Congress decimated: Why?

The result of the biggest exercise in democracy in the world is in our hands.  The outcome of the elections was stunning. Over 8,250 candidates from myriad political parties contested for the 543 seats. But two major political parties, the incumbent Congress and the main opposition BJP had fielded candidates to the constituencies spread all over India. The Congress was expected to lose to BJP due to its past political misdemeanors and mistakes. But it was inconceivable to anyone that it would lose as miserably to BJP as it has done. By the last count, the BJP captured 285 seats while Congress got 44 seats.   
There are many reasons behind the BJP victory, but one reason stands out. It is the leadership of Narendra Modi. He is a single-minded politician who could arouse the masses in India against corruption of Congress leaders, lack of leadership and lethargic governance which led to less than 4% GDP growth and high inflation. The result shows that BJP now has a single party majority in the Lok Sabha, and the Congress, even with the help of smaller parties, cannot challenge it. The era of coalition government is finally over in India.
So what are the other reasons behind the BJP success? Apart from Congress' poor performance in government, the party could not inspire the youth of India to vote for it. Over 100 million young people joined the Indian electorate this election year. Again, about 20% of the entire electorate of 814 million are young people. BJP election machinery used the social media and mobile telephones to carry its message of change that it wished to bring to the Indians if elected to power. It could successfully connect to 230 million voters. This is an unprecedented figure. Congress in contrast relied more on traditional contacts as it had done in the past. Its reach was short and its election message was weak. As the urban and semi-urban voters could be linked up by BJP, they rewarded it by giving it a resounding victory. Only the rural poor in faraway places in India could be reached by Congress. These voters were traditional supporters of Congress anyway. Thus the Congress party could connect with only 13 million voters.
What message has BJP given to the Indian electorate? First, that in the next 5 years BJP would change the way the country would be governed. By that, BJP means that it has an elaborate economic agenda. It would be a business and manufacturing friendly government. Bureaucratic procedures would be minimal in getting licenses to run businesses and factories. Money for investment in projects and infrastructure would be easily available. Modi's government would support development work in the urban and rural areas equally. Efficiency would be the object in running business in India. This would be in line with what he had done in his own state of Gujarat where he had been chief minister three times.
Besides the economic agenda, BJP has a social agenda. Its slogan has been 'toilets before temple.' By that, it gave the message that it will be prioritising basic sanitary and water needs of the people before investing on places of worship. The BJP also has a political agenda. In the first press conference after its election victory, the BJP president clearly said that the success of the BJP is not its own but belongs to the people of India at large, transcending all religious groups, castes, creeds and persuasions. By saying that, it clearly indicated that it has drawn its support not only from Hindu majority population but from all sections of the population. How much of this is a true reflection of its political agenda needs further ascertaining. Everybody knows that the BJP is a Hindu nationalist party with links to Hindu militant organisations like the RSS and the Biswa Hindu Parishad. They all want to look to Hindu interests first. But will the BJP, now that it has power in its grasp, stick to this agenda in the future? We have to wait and see how BJP treats minorities, including the Muslims, residing in that country.
The BJP victory in many ways can be attributed to Modi personally and his strong image. It is likely that he could turn out to be dictatorial in his demeanour in the future. But for his own good he will need to balance India's needs with his personal image. But there is no doubt now that BJP and Modi's victory has sounded the death knell of dynastic politics in India.
Will BJP victory mean that Bangladesh, whose Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had close relations with the outgoing Congress party, will get the short shrift in the future. One issue that may irk Modi is the legitimacy of the Awami League government. Modi himself has worked his way through a massive election and won. He might not be tolerant towards a government in neighbouring Bangladesh that has yet to prove its electoral victory on a level playing field. Is he likely to raise this when bilateral negotiations take place in future? It is too early to comment on this.
But there are several outstanding issues with India that need to be resolved. These include sharing of the water of the Teesta River, implementation of the Land Boundary Agreement between the two countries, firing by BSF along the border between Bangladesh and India, and duty free access of Bangladeshi products into the Indian market. Modi's approach may depend on what his administration's policies are towards India's other smaller neighbours. He can bring substantive improvement in relations among countries in South Asia. Let us see how things move between India and Bangladesh in the first 100 days of the Modi administration.

The writer is a former Ambassador and a commentator on contemporary events. E-mail: [email protected]