New-generation planes may dominate by 2045: Boeing

Boeing projected Friday a global commercial fleet of 50,000 planes in 2045, more than 90 percent of which will be more fuel-efficient “new-generation” aircraft.

That compares with today’s global fleet of 28,000 airplanes, reflecting higher long-term demand due to economic growth and additional travel routes. Plane manufacturers must build nearly 44,000 new planes over the next two decades to meet new growth and replace older planes, according to Boeing’s new annual forecast.

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The figures, released ahead of next week’s Farnborough Air Show in Britain, are similar to those in Boeing’s 2025 outlook, which also highlighted favorable travel demand dynamics in light of rising GDP.

In 2045, an estimated 92 percent of the fleet will have the environmental benefits of the newer fleet, estimated to use about 20 percent less fuel. About 32 percent of today’s fleet is composed of new-generation aircraft.

This year “isn’t going commercially from an industry airline perspective like I think a lot of us expected coming into 2026,” Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing Darren Hulst said at a briefing.

“However ... the fundamentals for air travel and demand for air travel are completely intact,” he added.

Hulst now expects 2026 travel demand to be “about half or even a little bit less” than what was expected heading into the year.

Boeing was surprised at how quickly airlines rerouted traffic from the Middle East to other markets due to the conflict, Hulst said.

“We saw, for example, passengers using hubs in Europe or Asia, or in some cases even North America, to transit their long-haul travel patterns,” said Hulst.

Between 2026 and 2045, Boeing’s forecast projects four percent annual passenger traffic growth and 2.5 percent global economic growth.

As with last year, Boeing’s outlook highlights the gap between new plane production and demand in light of supply chain difficulties since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Hulst said this “deficit” will probably not clear for single-aisle planes until the end of the 2020s and will go into the early 2030s for widebody jets.