Food crisis not imminent

Fears of food crisis are emanating from rising food prices and disruption in production, but Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in Bangladesh said everything is still okay and the situation is completely different from the food crisis of 2007-08.
"At the moment, I would say that the price of food is a concern. It has to be watched very carefully. There is no crisis now that we should compare with the situation in 2007-08," FAO Representative in Bangladesh Ad Spijkers told The Daily Star yesterday.
He was speaking on the sidelines of a discussion at National Press Club on the need for comprehensive agrarian reforms to attain food security, employment and economic growth.
Campaign for Sustainable Rural Livelihoods (CSRL), an alliance of 200 NGOs, Online Knowledge Centre and Agricultural Reporters Forum organised the programme, where discussants feared another food crisis as food prices are rising on global and local markets.
They said a food crisis might increase hunger both at national and international levels.
In the past couple of months, the price of grains, such as wheat and rice, surged mainly because of an export ban by Russia. Floods in Pakistan and China, a decline in wheat output in the US, and a low production outlook for corn, are also pushing prices up on speculations of tight supply.
"In September, wheat prices were 60-80 percent higher than at the beginning of the season in July," said FAO.
Quoting an Oxfam International report, M Iqbal Ahmed, policy officer of Oxfam Bangla-desh, said another food crisis might happen.
The Oxfam International, in its September 2010 briefing, blamed stimulus to biofuels, speculation on commodities, a growth in demand for meat and energy in emerging countries, and stagnation of agricultural productivity, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, for the food price spike on the world market.
Ahmed said the world food system has become volatile due to increasing intensity and frequency of natural disasters due to climate change, as evident from the latest floods in Pakistan.
Nationally, prices of essential commodities, like rice, flour and edible oil, have been on the rise.
On a year-on-year basis, the retail price of coarse rice surged 43 percent to Tk 32-34 a kilogram, although there was good crop.
Spijkers said the prospect of transplanted Aman is still very good. At the same time, global production is also favourable.
In its latest forecast, FAO expected that global cereal production would be about 2,239 million tonnes, only 1 percent lower than last year's.
"At the current forecast level, the 2010 cereal production, coupled with large carry-over stocks, should be adequate to cover projected world cereal utilisation in 2010-11," it added.
Spijkers said: "We have to be cautious, not to give the wrong signal. The situation of 2007-08 is completely different from now."
"The prospect of T (transplanted) Aman is still very good. So I think it's too early now. Let's wait another two-three months to see the situation."
But he added that the price of food would never become cheaper. "This is an international phenomena and for Bangladesh, the price of rice should be kept as stable as possible."
General Secretary of CSRL Ziaul Hoque Mukta said more than 5 percent of the people of Bangladesh live in hunger, out of nearly 100 crore in the world.
He said the food crisis of 2007-08 increased the number of people below the poverty line in Bangladesh.
The discussants suggested enhanced market monitoring to reduce speculation, hoarding and price volatility. They also recommended assisting the poor through food, safety net and nutrition programmes.