BBS to start early forecast of rice and potato output

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics plans to start early forecasting of rice and potato production next year to reduce the information gap in the market and help keep the prices stable.

Traders sometimes hike prices of essential commodities, taking advantage of the information gap related to production, said Bidhan Baral, joint director of BBS.

“Our aim is to reduce that gap and help arrest price fluctuations,” Baral said at a workshop on agriculture market information system (AMIS), at the BBS office in Dhaka yesterday. 

The workshop was organised as part of a Tk 7 crore project to strengthen the information system in the agriculture market.

The aim of the project is to improve the quality of agriculture statistics through reviewing and updating the existing crop output estimation methodology. 

The statistical agency also aims to introduce crop forecasting for periodical monitoring. Baral, who is also the project director of AMIS, said the BBS estimates production of 126 crops, including cereal but the stakeholders have to wait for months to get output estimates.

As a result, the prices of the crops, particularly rice, fluctuate between the time of plantation and harvesting, he said.

The BBS wants to start forecasting about possible output from next boro cultivation, which usually begins in November-December.

The prediction will be made based on acreage, past production and factors that influence prices, Baral said.

The BBS also aims to improve production statistics of four crops -- rice, wheat, potato and maize -- by reviewing the existing methodology which has remained unchanged for more than three decades now.

Kaniz Fatema, secretary of Statistics and Informatics Division, and Mike Robson, country representative of Food and Agriculture Organisation, were also present at the workshop.