Restoring democracy

A sense of trepidation prevails among Bangladeshis as the date of election nears. Because of the overwhelming desire for a qualitative change from the past, particularly from the misrule of the BNP-Jamaat alliance government (2001-2006), in the character and behavioural pattern of the elected representatives, one can only hope that the next elected government will not be corrupt and will be accountable to the people for its actions.
If The Daily Star-Nielson Election Opinion Poll-2, 2008 is anything to go by then the Awami League-led mahajote should win the election hands down. The people are satisfied with the roles played by the administration, the caretaker taker government, the Election Commission and the armed forces in the preparation for the elections.
Many have opined that the coming election will be transformational as it will demonstrate to the world that, distinct from historian Bernard Lewis' view that democracy is a peculiarly Western method of conducting public affairs which may or may not be suitable for others, moderate Muslim countries can also practice such a system.
The challenge before us is to dispel misgivings expressed, for example, by the Brussels based International Crisis Group's report (December 11) that "even a successful election will only be the initial step to developing a more effective democracy in Bangladesh." No less of a challenge will be to set right the notion that transition to democracy does not necessarily have to traverse through the conditions that Fukuyama thinks to be essential.
In a speech to the American Foreign Policy Association, Francis Fukuyama maintained that basically four conditions had to exist to facilitate democratic transition:- (a) the level of development, (b) culture, (c) neighbourhood effect, and (d) ideas. Virtually all industrialised economies are functioning democracies, while relatively very few poor countries are. There are exceptions such as India and Costa Rica, which, despite their relative underdevelopment, have been thriving democracies while Saudi Arabia and Kuwait still remain autocracies despite American pressure on them to open up.
Albeit Fukuyama is not totally convinced that Islamic culture, which does not separate the temporal from spiritual authorities and, therefore, makes itself unable to sustain true democracy and may use "one man, one vote, one time as a route to establishing theocracy of the sort that exists in Iran today," is necessarily reflective of the situation prevailing in the entire Islamic world.
It is true that virtually all industrialised countries are functioning democracies. Indeed, once a country attains per capita GDP of $6000 it transforms itself from an agricultural society to an industrialised one, and attains sustainable democracy. Empirically, it has been found that not a single country that became a democracy ever reverted back to authoritarianism.
Perhaps, because of the growth of the middle-class, owning private property makes them strong stakeholders in the sustenance of democracy. But the argument of "neighbourhood effect" does not have universal applicability. While India has been the largest democracy in the world for close to six decades, both Pakistan and Bangladesh experienced extra-constitutional rule several times in their brief history. Nepal, till recently, had no democratic government and Maldives has just transited to a democratic order.
The manifestos and speeches delivered by the leaders of the major political parties repeatedly emphasise that prices of essentials will be brought down within the purchasing capacity of the people, and that the syndicates that had looted crores of takas by artificially raising the prices of commodities with the help of BNP-Jamaat alliance government will be uprooted and the guilty will be taken to task.
The challenge posed by the Islamic extremists remains. Already, Awami League President Sheikh Hasina has been informed that a six-member suicide squad of banned Harkat-ul-Jihad-Islami has been formed to assassinate her. She has reportedly been advised to take precautions while alighting from and getting into her vehicle, presumably to prevent something like the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.
In November, security forces seized 70 kg of explosives and 150 hand grenades from active members of Jamatul Mujahedeen Bangladesh (JMB). It is believed that hundreds of JMB militants are at large. The elected government will have to remain ever vigilant against Islamic militants who are engaged in terrorism in the name of Islam so that Bangladesh does not unwittingly provide space to non-state actors to create havoc within and without the country.
The coming election will also be unique in the sense that more than one-third of the voters are first-time voters and their votes may be decisive. In this respect, Awami League's inclusion of 2021 vision for Bangladesh in its manifesto may give the party an edge. In the ultimate analysis, this election may result in better governance than before as more politically conscious voters will decide the fate of the people competing to form the next government.

Kazi Anwarul Masud is a former Secretary and Ambassador.