. For the first couple of years, since his election as President for the first term, he tried to prove his 'metle' for which he was 'thrown up.' But during his second term beginning in 1996, his health deteriorated rapidly and he spent more time in hospital than in his office. Sometimes, people were confused as to who was 'running the country' and who was in 'control'?

During the last couple of years, his behaviour was so funny and unpredictable, that even the Moscow Radio said he had turned into a "clown", having "no credibility and trust". An influential official of an western financial organization which had invested millions of dollars in Russia, was quoted some time back as saying that "Yeltsin has completely lost his grip on the whole situation... a sign that the country is in complete political chaos." The West, particularly America, was worried about the future leadership of Russia, after Yeltsin goes out, because, the communist leader, Gennedy Zyuganor, who came second to Yeltsin in the 1996 election, shows a danger 'red' signal for the west.

US Search for Yeltsin's Successor

It may not be out of context here to recall that US Secretary of State Albright rushed to Moscow last year when speculations were rife about Yeltsin's further deterioration of health. She made an on-the-spot survey by holding series of meetings with a "string of probable successors" of ailing Yeltsin. But the identity of the "probables" were not publicly divulged then. However, in reply to a query, the former CIA Director, Mr Turner was reported to have said that America "was already involved in the process". It speaks more loudly than it hides.

Meanwhile, Yeltsin had started processing his 'successor'. The picture gradually became clearer from the events that followed. Yeltsin started his 'pick and choose' process of appointing and subsequently dismissing Prime Ministers one after another - beginning with the dismissal in 1998 of the most efficient Prime Minister, Chernomyrdin, who stayed with Yeltsin, perhaps for the longest period. Then came Sergi Krienko, followed by again Chernomyrdin (reappointed after dismissal), then came Primacov, Sergi Stepashin and last, but not the least, who proved most valuable to his boss, was Vladimir Putin. In about two months, four or five heads rolled down! And in this 'national parade' of testing 'efficiency and merit' to put on the mantle of future Kremlin leadership, Putin came out with flying colours.

Although Putin has very little experience with political and economic issues, he was fielded by Yeltsin with the toughest job of crushing the so-called "Islamic militants" in Chechnya and thereby further consolidate his position as the most powerful candidate for the next presidential elections. Yes, Putin has proved his "metle" by turning the entire Chechnya into a gigantic 'killing field', massacring thousands of innocent Chechens, uprooting millions from their homes, in the name of 'exterminating' the 'criminals', the 'Islamic militants'. After about three months of ruthless air and ground operation, Chechnya is still burning and the rebels in their strongholds in the capital Grozny still posing a great threat to the Russian forces. Putin is said to be Changing his 'strategy' to launch another foolproof all-out operation to flush out the 'militants' for good, while his 'patron' Yeltsin has said that Russian flag would fly in Grozny in two months' time - very carefully planned time-frame to coincide with the March elections.

Putin Wins West's Endorsement

Acting President and Prime Minister - wearing two caps at a time - Putin has already "won a cordial endorsement" from President Clinton and other Western leaders for his "commitment" to "democratic values"! What an appreciation by the Western leaders, when the Chechen people fighting for their democratic rights to establish an independent Chechnya is being ruthlessly crushed by Putin with the blessings, so to say, of his 'mentors'.

But the picture is not as bright as being painted by both Yeltsin and his 'disciple' Putin for a 'quick action' to regain the 'lost territory' of Chechnya and contain economic collapse. Many think that more 'rhetorics' of both of them are short-lived, meant to serve a short-term purpose of winning in the Presidential election. The big question which is haunting many minds is: while Yeltsin made a mess of everything in the name of 'economic reforms' and 'open market policy', drowning the whole nation into a morass of poverty, will the new 'strong man' ever succeed? Yeltsin, in his last television address to the nation, asked the Russians to "forgive" him for his "mistakes and failings". But why this sudden sense of guilt on the eve of his departure after ruling the roost during his two-terms in the presidency? Because he promised his nation to give them the moon but he miserably failed, being himself a moon-struck. While his wrong policy led to the creation of a 'neo-rich' class in Russian society over night with rampant corruption, it made the majority poverty-stricken, ill-fed and ill-housed. So Yeltsin wanted to save himself from the wrath of the people. Perhaps, as an year-ending 'bonus' to his nation, Yeltsin gave them the much-published Sino-Russian Summit where he met his Chinese counterpart Jiang Zemin, winning 'full' Chinese support to the Russian 'measure' in Chechnya to crush the rebels there. This goes honourably (!) to the credit of Yeltsin. But will the Russian people forgive him? Only history will say that.

Undoubtedly, the up-coming Presidential elections will witness a colourful rendezvous of contesting party candidates. Putin, the official candidate of Yeltsin's party, with cheerful nods from the west, will not be there alone. So he can't expect a smooth walk-over, although the much-orchestrated western media has already started releasing wonderful stories about Putin - "winning the hearts" of the Russian people as a "strongman" and "saviour" of the sinking nation.

Who Laughs Last?

It is true that America, and for that matter the west, have found their 'man' in Putin, following Albright's 'interviews' with "a string of probable successors" of ailing Yeltsin, but will the buck stop there? There seems to be strong rivals from both the communist and nationalist blocs to face Putin, besides some ambitious army Generals, including Alexander Laved, who came third in the 1996 election, just below the communist candidate, Gennedy Zyuganor who hit the second position, below Yeltsin. Putin will be in a fix, if the Russian people want to get rid of the 'Yeltsin circle' and walk on a different track. It is to be seen how long Putin shines with the 'borrowed' or 'reflected' distant light. The recent military reverses in Chechen operation, where Putin was practically given 'free-hand' with 'loud' inaction on the part of the West (and now also China after Beijing Summit), may be exploited by Putin's rivals as his failure, to their advantage. Let March come. Then only it will be seen who gets the bigger share of the 'cake'. Till then we will have to sit cross-fingered and watch who laughs last.

The writer is a retired UN official.