Chancellor Angela Merkel's political woes

The election on September 27 in Germany gave Chancellor Angela Merkel a resounding victory for her dream Centre-Right coalition. She first became the chancellor in 2005.
The three parties of the Left -- Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Left Party and the Greens -- saw their combined votes slip from 51% to 45.6%.
People expect that Merkel will take this great opportunity to undertake reforms in the country and to show leadership.
In spite of the victory of her dream-coalition of conservatives and the pro-business Free Democrats there is now great disappointment among the public, partly because of in-fighting among coalition parties and partly because of her lack of direction.
The Free Democrats want to quickly introduce lower taxes and reforms but her party is divided over the issue. The Free Democrats want a simplified tax system and cut in the top rate from 50% to 35%.
On December 18, Merkel, reportedly under pressure, cut taxes worth $1.2 trillion for families, including big tax breaks for hotels. These tax benefits have become deeply unpopular with the public because Germany needs savings and not tax cuts during the global economic recession.
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble is the only one taking about a radical savings plan. It appears that Merkel has left it to her finance minister to explain the parlous state of Germany's finances.
The Free Democrats also want to unravel health reforms by opening up the market for private medical insurers and argue against Merkel's plans to expand the powers of the domestic intelligence service. Equally, there is tension over the Free Democrats' desire to wind back anti-terrorism surveillance.
In foreign policy, the new government is expected to adopt a more assertive role in the world. Currently, there is little to boast about in foreign policy.
Her role in the recent Copenhagen Climate Change conference is widely seen as a failure because Denmark has taken the initiative in combating the effects of climate change, although in 2005 Merkel made climate change as one of her major policy themes.
Gerhard Hirscher, a political analyst at the conservative-affiliated Hanns Seidel Foundation in Munich, says: "It is as if Ms. Merkel has lost interest in foreign policy."
Afghanistan is the biggest foreign policy headache because the German public do not approve of keeping their troops in the war-torn zone. Furthermore, the German commander had caused an uproar in September when he was responsible for the deaths of 142 people, including civilians, in Kunduz (Afghanistan) because he ordered Nato aircraft to bomb two "hijacked" tankers. Now both Merkel and her defence minister Guttenberg may face unpleasant questions by a special parliamentary inquiry committee.
The defence ministry's perceived "deception" about the extent of German involvement in the war has already led to the resignations of the former defence minister, the top commander and a leading official. Pressure is mounting on Merkel and the new defence minister to reveal precisely how much they knew and when about the Kunduz incident.
This matters greatly because two-thirds of voters are dissatisfied with Germany's role, even if it is presented as peacekeeping rather than involvement in a war -- still a taboo in political discourse. Merkel can expect little help from opposition parties in making a choice between deeper involvement in, or gradual withdrawal from, Afghanistan.
Against this background, when President Obama wanted to know whether Germany would send additional troops to Afghanistan, it is understandable that Merkel avoided giving a response. She has kept the US administration waiting.
Merkel's supporters are concerned about the growing perception of her lack of leadership and direction. One analyst says that Merkel prefers to moderate rather than lead, especially when the coalition is being pulled in many ways on how to deal with the economic crisis. For the first time since 2005, she is facing rebellion within.
Naturally, Merkel wants her conservative party (Christian Democratic Union) to avoid defeat in regional elections next year. But the warning from Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble that drastic budget cuts will be needed next year foreshadows bitter political rows within and without government.
Having consolidated her leadership by cautious and artful compromise in her first term as German chancellor, Chancellor Merkel is finding the going harder only months after her solid victory in September's elections. Along with difficult choices on economic policy with her Free Democrats coalition partners, she faces a growing crisis on Germany's role in Afghanistan. Voters and political colleagues alike complain they are unsure about her real objectives.
This has emboldened the opposition Social Democrats, and competing with a stronger Left Party has left Merkel little room for maneuver.
It is noted that the outcome of the last election has split the Germans -- between Right and Left. The combined Social Democrats and its Left allies won 46% of the popular votes while the party of the Chancellor and its allies won 48%. Under these circumstances, Angela Merkel is likely to faces political hurdles in the months ahead.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.