Cyclone Sidr: A grim omen

For the first time since 1990, we are facing the aftermath of a severe cyclonic storm that has killed hundreds and devastated countless homes. Only those who are victims can say how serious the situation is, but the reports and images that we see speak of nature at its most cruel.
Bangladesh is no stranger to such disasters, but when such mega ones occur we are left helpless and wondering. What we will be doing is counting the cost and trying to cope. However, that is neither easy nor always possible, and could be more difficult in the days to come given the potential impact of climate change.
The most severe storm in recent memory was the cyclone of 1970. It may be described as the most far-reaching disaster in our history, because the paucity of response by the Pakistani ruling class turned into a political issue. Bengalis saw this as a sign of the neglectful attitude of the central leadership, and decided once and for all to register their rage with votes that led to the Awami League sweep in the elections a few months later. Natural disasters always have a political component in our history.
The next cyclone of such a scale occurred in 1990, which killed over 60,000 people, and other losses can be imagined. In fact, the loss of life was low compared to the ferocity of the storm. This is because Bangladeshi disaster managers have developed several prevention, protection, and coping models which have substantially reduced the high numbers of death and injury.
The highly organised evacuations, construction of public facilities to also become shelters in times of cyclones, and the extensive warning system at the community level, have all been developed after 1990. Since then, the loss of lives has dramatically fallen due to the coping systems put in place.
Point is, is that enough? What one can't do much about is devastation caused to property, resources, livelihood, crops, shelters, homes and the state of insecurity that makes life miserable. Disasters push life down to greater poverty, making all efforts to improve it extremely difficult.
General vulnerability to disasters: Now and the future
Bangladesh is one of the most disaster-hit countries of the world. A list of its vulnerabilities makes for painful reading. There are storms, floods, drought, river erosion, earthquakes, salinity, arsenic contamination of ground water, mud slides, etc, and now we have the mother of all disasters, climate change that may drown as much as one third of Bangladesh through sea level rise. Very few, if any, countries have to cope with so many disasters, and one wonders how many more are waiting to happen.
It seems that we have been selected to test humanity's natural resilience, but many are asking how much more can we take.
Other cyclones that have hit will become more regular in future, going by what scientists say. If seventy major storms occurred in Bangladesh in the last hundred years, we can expect another hundred in the next fifty. Climatologists pull no punches when saying how bad the situation can get due to climate change. Some of the things have already been set in stone including droughts, salinity, sea level rise and crop destruction.
Bangladesh doesn't present a merry future to any lay observer either. That Bangladesh has done little to create the present situation has no meaning, as nobody is coming forward to accept any responsibility or provide assistance.
Yet, however despairing our future may look now, we have to try to make amends for other people's wrongs. The hyper-consumption pattern of the west has brought the world to a situation near extreme disaster, and it's the poorest who are being worst affected. Not just the poorest part of the world, but the poorest inside the poorest countries suffer the most. As the reports of the cyclone Sidr comes through, we also learn how deeply suffering is differentiated.
Those already wretched become more miserable when disaster strikes, and we are observing the rise of disasters that even the less unfortunate find difficult to cope with. When the situation is like this, we must have diverse plans, which will contend with the effects of climate change locally, regionally and globally, to face it.
Must make addressing climate change our priority
There are several levels of dealing with disasters, but as one of the most, if not the most, disaster prone countries we need to revise several planning priorities. The existing level of interest of the Bangladeshi policy makers is low in this area, and even now disaster mitigation and risk reduction is just an incidental part of the government's management framework, not a key one. The efficiency of the disaster management set-up and the resources to make it effective are also low.
Going by reports, there is high interest is storm-shelter construction, but not enough in coping with disaster as the main threat to the Bangladesh state. It means making coping with climate change our top priority. That is far from today's reality. In fact, it's almost an invisible issue, limited to seminars and workshops and a few spotty activities.
We seem to lack a sense of will in wanting to tackle climate change. This is partly because we are not aware of its impact and partly, especially for those who might know, because the challenge seems too big. That mind-set has to change.
Unless we robustly engage with global players on the issue, and ask what those who are responsible going to do what they have done and turn it into a global movement for rolling it back, the irresponsible consumers of the West will never bother to answer. This needs to be done at various levels and fora, and should be part of our national policy.
We need to educate our policy makers too about climate change to make sure that they can negotiate on it as an issue at the international level. Unless that is done, our future governments will be unable to rule, no matter what kind of governments they may be. And the misery of the people will be such that millions may depart for other countries and cause such a situation that the region may be plunged into a serious political catastrophe.
Climate change will cause more storms but it's a good reminder of what the future holds for all. It will affect everyone and everyone needs to do something. Bangladesh is a poor man's country and our policies must reflect that reality. We are far from it, but we must try first by putting our own house in order so that when we demand compensation from the developed world for drowning us, they will listen.
Enayetullah Khan is Editor-in-Chief, UNB.