Population growth and effects of age-structure
In 2001, the median age of Bangladesh population was about 18 years. From 1951, the death rate started declining but with little effect on birth rate. The population increased from 40.21 million in 1951, 89.9 million in 1981,109.9 million in 1991and 130.5 million in 2001. As the second phase of the theory of demographic transition has been passing through the composition of census data of 1974, 1981, 1991 and 2001 respectively, show the "baby boom" generation and slight edge of the population in the old ages.
In the context of the present characteristics of young population, the rapid population growth accompanied with the ageing of population has its impact on bio-social and socio-economic aspects of the population. The high population growth rate of Bangladesh is caused not only by current or high past fertility but also by the "momentum" created by the high fertility and falling mortality in the past five decades.
Past high fertility and falling mortality mean that women currently entering the child-bearing age group constitute a large proportion of the total female population, and this proportion will continue to increase in this mid-century.
In Bangladesh, the next generation of adult women will outnumber the previous one. Thus, even if the number of births per woman declines rapidly, the birth rates may stay high and the total number of births may be greater than before. Consequently, the growth rate may remain virtually unchanged. The reasons for this may perhaps be found in the changes that occurred during the previous decades in the age-sex distribution, which were highly unfavourable to a decline in the birth rate.
In Bangladesh, the potential exists for a second-generation "baby boom" resulting from this changing age structure. Unless compensated for by a rapid fall in the fertility of younger married women, who should be reached by more effective family planning programmes and benefited by other associated socio-economic improvements, birth rates and population growth rates are unlikely to fall. In considering the future policy direction for fertility regulation, it is important to take note of this emerging phenomenon.
During the transition from high to low fertility in Bangladesh, an unprecedented proportion of the population will be between the age 15 and 64 years, which are roughly the working ages. The working-age population will increase at a rate considerably higher than that of the total population, and initially the larger increments in absolute terms will be to the younger half the working ages. The rapid increase in the population in the younger working ages between 2010 and 2020 will pose a serious challenge to Bangladesh to generate sufficient employment opportunities.
In the coming several decades, however, the age structure in Bangladesh will be specially conducive to sustained social and economic development. Between the years 2010 and 2020, the dependency ratio will be low and the number persons for labour-force age will comprise a high proportion of the total population but will be expanding only slowly. The country trends cited above will vary somewhat, depending on her current level of fertility.
In Bangladesh, practically, there will be an increase in the proportion of the population in the higher age group (65 years and older). Despite such increase, this proportion will remain relatively small. The rapidly escalating numbers of elderly people and their increasing share in the population of the country have given rise to a number of considerations which have numerous implications for policy formulation.
Social and economic trends in the country suggest the possibility that parents will not be able to assume that their children will be in a position to care for them in their old age. In some rural areas, the migration of young adults to the cities raises questions about the care which elderly in the villages can expect. Public housing policies should take cognisance of the need to encourage three-and four-generation households. Policy makers should also consider the kinds of support required by the elderly who are living alone, or by families caring for elderly members, if the alternative of building old-age homes is to be avoided.
Appropriate retirement or employee provident fund schemes should be contemplated to ensure that a growing proportion of workers have a measure of income security when they leave work. Voluntary and charitable agencies should be encouraged to play an important role in caring for the aged. Such activities can be fostered by the government in providing financial and other support to the agencies so as to achieve greater results.
It is safe to assume that future fertility decline will not be as rapid as it was in the last decade. The overall growth of the population as well as the size and proportion of women of child-bearing age and the labour force and dependent age population will be greatly affected by the changing structure.
It is important to note the change in the absolute size of this population because it has many important implications for development and population welfare programmes. This, therefore, calls for a strengthening of the existing national family planning programme in terms of both quality and quantity to tackle the impending "baby boom" and to enable further reduction in population growth rates.
Similarly, the faster growth of labour-force in the coming years of this century will require long-term perspective planning for necessary adjustment in manpower planning as well as the economy in general. Changes in age structure would also imply changes in consumption patterns and level of saving and investment. Therefore, planning for production, consumption, investment, distribution and so forth should reflect the changes in age structure.
In Bangladesh population age-structure problems remain a priority concern though they have made marked progress in slowing birth rates, but are still grappling with a variety of complex population issues. The situation is disturbingly stagnant in Bangladesh, where population increases regularly block gains in per capita income and defer many needed improvements in the quality of life.
Between now and 2025, the country will witness its maximum population growth. Such growth threatens severe implications not only in the alleviation of poverty but also in such matters as food supplies, employment, housing, health care, forests and other natural resources, and the environment.
Urban congestion, overtaxed infrastructure, pollution and proliferating slums squatter areas have already become serious concerns in Bangladesh, and an expected doubling in the size of large cities in the near future could produce explosive situations. Moreover, the struggle to cope with sheer quantities may divert crucial attention from the larger need to shape a more sustainable future for making.
In conclusion, we can say that no matter what we do, the population will continue to increase over the 40 years, that with tomorrow's mother already born, even major fall in family size would mean that many more babies would be born in the following generation than the present one. As such, the age-structure of population is an important field for policy planning and policy implementers to study.
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