As the clock ticks away for the nuclear deal with the US, the Indian government is planning to conclude a safeguards pact with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) latest by mid-March and has set itself an April-end deadline to force the issue with its Left allies which are determined to thwart the deal.
Top Indian nuclear officials will hold the fifth round of talks with the IAEA later this month with a view to wrapping up the India-specific safeguards pact. The pact aims at ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply for civilian reactors India will place under safeguards and the right to take corrective action in case the fuel supply is interrupted.
It is taking longer than expected as the IAEA standard template does not apply to India, which has nuclear weapons but has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and yet desires to join global civil nuclear commerce.
Moreover, the IAEA is not a supplier of fuel and, therefore, cannot act as a guarantor of fuel supply. "The safeguards pact itself may take some more time, may be another couple of rounds, but it will eventually be done well in time by mid-March. The real point is when the government decides to take a political call on when to force the issue with the Left," a top government source told IANS.
"This has nothing to do with any deadline set by the US. If the Left issue is not resolved by April, then the deal is as good as gone," the source said, requesting anonymity because of the sensitivity involved.
In case of a continuing standoff, there are two options before the government: put the deal on hold and continue with the status quo or call the Left's bluff by seeking a confidence vote in parliament.
The first option, which means the suspension of the deal, is a more likely scenario with most political parties, including the constituents of the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA), not in favour of early elections.
The latter option entails putting the very survival of the government on the line if the opposition to the deal expressed by an overwhelming number of MPs in parliament in the past two years is anything to go by.
What can, however, work in the government's favour are strategic abstentions by UPA constituents and even some of the main opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the source said.