Myanmar junta not likely to heed UN envoy

UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari returns to Myanmar today to press the junta to include opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in its election plans, but analysts say the military will likely turn him a deaf ear.
Gambari is making his third trip to the military-ruled country since police and soldiers used deadly force to break up anti-government protests led by Buddhist monks in September.
At least 31 people died according to the United Nations, although Human Rights Watch has put the toll at more than 100.
The junta agreed to allow Gambari to visit in hopes of soothing international outrage over the crackdown, which crushed the biggest challenge to military rule in nearly 20 years.
On his two earlier trips, Gambari tried to open a dialogue between the junta and Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel peace laureate and pro-democracy leader who has been under house arrest for 12 of the last 18 years.
But on this trip, Gambari faces a changed political landscape.
After months of sitting on the defensive over their bloody crackdown, the junta has reclaimed the initiative by proposing a constitutional referendum in May and multi-party elections in 2010.
With their new constitution in hand, the military will be less likely to heed western calls for reform -- especially demands that Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) be brought into the process, he said.
Although the final version of the constitution has not been released, the regime has already announced that Aung San Suu Kyi will be barred from running in elections.
The military appears unwilling to reopen the charter for discussion, meaning Gambari will have to try to secure whatever small concessions he can get to ensure the voting is free and fair, Win Min said.
"He will try to ask them to negotiate to include Aung San Suu Kyi in the process, to allow the NLD to debate on the constitution at the referendum, and also to run in elections in 2010," he said.
"It is likely that the regime will say no," he added.
Under a law enacted last month, speaking publicly about the referendum or distributing leaflets is punishable by up to three years in prison.