Arithmetic of votes

PAKISTAN is changing. It is really difficult for the West to understand the new ground realities of Pakistani politics. Militancy in the North West Frontier Province bordering Afghanistan is on the rise, but religious politics in the same province is on the decline. A fair and free election on February 18th can really change the entire landscape of electoral politics in Pakistan.
The last election in October 2002 gave rise to religious parties in electoral politics, but 2008 may bring a downfall of religious parties and their old allies who ruled not only NWFP but also Baluchistan province for five years. February 18th may prove that it was not religion that caused the rise in militancy, but some regional conflicts and bad strategy in the war against terror actually created more terror in Pakistan.
There is a big difference between 2002 and 2008. Pervez Musharraf was in army uniform in 2002. He is no more wearing his uniform in 2008. Two former prime ministers, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, were in exile in 2002, and their absence helped religious parties to increase their influence. Both of them returned to Pakistan in 2007. They are still absent from electoral politics, but their parties will not allow anyone to steal the anti- establishment votes. PPP and PML-N will represent the rising liberal and semi-moderate political forces in at least three provinces of Pakistan. Only Baluchistan may go back to the hands of the past rulers due to the election boycott of secular and nationalist parties in the province.
Some new realities in Pakistani politics actually emerged on December 27th last year. Benazir Bhutto came back to Pakistan on October 18th, and she was planning to contest election from a constituency (NA 207) in her home, Sindh province. She was assassinated on December 27th, 2007, and election was cancelled in NA 207.
Nawaz Sharif filed his nomination papers from Lahore, but the Election Commission of Pakistan rejected his papers. Now, the situations in Pakistan and Bangladesh are similar. Both the countries have interim governments. Two former prime ministers of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina and Khalida Zia, may not participate in the elections. Two former prime ministers in Pakistan are also not participating in the coming election. One martyred and the other banned.
Martyred Benazir Bhutto has become a much bigger threat for her political opponents than the alive Benazir Bhutto. December 27th was like a 9/11 for anti-Bhutto forces. She became a legend on that day. One can see that poor people are selling her posters for Rs.20 at every crossing of Murree road in Rawalpindi, but her party is still not in a position to take advantage of her popularity in many constituencies. It is still very difficult for PPP to get simple majority in the coming national assembly. PPP could benefit from the sympathy wave if the voter turn-out is good.
A high turn-out of voters will upset the position of PML-Q in its political fort of Punjab. Before December 27th pro-Musharraf PML-Q was not only confident of winning back the biggest province of Punjab, but Chuadhry Pervez Elahi was also a serious candidate for the premiership. Now PML-Q may face a tough fight from PPP in Punjab. This time it would be difficult for any party to get a clear majority, even in Punjab. A majority of the political observers are expecting a hung parliament in the center, Punjab and also in NWFP.
The national assembly has total 342 seats. 272 seats are meant for direct election while 60 seats are reserved for women and 10 seats reserved for the minorities. There are 148 seats in the national assembly from Punjab; PML-Q candidates are stable in 55 constituencies while PPP candidates have strong position in 48 constituencies. PML-N could do well in 41 constituencies. Independents can also win some seats in the rural Punjab. Shortage of atta (flour) and electricity for many weeks can further increase the seats of anti-Musharraf forces in Punjab.
Pro-Musharraf PML-Q is suffering from infighting. This party ruled Pakistan for five years. Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali was prime minister under Musharraf for two years and then Shaukat Aziz was prime minister for three years. Jamali has left PML-Q, and Shaukat Aziz left Pakistan because PML-Q leadership refuses to grant him a party ticket from any place in Pakistan. The finance ministry remained with Shaukat Aziz for 8 years. He is no more available to defend his economic policies in the election campaign of 2008. Chuadhry Pervez Elahi has been forced to admit that country was facing economic problems due to the bad policies of Shaukat Aziz.
Many famous federal ministers and MNA's of the previous PML-Q government have also left their party. Former Law Minister Zahid Hamid from Sialkot joined hands with Nawaz Sharif. He was defending the emergency imposed by Musharraf on November 3rd, and is now making speeches against the policies of his own past government. Former minister for economic affairs, Hina Rabbani Khar, from Muzaffargarh has joined PPP. Former environment minister, Malik Amin Aslam, from Attock and former industries minister Jehangir Khan Tarin from Rahim Yar Khan refused to contest on PML-Q tickets.
Most of the PML-Q turncoats, like Sanaullah Khan Mastikhel from Bhakkar, were given shelter by Nawaz Sharif. People like Mastikhel have no hesitation in saying that it was not possible for him to win on a PML-Q ticket. It is interesting that both Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Chaudhry Pervez Elahi of PML-Q are contesting from two seats of the national assembly. Javed Hashmi of PML-N is contesting from 4 seats of Multan, Lahore and Rawalpindi. He is trying his level best to defeat Sheikh Rashid Ahmad of PML-Q from this garrison city.
