Climate crisis

MOST environmentalists are disappointed that the political parties in their election manifestos have not touched on how to address the adverse effects of global warming in the country.
People do not realise that global warming will reduce agriculture production, increase infectious and bacterial diseases and submerge coastal areas. Health security and food security will become myths under changed climatic conditions.
The negative impacts of climate change on agriculture are already posing extra challenges to the survival of millions of the landless and marginal farmers whose livelihood almost entirely depends on agriculture.
The environment has degraded so much that, on bad days, airborne pollution lies like a thick veil blocking out sunlight over the cities. It is estimated that only 1% of the country's 40 million city dwellers breathe air that could be considered safe. In addition, large areas of coastline are so polluted that they no longer sustain marine life.
A recent report of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) presents a bleak picture of Bangladesh by 2030.
The report predicts that the population will be nearly 200 million by 2020, with 40% under 15 years of age. An additional 6-8% of Bangladesh will be permanently under water and flood-prone areas will increase from 25% to 40% by 2050.
Furthermore, three-quarters of the Himalayan glaciers may vanish, with disastrous consequences for areas dependent on the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Environmental refugees from rural areas will be flocking to the cities. Dhaka will be one of the world's largest cities, with 300 million people.
The report adds that environmental refugees from rural areas will come to cities where flood defence will be concentrated, and over 80 million people will live in urban slums. In rural areas this urban migration could mean that the countryside would be abandoned to the elderly, woman-headed households and to the very poorest.
Bangladeshis find themselves forced to confront the following environmental challenges:
* Melting of glaciers in the Himalayas;
* Massive deforestation in India and Nepal;
* Diversion of water from rivers by upper riparian countries;
* Dying rivers (about 100 have already died);
* Intrusion of salinity into rivers and farmlands;
* Arsenic contaminated underground water in more than 50 districts;
* Reduction in agriculture, livestock and fishery because of intrusion of salinity.
Increased temperature has added more problems. While a torrent of melt-water from the Himalayan glaciers flows to the rivers, causing soil erosion, coastal zones are being gradually flooded by rising sealevels.
Bangladesh's rivers are both snow and rain-fed, and if there is no snow in the Himalayas, the 56 major rivers will die during winter. It is a dreadful scenario.
Besides these, population growth and poverty added to the degradation of the environment in the country.
In simple terms, the more people there are, the more land is cleared and the more soil is eroded. The country is losing 1% of its agricultural land every year because of human settlements, according to experts.
Population density is increasing in the most vulnerable coastal regions. It is reported that greater numbers of people are moving to areas with less climate risk for economic reasons.
Poverty leads to activities that pollute the environment; for example, fuel in the countryside comes from forests. Unhygienic living conditions in the slums of the cities and in the countryside lead to pollution of air, soil and water.
Bangladesh is in a dilemma: promoting economic growth without degrading the environment in these days of soaring food prices, global financial crisis and climate change.
Bangladesh's survival is dependent on appropriate policies to cope with the threats of global warming. Much depends on the government, NGOs, academic institutions and the people, who must work together to combat the effects of global warming with the assistance of the international community.
It is the poor who will suffer most when the deleterious consequences of global warming hit the country steadily and surely.
In this respect, political parties must have a strategy to grapple with global warming. The strategy should envision a future, which will be better than the current situation, and it should be achievable within a time framework. Vision is a bridge between the current state and a future optimum state.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.