Will election pledge resolve political unrest in Nepal?

King Gyanendra of Nepal has offered an olive branch to country's political parties in a bid to settle political unrest by pledging to hold parliamentary elections in early 2007. The political parties, clamouring for early return of democracy in the country, expectedly were not pacified by the announcement and instead urged the King to hold polls much earlier and not seek to cling to power. The King, who seized all powers in the Himalayan kingdom in February this year, by dismissing the elected prime minister, seems in no mood to heed this demand and, consequently, the stalemate persists. Nepal, embroiled in the twin problems of political unrest and a long drawn insurgency by the ultra leftist "Maoists", remains in crisis with little sign of early resolution of any of two vexed issues.

Nepal painstakingly introduced democracy in 1990, but the last nail was driven on the fragile political situation with the sacking of the elected prime ministers her Bahadur Deuba early this year by the King when a state of emergency was declared and many other restrictions imposed. The stringent moves drew sharp criticisms internally and internationally as these were seen as "killing of democracy" by the monarch, whose role was supposed to be largely ceremonial. Facing orchestrated calls for restoration of democracy, King Gyanendra slowly relaxed his absolute control and later withdrew the emergency. But he is demonstrating little sign to revert to democratic system even though pressure continues to mount on him for early elections and withdrawal of all undemocratic measures.

The landlocked nation admirably introduced parliamentary democracy replacing executive monarchy. The developments in the country in the form of sacking the elected prime minister and vesting all power in the monarchy cannot be commended since these measures are certainly taking the nation further away from representative character of governance. The current millenium had certainly begun on an ominous note for Nepal, which was otherwise a largely calm and peaceful country drawing huge tourists from all over and was making significant strides to change its economically weak image. Monarchy remained the constitutional head with an elected parliament and leader of the majority party or alliance at the helm as the prime minister to run the nation. But over the last five years, conditions have changed and the political situation is getting murkier.

A popular monarch King Birendra had to loosen his grip on powers facing a pro-democracy movement when he conceded to the demand of democracy in the country. However, political parties -- the Nepali Congress, the Communist Party (Marxist-Leninist) and other smaller groups -- could not show maturity in a new parliamentary democracy as intra-party rivalries as well as squabbles within the main Nepali Congress kept all in abeyance about the fate of democracy even though people favour representative system of government. The unstable political situation can be well judged by the fact that Nepal witnessed as many as thirteen premiers in fifteen years history of introduction of democracy. Nonetheless, nascent democracy was gaining experience. Later, a palace massacre wiped out King Birendra along with the mainstream royal family and this brought King's younger brother Gyanendra on the throne. He slowly consolidated power and turned the ceremonial monarchy once again into executive one.

The armed campaign by ultra leftists to dismantle the monarchy and set up a communist republic is costing the country heavily. Undoubtedly, the biggest headache for the King is the activities of the Maoists, who often engage themselves in fierce battles with the army and police causing big toll of lives on both sides. By this time they control a large area in the countryside. Efforts for a government-Maoists negotiation did not bear much fruit and consequently a stand-off situation exists as far as the fighting is concerned. Sometime ago, the radicals hit headlines by killing a large number of soldiers and taking another big number as hostage. This has compounded the imbroglio since the government spares no effort to contain the exacerbating situation.

The army has gone all out against the ultras with some success, but crushing the radicals remains a tall order. It is in this condition the "Maoists" have come out with the decision for a ceasefire for three months which is still in force but scattered fighting continues.

In the political front, King's relations with the political parties continue to worsen. Seven political parties which controlled 190 of the 205 seats in parliament are clamouring for return to democracy and early polls in that direction. But the King turned a blind eye to this demand although he says that representative governance will be restored on due course. Recently, two main political parties -- the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party (UML) expressed their opposition to King's earlier measures in turning the country constitutionally an effective monarchy. Obviously, this has further queered pitch of govt-opposition relationship. The King has come out with an offer to discuss all issues with the political parties. Earlier, the government was annoyed by the decision of the political parties for a dialogue with the "Maoists" whom the government sees as enemy of the country. Facing mounting pressures, the King finally announced general elections in February/March, 2007, but only to find that this plan is unlikely to placate the political parties.

Evidently, a country like Nepal can ill afford to absorb two serious crises -- stemming from political instability and the Maoist insurgency. If the reprieve as announced by the radicals by temporarily halting their armed activities was properly used by the government for facilitating better ties with the ultras despite the yawning gap between their respective positions, it could have created some scope for cessation of hostilities. But this does not seem to have happened and the bitter relations remain largely unaltered.

The King's announcement that parliamentary elections will be held in early 2007 and municipal polls next year is being seen by the political parties as an attempt to deflect international pressure on the country to restore representative government and blunt a unilateral three-month ceasefire by Maoist rebels put in effect early September. Political leaders including Nepali Congress chief and former premier Girija Prasad Koirala and General Secretary of the Communist Party (Marxist-Leninist) Madhav Kumar Nepal have urged the King to hold discussions and restore democracy before they agree to take part in the 2007 elections. The King now needs to come up with a fresh proposal if the deadlock is to be overcome in the political front. Nepal badly requires progress towards the resolution of both the political and insurgency problems even though both are contentious matters. Arguably, the latter is more complex, the rebels are also engaged in destructive acts. In any case, the ball is largely in the King's court since his latest offer has not met with acceptance by the politicians.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Foreign Editor of BSS