Climate change equity

TIME is ticking -- less than 90 days -- towards the 15th conference of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen (COP15) for adopting a new protocol, replacing the Kyoto Protocol, which will expire in 2012. A total of 8,000 people -- government officials, NGOs, journalists, and others -- from 170 countries are expected in COP15 (December 7 18).
Numerous UNFCCC meetings have been taking place throughout the year to formulate effective international measures to negotiate a climate change agreement in COP15.
The Bonn negotiating meetings in June were attended by delegates from 183 countries. One most important negotiating issue -- which the Kyoto Protocol is yet to achieve -- is emission reduction target (ERT) of 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by year 2020 for industrialised countries, along with individual country targets.
The just ended World Climate Change Conference Three in Geneva -- organised by the World Meteorological Organization -- was aimed at bringing awareness of climate variability and climate services to countries, including the use of climate predictions through sustained and coordinated processing of environmental satellite data. For example, satellites make ozone observations and monitor rising sea levels. The declarations adopted in Geneva will constitute a key contribution to the COP15 in December 2009.
All these efforts went into high gear after the publication of a study by the UN Global Humanitarian Forum. The study -- for the first time -- claimed that globally around 98% of all people are seriously debilitated, 99% of all deaths occur from weather-induced disasters, and 90% of the total economic losses are now endured by developing countries. The people most at risk live in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and the small Pacific island states. The risk is most severe in Bangladesh, Egypt, Africa, coastal zones and forest areas.
In terms of raw numbers, global warming is already affecting 300 million people annually. Severe heat waves, floods, storms, and forest fires may claim as many as 500,000 deaths a year by 2030, making climate change the most disastrous humanitarian challenge the world community faces. Today, the economic cost of climate change exceeds $125 billion a year -- more than the present global aid. By 2030, the cost could easily reach $600 billion a year (The Guardian, May 29).
The developed nations are analysing these data for long-term implications, and predict that unless weather inflicted environmental degradations are reversed or drastically slowed, many poor countries would potentially be facing social and political instabilities leading to failed state status.
Indonesia -- the fifth biggest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter after US, China, Russia and India -- has been projected to reach an emission level of 3.6 gigatonnes by 2030. However, the country has promised a 40% emission cut by 2030 relative to 2005 levels of 2.3 gigatonnes, if it receives international support.
The G8 summiteers in L'aquila, Italy, agreed on July 8 to a goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) and cut GHG emissions by 80%, but failed to persuade China and India to halving it by 2050. The UK has embarked on plans to reduce its emissions by one-third by 2020 compared to 1990.
On June 26, the US House of Representatives passed a cap and trade bill (CAT) to restrict CO2 emissions to 83% of 2005 levels by 2020 and to 17% by 2050. The US Senates is yet to pass the bill. The G8 countries also proposed the creation of a global carbon trading market -- patterned after the US CAT bill -- and a fund financed by rich nations to pay for technological renovations (See my July 13 article "Politiconomy of CO2").
India and China are a disappointing story. After his visit to China last month, India's minister of state for environment claimed that China and India have forged an alliance of "standing 100 percent together" on issues of climate change and not to agree to any legal limits to be set by the COP15 convention, which, they argue, would negate their growth and development.
Given that by 2030 China will be the world's leading producer of GHG with India chasing to be third after the US, failing to make them agree to a considerable GHG emission limit would defeat the goals of the COP15 convention.
The developing countries, nevertheless, should follow Indonesia's lead. Estimates show that if Indonesia pursues a faster rate of reforestation while protecting its peatlands and slowing down on tree cutting, it could cut the level to 1.3 gigatonnes -- a 43% reduction on 2005 levels. This approach is also cheaper compared with reducing emissions from industries and power plants. For example, Lord Nicholas Stern has estimated that the world could stop half of the current deforestation at a cost of $10b to $15b a year. However, no international agreement has yet been reached on how to compensate energy-starving poorer countries for protecting their forests and peatlands.
Unlike India and China, the chairs of the parliamentary committees on climate of Bangladesh and UK, Saber Chowdhury MP and Colin Challen MP respectively, formed a group to launch a "joint inquiry" on climate change with specific reference to the issue of "Climate Change Equity."
Although Bangladesh is least responsible for GHGs, it is, however, most vulnerable to it. Hence, the issue of equity in compensating Bangladesh with financial and technological (weather satellite) support should be an overriding consideration. The country's immediate need is rapid transition to clean energy; infrastructure development for protecting coastal areas against tidal waves; and construction of long-range water conduits from flood-affected to drought-stricken regions to boost food production and employment Chairman Colin Challen argues: "Countries like Bangladesh did not cause climate change, but they also seem to be penalized for it." He wonders why Bangladesh with very low CO2 footprints has been deprived from benefiting from the Clean Development Mechanism -- having only two CDM projects implemented so far.
"Climate change, for Bangladesh, is a development challenge as well as a human rights and justice issue," argues Chairman Saber Chowdhury. Recurrent weather induced devastations are by far the most indisputable factors holding Bangladesh from making progress in poverty reduction.
Given Bangladesh's history of weather imposed devastations and inestimable sufferings, industrialised countries must address the climate change equity issue head-on.

Dr. Abdullah A. Dewan, founder of politiconomy.com, is a Professor of Economics at Eastern Michigan University.