Nuclear stalemate?

THE negotiations on North Korea's nuclear programs are stuck in the familiar territory of a standoff between the United States and North Korea over the existence of a uranium-enrichment program. North Korea had promised to end all its nuclear activities in return for shipments of aid and diplomatic concessions. Though it has closed its reactor at Yongbyong, US officials say it has failed to comply with the second phase of the process -- providing a complete accounting of all of its nuclear programs by December 31, 2007.
But the lack of progress is seen as less than bad news for countries involved in North Korea's nuclear disarmament talks. They are using the time as breathing space to tune up their positions.
"North Korea is currently preparing a declaration (of its nuclear programs). All members are committed to the process and for Pyongyang to faithfully draw up its declaration that befits the October 3 agreement," said Seoul's Foreign Ministry spokesman Cho Hee-yong.
Observers say that the latest stalemate does not mean commitment to the six-party talks has dwindled. "North Korea is currently waiting for the new administration in South Korea before making its move regarding its position in the nuclear talks and in inter-Korean relations," said Professor Kim Keun-shik of Kyungnam University.
"It is likely that the latest stalemate will continue until after South Korea president-elect Lee Myung-bak's inauguration in the South," Kim said while adding that the most likely breaking point would be South Korea's annual fertiliser aid for North Korea's spring planting season at the end of this month.
Pushing the nuclear issue to the sideline are also various domestic events that fill this month's calendar of many of the countries involved.
North Korea is getting ready to celebrate the 66th birthday of its leader Kim Jong-il and after the long Lunar New Year holiday celebrated by South Korea and China.
Washington is also distracted by the on-going conflict in the Middle East, in addition to the weakened political importance of its North Korean policies ahead of the upcoming presidential election in November. But the persuading work by Washington for Pyongyang to declare a "full and complete" list of its nuclear programs continues. The US ambassador to Seoul Alexander Vershbow also sent out a message reaffirming Washington's patience.
"While the delay is unfortunate, the US will continue talks," he said at the Korea Economic Institute in Washington on Feb 7. He also reiterated that the United States "will take as long as necessary" while not settling for anything less than Korea's full denuclearisation.
The six-party talks involving the US, China, Russia, Japan, South and North Korea endorsed the agreement specifying North Korea's disablement of its Yongbyon facilities and declaration of its existing nuclear programs in return for economic and political incentives. The economic incentives worth 500,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil and an equal amount of energy installation equipment are being delivered to the North by South Korea, the United States, China and Russia.
The political incentive of lifting the sanctions from the reclusive state, however, remains with the delay in endorsing North Korea's nuclear programs declaration list.
North Korea, in the meantime, remains unusually quiet about the incoming new administration under Lee. Political observers say Lee is sending "extremely confusing" signals to North Korea by taking a flexible approach to the pending inter-Korean projects.
He is also making significantly staunch moves such as a proposed abolition of the Unification Ministry. The ministry had acted as the main channel for dialogue with the communist neighbour.
"It is possible that North Korea will denounce Lee's administration once it officially takes office. It is likely that the North has moved on from the initial stage of anticipation to an observation period to finally a point where it is foregoing any hopes for a friendly start of relations with the new Seoul government," said Professor Kim Keun-shik.
But observers say that it is also undeniable that North Korea will be more cautious, as its reliance on the South has grown expansively during the past 10 years of the engagement policy under presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun.
North Korea has so far remained steady in its position that the nuclear problem is an issue to be resolved bilaterally with the United States, even within the six-party talks' framework.
This position of the North has also forced the engagement policy of the past South Korean governments to face criticism for failing to use its vast economic aid as direct leverage in the nuclear negotiation.
However, the cooperation between South Korea and the United States is likely to solidify especially in dealing with a defiant North Korea. But staunch voices in Washington are likely to rise with a protracted stalemate and recent allegations that North Korea could be helping Syria to build nuclear weapons facility.

© The Korea Herald. All rights reserved. Reprinted by arrangement with Asia News Network.