Can sanctions deter Iran?

THE Obama administration is mighty happy after the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1929 (2010) on June 9, slapping sanctions on Iran.
Iran has been at odds with the West over its nuclear program. Iran is a signatory of the NPT and is within its rights to develop nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes. According to the treaty, a signatory is required to report to the IAEA about its uranium enrichment program. Iran has continued with its enrichment activities clandestinely, which came to light in 2003.
Since then, the West has accused Iran of developing a nuclear bomb. Iran so far has been able to enrich uranium up to 5%, which is needed for power generation. To make a nuclear device uranium has to be enriched up to 90%.
The trust gap has since widened progressively between the Islamic Republic and the West. Resolutions have been passed by the UNSC in the past to stop Iran from all kinds uranium enrichment activities. But Iran has continued with its policy.
Resolution 1929 imposes fresh sanctions on Iran, calling upon the Islamic Republic to suspend its nuclear activities. Amongst the 15 members of the Security Council, all five permanent members voted in favour. Among the non-permanent members, Brazil and Turkey voted against and Lebanon abstained.
The 8-page resolution is a complicated document. It is, in fact, an extension of the last one -- Resolution 1747 (2007). It is an attempt to squeeze Iran economically and compel it to submission.
The fourth round of sanctions include: Arms embargo; any state's ability to inspect suspected cargo, to and from Iran, on the high seas; travel ban on officials associated with the Iranian nuclear program and freezing their assets abroad; travel ban on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and freezing their assets; block on all financial transactions with Iranian Central Bank and other banks related with the program; and embargo on Iranian companies related to the nuclear program.
Interestingly, the sanction does not cover oil exports from Iran. This may be due to the fact that China is one of the largest buyers of Iranian oil. Besides, the US and its allies do not want an oil crisis now when their economies are just peeping out of recession.
The arms embargo is not comprehensive either. Iran can buy light weapons. It is also allowed to buy surface-to-air missiles from Russia. Evidently, the Russians excluded these from the resolution. The financial transaction ban is also selective.
The new resolution does not speak of any military action if Iran does not comply. But worries will continue to be there, particularly from Israel. The IAEA has been asked to be more vigilant and report all of Iran's activities.
On May 17, Brazil, Turkey and Iran signed a uranium swap deal in Tehran. Under the deal, Iran agreed to deposit 1,200 kg of Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) to Turkey. Iran needs 120 kg of LEU for its Tehran Research Reactor. According to the deal, Iran's use of LEU would have been guided by the Vienna Group -- US, Russia, France and IAEA.
The Tehran deal was actually concluded to ward off the new sanctions that the US was pushing for the past eight months. The negotiations' last rounds, held in Geneva in October 2009 between the P5 + Germany -- known as the "six-party" -- and Iran actually failed. Since then, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was pushing for "tough sanctions" against Iran.
On the face of it, the new set of sanctions may not be economically crippling. But there are other worrying implications, which has hardened President Ahmedinejad's position. The European Union, United States and their allies around the world will now have the legal basis to twist and extend the interpretation of Resolution 1929 and take tough actions against Iran.
The US administration hopes that the sanctions will lead to Iran's financial insolvency, creating sufferings to poor citizens, which in turn will fuel the opposition "Green Movement" (led by former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi) and topple the cleric-backed regime of President Ahmedinejad.
Since the new embargoes will not have much effect on Iran's oil revenues, the lifeblood of its economy, it is unlikely that the "Green Movement" will be able to cash in on the difficulties caused by the new sanctions.
There is another worry for the US and Israel now. Turkey's negative vote at the Security Council and its gradual warming of relations with Iran and Syria needs to be watched closely.
Over the past couple of years, the foreign policy of Turkey, an important Nato member, seems to have undergone some significant shift. It now looks at the Arab world as a friendly neighbourhood than the West.
Its relations with Israel has suffered major a setback after Israel killed several Turks in its ship "Mavi Marmara" in the Gaza Peace Flotilla on May 31. Turkey's attempt to join the European Union has gone cold. Turkey is surely drifting away from the Western fold.
It appears that a new axis is in the offing in the Middle East. Turkey, Iran and Syria may forge an alliance to replace the old group of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria.
The Revolutionary Guards, which is the backbone of the Ayatollahs and controls the nuclear and ballistic missiles programs, have developed elaborate mechanisms to go around previous sanctions.
Russia and China have considerable economic and commercial interests in Iran and have been wary about sanctions. In the process of protecting their interests, they may help Iran indirectly. They may allow Iran to go around the sanctions through third-party companies. Even Turkey and far-off Venezuela may try to help Iran to circumvent the sanctions.
Iran has been defiant all along and continued with the enrichment program. President Ahmedinejad has stated that the new sanction was a "wrong" decision and needs to be trashed. Iran shall not deter from its goal. He also threatened that Iran may now limit the access of IAEA inspectors to Iranian nuclear facilities.
The hypocrisy of the US and its allies come to the fore when fingers are pointed at Israel, which has not signed the NPT and is an undeclared nuclear weapon state. It has been committing crimes against humanity with impunity. Yet, Washington continues to protect it. But when it comes to Iran, the West does not spare it from condemnation and threatens all kinds of consequences.
The UNSC resolution is a Pyrrhic victory for President Obama. He could have achieved much more through negotiations. If the past is any guide, then Iran will break but not bend.
Mahmood Hasan, former Ambassador and Secretary, is Policy Advisor, Center for Foreign Affairs Studies.