IN these past few weeks, conditions in Sri Lanka have taken a serious turn with government forces and the LTTE engaged in what seems like a fierce struggle for supremacy in the north and east of the country. Sri Lankan forces have been pounding away at LTTE positions, with the government claiming that it has been scoring major victories in its drive against Velupillai Prabhakaran and his men. If that is one side of the picture, there is another as well. And it is the claim of the Tigers that they have been inflicting heavy losses on government forces and are far from the defeat the government in Colombo claims is near at hand for them.
The reality could be anywhere between these conflicting claims. More important, though, is the terrible truth of the country having slid back to a war one had only a couple of years ago thought could be reaching an end through negotiations brokered by the Norwegian government. That move was looked upon as a new beginning, not only because it offered the prospect of an end to the conflict but also because it seemed that the two sides were ready to tone down their demands. The LTTE appeared to be coming close to accepting a devolved status within the Sri Lankan federation instead of demanding a separate state for Tamils. And much of the credit for the beginning of the peace process must go to then prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who reached out to the Tigers and thereby offered hope to his country. But then came the anti-climax, when first Chandrika Kumaratunga and then her successor, President Rajapakse, decided on a hardline approach to the crisis. In the process, the fitful momentum for peace could not but come to a dead end.
At this point, the crisis in Sri Lanka is far from over and both sides will be deceiving themselves if they think they can win an outright victory in what is fast becoming a twilight struggle. To all intents and purposes, the LTTE has been weakened by the ferocity of the government onslaught, but for anyone to write it off would be a mistake. Which takes us to the thought, once more, of the two sides exploring the chances of a negotiated settlement to the issue. The Sri Lankan state needs to remain intact. At the same time, the Tamils in the east and north need constitutional guarantees of self-government in the future.