Religious parties won 5 seats from Punjab in 2002, but this time their seats will go to PML-N, including one by Hanif Abbasi from Rawalpindi. Abbasi won NA-56 in 2002 for MMA, and this time he is confident of defeating Sheikh Rashid from the platform of PML-N. Both PML-Q and PPP have weak candidates in Lahore. The bulk of the 13 Lahore seats will go to PML-N.
The federal capital, Islamabad, has two NA seats. PPP and MMA won these two seats in 2002. NA-48 was captured by MMA in 2002. Now PPP, PML-N and PML-Q will have a close fight in NA-48. PPP candidate, Dr.Israr Shah, lost both his legs in a suicide bombing last year in Islamabad, and he will get lot of sympathy votes. PPP won NA-49 in 2002, and this time again PPP will try to defend this seat.
Sindh has 61 seats for the national assembly. PPP has a strong position in 37 seats, but is weak in Tharparker and Sanghar. PML-Q and PML-F of Pir Pagaro can jointly win at least 4 seats in Tharparker and Sanghar. Former PML-Q chief minister Arbab Ghulam Rahim is in the full control of the administration in Tharparker. It is difficult for PPP candidates to come out and run their election compaign in the desert area of Tharparker. MQM is stable in 19 urban seats of Karachi and Hyderabad. The religious parties alliance, MMA, won 7 seats in 2002 from two big urban centers of Sindh. This time they are not in a position to win even a single seat from these two cities. Their seats will be distributed among PPP and MQM. The majority of the 20 Karachi seats will go to MQM again.
NWFP has 35 seats for the national assembly. Religious parties alliance MMA captured most of the seats in 2002 by using the anti-American wave at that time. MMA is broken now. Its president, Qazi Hussain Ahmad of Jamat-i-Islami, has boycotted the election along with Imran Khan. He thinks that there could be no fair and free election if Musharraf was the president of Pakistan. His party is urging voters to stay at home on February 18th, but Maulana Fazal Ur Rehman of JUI is fighting the election battle. This time, he is trying to secure his seat not only from Dera Ismail Khan but also from Bannu.
PML-N, PPP and ANP are supporting independent candidate Malik Nasir Khan against Maulana Fazal in Bannu. Former MMA chief minister Akram Khan Durrani is running the campaign of Maulana in Bannu, but he is facing problems. The majority of the Bannu residents have their relatives in North Waziristan, which is only few kilometers away from their city. Bannu city hosted thousands of refugees last year when Mir Ali area of North Waziristan was bombed, allegedly to flush out Al Qaeda terrorists. JUI did nothing to help the refugees in Bannu, despite the fact that North Waziristan MNA Maulvi Nek Zaman and the CM of the province belonged to the same party.
It is interesting that Maulana Fazal ur Rehman is facing a united front of pro-Taliban and anti-Taliban elements in Bannu. Independent candidate Malik Nasir Khan is claiming that his opponent collaborated secretly not only with Musharraf but also with America to remain in power for five years. Maulana Fazal decided to contest from Bannu because he was feeling insecure in his old Dera constituency. Faisal Karim Kundi of PPP will give a tough fight to Maulana in Dera, which is close to South Waziristan. Militants of South Waziristan are also not happy with Maulana. They don't believe in democracy but they are supporting opponents of Mualana.
This time religious Maulanas cannot win more than 5-6 seats in the settled areas of NWFP, because militants have not allowed them to use the name of Taliban for exploiting anti-Americanism. Voters are fed-up of their internal differences and double games. They may get some more seats out of 12 tribal area seats, but their candidates in Fata were denied the election symbol of book. All the former MMA legislatures from the tribal area now claiming that they were independents, but they may again support their mother party if circumstances allow them to.
Awami National Party (ANP) of Asfand Yar Wali Khan is hot favourite in the Pashtu speaking areas of NWFP. A grandson of Khan Abul Ghaffar Khan (Sarhadi Gandhi), Asfand Yar is contesting from two seats of Charsada and Sawabi. His candidates are strong in 12 seats of the province. PPP have good candidates in 7 seats in NWFP. PML-N have 6 good candidates in Kohat, Abbotabad and Mansehra. PML-Q may win the seats of former state minister for finance Omer Ayub Khan from Haripur, Muhammad Nawaz Khan from Battagram and Hamayun Saifullah from Lakki Marwat. Former interior minister Aftab Sherpao can also win his seat from Charsada. Independent candidate Mian Gul Adnan Aurangzeb can win from the troubled area of Swat (NA-30) because he belongs to the former princely family of the state, which is still very well respected in the upper Swat.
