GDP now 6.32pc

GDP growth fell by 0.39 percentage point to 6.32 percent in the current fiscal year, compared with the figures for last fiscal year, mainly due to sluggish growth in the agriculture sector, according to the provisional data of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
In the current fiscal year, the agriculture sector grew by 2.53 percent, which was 5.13 percent in the last fiscal year, says the statistical agency.
The growth in the crop and horticulture sub-sector slumped to 0.94 percent in the current fiscal year, compared to last year's 5.65 percent.
The government had projected a 7 percent GDP growth this fiscal year against last year's 6.71. However, donor agencies, including the IMF, projected the growth at between 5.5 percent and 6 percent.
Mustafizur Rahman, executive director of Centre for Policy Dialogue, told The Daily Star that the expected growth of 4.5 percent in the agriculture sector this fiscal year could not be achieved, as rice production this year was almost similar to the previous year's.
Rahman said the agriculture sector's contribution to the GDP is about 19 percent, and the sluggish growth in the sector slowed down overall GDP growth.
Zahid Hussain, senior economist at the World Bank, said, “Following successive bumper harvests, agricultural growth is likely to be slower because of base effects as well as marginally lower Boro output due to slightly lower acreage”.
According to data of the food and agriculture ministries, rice and wheat production this fiscal year will be 3.48 crore tonnes, which was 3.45 crore tonnes last year.
BBS statistics show that growth in the service sector this fiscal year fell to 6.06 percent from 6.22 percent last year.
The industries sector grew by 1.27 percentage points to 9.47 percent. However, large and medium scale industries saw a fall in growth by 0.16 percentage point to 10.78 percent.
Electricity, gas and water supply made a huge jump. Electricity supply rose to 14.11 percent from 6.63 percent.
In the service sector, the wholesale and retail trade sub-sector saw a decline in growth by 0.49 percentage points. But the construction, transport and real estate sub-sector witnessed a rise.
Hussain said weaknesses in Bangladesh's export markets, especially in the euro zone, absence of ideal environment for private investment, limits on capacity utilisation for energy constraints, macro policy tightening, and financial sector restraints likely to have contributed to the growth deceleration this fiscal year.
He said the service sector, particularly retail and wholesale trade, may have grown slower for weaker sales. “A recovery in remittance inflows, however, may have helped Bangladesh maintain its recent average growth performance.”
Both Rahman and Hussain said deceleration in growth this year is not unique to Bangladesh. They said Bangladesh's growth rate was good, considering the global and domestic constraints.