Indian State Polls: Northeast turns right

Manik Sarkar

Taking a giant leap in its Mission Northeast, India's ruling Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) yesterday scored its promised poriborton (change) in Tripura, ending the unchallenged 25-year rule of the Left and ejecting Manik Sarkar, reputed as India's poorest chief minister.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP and its allies are also ahead in the Christian-dominated mountainous state of Nagaland, while opposition Congress-ruled Meghalaya is heading for a fractured verdict.

With the results, BJP appears to have consolidated its position as the principal pole of Indian politics. The results also show that Congress continues to face multiple challenges to check its slide in the states.

The results are expected to help the BJP keep up its electoral momentum for the crucial electoral battle in Karnataka in about two months and expand its footprint to new areas for the crucial electoral battle in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The results are also expected to boost the morale of BJP workers in the difficult challenges the party faces to retain Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh at the end of the year.

With victory in Tripura, where the BJP had lost its deposit on 49 of 50 seats it contested in 2013 polls, the party has now set its eyes on winning Kerala, West Bengal and Odisha - three other states where it has traditionally been on a weak wicket.

The BJP is leading by 35 seats in the 60-seated Tripura Assembly.

BJP's victory in Tripura has come on the back of its victory in Assam and was its first direct contest with the Left parties.

Elections were held only in the states of Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya, where about nine million Indians live, according to the 2011 census. The three states have about 5.6 million voters, according to the election commission's website.

With yesterday's victory, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will gain control over five of the seven northeastern states reshaping the political landscape of the region bordering Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh.

The NDA already controls Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. Congress-ruled Mizoram will vote later this year.

Modi, who had extensively campaigned in the three states, attributed the win to the development work by his party and its allies.

"Time and again, election after election, the people of India are reposing their faith in the positive and development oriented agenda of the NDA," Modi tweeted.

"The historic victory in Tripura is as much an ideological one. It is a win for democracy over brute force and intimidation."

The demolition of four-time Chief Minister Manik Sarkar's almost impenetrable fortress in Tripura is most alarming news for the opposition in the first of a series of polls this year.

Biplab Kumar Dev, a 48-year-old former gym instructor and RSS volunteer, is emerging as the BJP's top pick for chief minister in Tripura.

BJP's strong showing in Tripura has come as a surprise for many as the party had secured less than 2 percent votes in the 2013 assembly elections. A look at the vote shares reveals that while the Left has lost 7 percent vote share in the state, it's the Congress's pathetic performance–its vote share dropped from 36.5 percent in 2013 to a minuscule 1.9 percent in 2018 helping BJP secure a massive win.

Congress leader Kamal Nath told reporters that his party is hopeful of forming the government in Meghalaya with support from other parties.

The ruling Congress emerged as the single largest party there after winning 21 seats out the 59 that went to polls last month.

The National People's Party (NPP) was at the second position with 19 seats, according the results. The BJP, which contested 47 seats, could win only two.

In Nagaland, BJP won 29 seats out of 60-seated Assembly and expected to form the government. Congress failed to win a single seat.

With control of Tripura and Nagaland, the right-wing BJP and its allies rule 21 of India's 29 states, boosting its prospects for a win in the federal elections scheduled for 2019.

India's main opposition Congress party, which has ruled the country for most of the time since independence in 1947, is now reduced to ruling three states.