Baluchistan has 14 seats for the national assembly. The main nationalist parties of the province have boycotted the election, and the field is open for PML-Q and JUI here. PML-Q can win the 7 seats of Quetta, Pishin, Killa Abdullah, Sibi-kuhlo, Bolan and Lasbela. The traditional seat of late Nawab Akbar Bugti, NA-265, may go to his old tribal rival Mir Ahmadan Bugti, who entered the area two years ago with the help of security forces. JUI is suffering from serious internal crisis here, but it can still easily win two seats of Maulana Muhammad Khan Sherani (Zhob) and Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Haidri (Kalat-Mastung). NA-269 of Khuzdar will have a tough fight between an independent candidate Usman advocate and PML-Q's Atta-ur-Rehman Mengal.
Lt.Gen (Rtd) Abdul Qadir Baluch has good chances in NA-271 of Kharan-Panjgur as an independent candidate. He served as governor under Musharraf for some years, but now he is opposing Musharraf. Another former minister of the previous regime, Zubaida Jalal, is fighting independently from Kech-Gawadar seat with the help of PPP. She will have a close fight with another independent, Yaqoob Bizenjo, supported by nationalists. Ultimately, Baluchistan will again be dominated by PML-Q and JUI. This time, Sardar Yar Muhammad Rind will be a strong candidate for chief ministership, rather than Jam Yousaf who ruled the province previously without any good governance.
Election 2008 is just few days away, but the big parties have still not announced their prime ministerial candidates. PML-Q had a secret deal with Maulana Fazal ur Rehman before the imposition of emergency last year. It was not a secret that PML-Q offered prime minister ship to Maulana in return for his support for the election of the President Musharraf. Maulana fulfilled his promise, but his party was broken due to his unannounced support for Musharraf. He is no more in a position to get 60-70 seats.
PML-Q have decided to field Chaudhry Pervez Elahi as the candidate for prime minister. At least 20 PPP candidates from Punjab were in contact with those who were taking care of PML-Q for five years. A lot of money was distributed among many "needy" PML-Q candidates. Some influential supporters of PML-Q are still confident of getting at least 100 seats in the national assembly, but it will be possible only with the manipulation of results. They are not ready to admit that December 27th changed everything.
Now PML-Q is concentrating more on defending Punjab. Chaudhry Pervez Elahi is not going outside Punjab for addressing public meetings. PPP sources are claiming that Makhdoom Amin Fahim and Aftab Shaban Mirani could be their candidates for the post of prime minister. These sources are claiming that if PPP does well in Punjab and bags more than 70 seats from that province, then the party may think of nominating a prime minister from Punjab because the total number of PPP in the assembly could increase to around 112. In that case, the president of PPP Punjab, Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, will be a candidate for prime ministership.
No doubt that PPP can come into power if there is a free and fair election on February 18th. PPP Co-Chairman Asif Zardari recently said that his party would participate in the election under protest because the whole state machinery was at the disposal of PML-Q. The caretaker prime minister Mr.Soomro belongs to PML-Q, and Zardari is not ready to admit that his administration is impartial. He is also concerned about some quiet advice to play down his statements. He said that if there was rigging then the current rulers would be taking Pakistan back to 1971, when the country disintegrated. He has instructed his polling agents as well as voters not to leave polling stations until the results were announced.
Many influential diplomatic sources in the federal capital are suggesting a coalition government between PPP and PML-Q. Political observers see less chance of that because PPP is no more ready to trust blindly those who forced them to reconcile with PML-Q, because of which PPP suffered a lot. PPP will be more comfortable in forming a coalition with PML-N, ANP and maybe with pro-Musharraf MQM in Sindh. Coming to power will be a new challenge for PPP and its allies. This party will have to resolve the issue of imbalance between the powers of the president and the prime minister in a parliamentary democracy. If this is not resolved, it may create more political instability, and the process of change started on February 18th may not be completed positively.
A hung parliament may not bring a positive change in Pakistan quickly. Only a parliament having clear majority for some party can change the fate of Pakistan. Only a strong parliament can promote the independence of The judiciary and freedom of the media. Democracy cannot flourish without an independent judiciary and free media. True democracy is the only way to save Pakistan today. Voters can do that by coming out in big numbers on election day. The voter's turnout in 2002 election was 41 percent. If there is a turnout of 60 percent in election 2008 then Pakistan will definitely move fast on the path of change.
Some anti-change forces will try to force voters to stay at home.
They may create a law and order situation and spread terror on election day. Pro-change forces have to break the fear of terror and must encourage voters to come out on election day. Febraury 18th will be a real day of war against terror. It will also be the last chance for true democracy in Pakistan. Pakistanis must defeat terror and tyranny by vote-power and will-power on that day. They have to save democracy, and also save Pakistan, on February 18th.

Hamid Mir is a freelance contributor to The Daily Star.