The government has fixed an ambitious target of food grain production for the current fiscal year 2008-09 with a 24 percent rise in total output although the target may be missed if the current flood situation deteriorates.
According to food ministry sources, the government has fixed 41 percent increase in Aman output for the current fiscal year to achieve the food grain production.
Monitoring the prices and production of rice on global and local markets, the Fortnightly Foodgrain Outlook of the food ministry in its August issue forecast that food grain prices would come down steadily both globally and locally.
But ministry sources and local traders yesterday said food grain production and the rice price situation in the coming months would depend on occurrence of any natural calamity and its impact on local rice production.
In this fiscal year, the government targets producing 3.66 crore tonnes food grain while the target in FY2007-08 was 2.97 tonnes, according to a food ministry report.
This year the target for Aus production is 23.69 lakh tonnes; in the previous season, it was 15.1 lakh tonnes. The ministry sources, however, said they have not yet fully estimated the total Aus output but they expect it to be close to the target.
On the other hand, the target for Aman in FY2008-09 has been set at 1.36 crore tonnes. The target was 1.30 crore tonnes in the last fiscal year but only 96.62 lakh tonnes Aman could be harvested because of floods and cyclone Sidr.
Ministry sources said one lakh hectare of arable land in 16 districts has been so far affected due to the current floods but the agriculture ministry is still not sure how much the floods would affect the crop's cultivation.
Uttam Kumar Dev, head of research at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said the consequences of the current flood cannot be predicted yet since the picture of floods is still unclear.
If the flood affects Aman planting, it will not be possible to meet its production target, in which case the government will have to undertake strong rehabilitation programmes for Robi crops.
The government Boro target for this fiscal year is 1.96 crore tonnes when with a bumper production the total output of the crop was 1.77 crore tonnes in the last season. In FY2006-07, Boro production was 1.49 crore tonnes.
The Fortnightly Foodgrain Outlook released on August 21 says, "Domestic prices of rice continued declining over the past two weeks, reflecting improved supply to markets in a context of good progress in Aus harvesting and Aman planting coupled with downward pressures on international prices.
"The rice price decrease is unusual for this period of the year. It indicates that the large private stocks built over the past months are being released. This might continue over the coming weeks if positive domestic and international prospects are confirmed," it adds.
"International prices of Thai 5 percent parboiled rice recorded a 4 percent decrease in the second week of August, whilst prices of Thai 100 percent parboiled have been steadily decreasing since July," it says.
Wholesalers at different markets in the capital said prices of rice have increased by Tk 10-20 per maund in wholesale markets yesterday as an immediate effect of the ongoing floods.
Rice prices also increased in other districts due to the flooding, they said.
The Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, meanwhile, projected that the flood situation would improve in the next one or two days.
"Due to the high price this year, farmers have used very little amount of triple super phosphate [TSP] and muriate of potash fertilisers. Besides floods, this event would adversely affect rice production. So, it is very difficult to predict now how much the rice price will fall," CPD researcher Uttam Kumar Dev said.