Is Modi losing ground?

Is the tide turning in Gujarat? A month ago, most Gujarat politicians, bureaucrats, analysts and activists were agreed on the dead certainty of the Bharatiya Janata Party's victory in the Assembly election -- with a smaller margin. Today, they expect the BJP to lose -- despite the Congress's timid campaign.
The Congress skirted the 2002 violence, didn't take on the BJP's "glorious Gujarat" slogan, nor gathered the nerve to field more than half-a-dozen Muslims in a state where 20 Muslim MLAs used to get elected. But it might still get catapulted into power.
All exit polls after the first-phase voting in 87 constituencies (state total, 182) forecast a vote-swing against the BJP. NDTV forecasts a loss of 13 seats, placing the BJP behind the Congress. A defeat in Gujarat will be a seismic shock for the BJP and a historic setback for the Sangh Parivar. Mr LK Advani's laughable anointment as the BJP's prime ministerial candidate will only aggravate the shock.
Ideologically, the setback will be worse than the BJP's rout in the 2004 national elections. It will prove that anti-pluralist politics based on religious hatred isn't sustainable even in a "Hindutva laboratory" state.
Current estimates of the BJP's seats tally by government agencies vary from 70 to 80 seats, way below its 2002 score of 127. Even the party's assessment is reportedly that it's sure to win only 63 seats; and optimistically, another 15.
The BJP is clearly on a downswing in Gujarat. Four broad factors explain this big change -- shifts in the party's social support-base; reassertion of normal or mundane politics vis-à-vis ideology-driven politics; changed intra-Sangh Parivar relations; and Mr. Modi's personalised, confrontationist campaign.
The long expansion of the BJP's base in Gujarat has apparently ended. Between 1992 (Babri demolition) and the 2002 massacre, the BJP split the Congress's traditional base among Gujarat's "core minorities," comprised of Adivasis, Dalits and Muslims, and also among middle castes like Kolis.
Thanks to Hindutva, it attracted many Adivasi and Dalit votes in 2002. It disenfranchised Muslims and prevented them from voting.
However, over the past year or longer, these groups have been returning to the Congress. The BJP has lost much support amongst Kolis, and the powerful Leuva Patels, important in Saurashtra and Kutch (which elect almost a third of Gujarat's MLAs).
These shifts can eliminate, even reverse, the BJP's small 3 percentage-point vote lead over the Congress in 2004, itself down from 10 points in 2002. This seems to be happening in Saurashtra and the southern tribal belt, and in central and northern Gujarat. It's only among urban, upper-caste, upper-class Hindus that the BJP enjoys unshakable support. And although 40 percent of Gujarat's population is urban, the small upper-crust elite can't swing elections.
Second, Mr. Modi has tried to demolish normal, routine politics based on deal-making and patronage. He totally bypasses the party and the Parivar. Senior BJP functionaries have no access to him.
Mr Modi thought that the banner of Gujarat's asmita (glory), development and "vibrant Gujarat" would produce magic. But the asmita slogan couldn't cover up the chasms and sleaze in society. Development got reduced to worship of growth without inclusion. And "vibrant Gujarat" is going the way of "India shining" in 2004 -- exposing the BJP to popular scorn for celebrating dualistic growth.
Reality is catching up with Mr. Modi. Hindutva has become irrelevant to the public mood. Mundane issues like high electricity bills, expensive toll-ways and a wilting Bt-Cotton crop, are chipping away at the edifice Mr. Modi constructed out of tall claims about investment and industrialisation.
As this column noted seven weeks ago, Gujarat's is a case of unbalanced development. It's falling behind other large states in gender, health and environment indices -- 74 percent of its women and 47 percent of children are anaemic. Gujarat's infant mortality and malnutrition rates remain stubbornly high.
Gujarat's patriarchy indices are frightening. The sex-ratio is an abysmal 487:1000 in the 0-4 age-group and 571 in the 5-9 group (national averages, 515 and 632). Gujarat's health indices are barely higher than Orissa's. In social sector spending (as a proportion of public expenditure), Gujarat is second lowest among India's 21 major states.
The Mumbai-based Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy says the Gujarat's power deficit this year averaged 10.7 percent and peaked at 23.7 percent. This helped the Congress put Mr Modi on the mat on "development."
A third adverse factor for Mr Modi is serious infighting in the BJP. More than 40 rebels are challenging official candidates. The RSS, Vishwa Hindu Parishad, Bharatiya Kisan Sangh and other Sangh fronts have decided not to help the BJP.
Absence of door-to-door campaigning by RSS pracharaks will be a major blow to the BJP. As will the absence of canvassing by the Hindu-proselytising Vanavasi Kalyan Ashram in the tribal areas. Once, these groups produced pro-BJP synergy, crucial in elections. Now they'll work against the party -- a double whammy.
Finally, Mr. Modi ran a sectarian, foul and demagogic campaign with countless low-level tactics, but failed to attract large audiences. No other BJP leader got a good response either. By contrast, Congress leaders' rallies were well-attended. Although their campaign was weak on secularism and justice, it cornered Mr. Modi on governance.
In response, a desperate Mr. Modi played the anti-Muslim card. He shamelessly justified the cold-blooded murder of Sohrabuddin Shaikh in a "fake encounter," and maligned Muslims. This blatantly violated the Election Commission's Code of Conduct, which prohibits hate speech. It was also a shocking admission of the state's complicity in murder. Ironically, this will only encourage Muslims to go and vote against Mr Modi.
The Election Commission has taken note of his grave electoral malpractice. Sadly, to appear "even-handed," it also issued notice to Ms. Sonia Gandhi for her "merchants of death" speech. But the two speeches aren't even remotely comparable.
The EC must correct this error and severely punish Mr. Modi. But what he needs most is political punishment -- from Gujarat's electorate.
Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.