Crime ‘stable’ at 11 murders, 15 rapes a day!

A government statement claiming there has been no significant rise in crime begins with the observation that recent news reports, hinting at a spike in crime, are "fuelling fear and insecurity among citizens".

The chief adviser's press wing goes on to assert that the official crime statistics from September 2024 to June 2025 do not "completely" support the claim that crime is sharply rising this year. "In fact, the data reveals stabilisation in major crime categories over the past 10 months."

These are not the "hallmarks of a crime wave" because some serious crimes are supposedly either "declining or stable", CA's press wing claims.

It says, "Citizens should remain vigilant but also trust that law enforcement is maintaining control, as reflected by relatively stable crime trends."

Before going into the two tables provided by the press wing, the rhetoric begs to be examined. The statement seems to blame the media for fuelling fear and insecurity through its inaccurate reporting, much of which was triggered by the gruesome death of a scrap trader in Old Dhaka, at a stone's throw from an Ansar office.

The press wing then presses the point that crime has stabilised, not risen; that it is declining or stable. The language belies the extent of insensitivity of the chief adviser's spokespersons when they talk about murder, rape and child abuse as if it were exchange rates of currencies. They further suggest that the people should be relieved since crime trends are holding steady, and that too because law enforcers are at work.

In other words, rapists can continue raping, murderers can go around killing people just as they did last month because the police are in control. It is because the law enforcement agencies are working hard that crime is stable, the statement claims.

Turning to the numbers, provided by the press wing (which they said was sourced from the police), murder, rape, and violence and against women and children have risen since January 2025. There was a drop in the number of rapes in February while violence against women and children showed a drop in June.

Murders rose by 17 percent from 294 in January 2025 to 344 in June. Rapes rose by 25 percent from 392 in January to 492 in June, with February registering a decline with 337 rapes. Violence against women and children rose from 1,048 in January to 1,441 instances in June, peaking in May with 1,584 cases.

Comparing the data of the first six months this year to another year might give a better idea of the crime trend. There were 1,933 murders in the first six months of 2025. In other words, almost 11 (10.74) people were murdered every day compared to 8.28 every day in 2023. There were 2,744 rapes till June 2025. That is, just over 15 women were raped every day so far this year compared to just over 14 a day in 2023. Perhaps the most damning indictment for the government is its failure to protect children. There were 2,159 instances of violence against children between January and June this year amounting to 12 children abused every day as opposed to 2,713 such instances in 2023, which is about 7.43 per day.

Since the latter half of 2024 was unstable and featured the July uprising, it would not be a fair comparison to understand the general trends, hence the comparison with the preceding year.

Police data show that violent crimes in the first half of 2025 outpaced the corresponding period of 2024 in almost every major category. Murders climbed by 25.93 percent, with 1,930 cases recorded this year, compared to 1,533 last year. However, police noted that over 400 of this year's cases involved incidents that occurred in previous years.

Repression against women and children rose by 22.29 percent, reaching 11,008 cases in the first half of 2025 -- just short of the 2021 peak of 11,240. In the same period last year, 9,002 cases were reported.

Earlier this month, Bangladesh Mahila Parishad noted that the number of rape cases between January and June this year is nearly as high as the total number of rape cases last year in their compilation of statistics based on 15 newspapers. The organisation reported 481 rapes -- 345 of them children. The number was 516 in entire 2024.

But far more than numbers, or mainstream media reports, public perception is shaped by social media and the barbarity of certain criminal acts. The grisly murder at Mitford and the mugging in Shyamoli where muggers stripped their victim of even his shirt have had a strong impact in the public mind about their own safety during early morning walks.

It does not reflect sensitivity on the part of the press wing if in reply to these genuine concerns they say, the trends are holding steady and numbers are not rising and whatever crime that is happening out there do not bear the "hallmarks of a crime wave". Crime statistics illustrate the state of security of the citizens, and as such, it is only natural to focus on the recent trend, the here and now.

This "stable crime trend", high as it is, can hardly be desirable for any government, although the current one appears to be missing the point entirely. Instead, it is trying, and failing, to present statistics in a manner that makes it look better.

In an ideal and truly democratic dispensation such a reaction from the government would be considered rather irresponsible and deliberately misleading.