No more failures, please

An internationally reputed American journal, theForeign Policy (www.foreignpolicy.com)in its Aug-Sept 05 issue published a "Failed State Index." The index was tabulated by the Fund for Peace, an American social research organisation. The organisation ranked a group of 76 countries on their probability of failure as a state. The top 60 countries were grouped in three colour-coded categories: Critical (red), In Danger (orange), and Borderline (yellow). Among the 20 countries ranked 'Red', Bangladesh is 17th. The spate of writings in the local press on the index prompted me to carry out some research of my own. Here are my findings.

First, an inquiry into the credibility of the journal itself. The Foreign Policy is published by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, USA that also sponsors the Fund for Peace. The Endowment's website (www.carnegieendowment. org) states that it "is a private, nonpartisan, nonprofit organisation dedicated to advancing cooperation between nations and promoting active international engagement by the United States". The Foreign Policy comes out in several languages. Scanning though the journal's recent contributors, I found King Abdullah II, Collin Powell, Patrick P. Moynihan, Zbigniew Brzezinski, and many others from all over the world. The suggestion that the inclusion of Bangladesh as a potential failed state was because of the Journal's "complete lack of sensibility for everything non-Western" is implausible. The argument that the Failed State Index was an attempt by the American Military-Industrial complex to invent new enemies in the post-Cold War era is also too farfetched. Indeed, the threat that failed states pose is for all of us to see. When a state fails, it becomes an international responsibility that was echoed by the UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan when he said, "ignoring failed states creates problems that sometimes come back to bite us." French President Jacques Chirac has spoken of "the threat that failed states carry for the world's equilibrium."

The Fund for Peace used 12 social, economic and political indicators each carrying a value of 10. A country could thus score a maximum of 120. Any score of 90 or above was considered as 'Critical'. Bangladesh's score of 94.3 puts it in 'Critical' (Red) category. According to its survey, Bangladesh is the most vulnerable state within South Asia followed by Myanmar (93.4), Bhutan (92), Pakistan (89.4) and Nepal (89). Indicators that pulled Bangladesh down most are: Population Pressure (8.4), Uneven Development (9), Criminalisation of State (9.5), Deterioration of Public Services (8.2), Violation of Human Rights (8.5) and Factionalised Elites (8.7).

Demographic pressure on Bangladesh needs no reiteration. Although the population growth rate had reduced, the inertia would take the population to nearly 200 million in next twenty years. The birth rate is currently stagnant and the population growth rate might climb due to falling death rate. This is a worrying sign; huge populace with little or no education and no worthwhile skill has many ominous implications. Brushing aside the problem, someone wrote, "High density of population does not necessarily lead to civil unrest if the economy is strong enough to feed the population." True, but do we have the resources to feed the burgeoning population? If the whole humanity is concentrated in the US mainland, the density of population will not be half as it is in Bangladesh!

Despite steady economic gains during the last two decades, 35.6 per cent population remains below the poverty line. The rich-poor divide (Gini coefficient) is continuously widening in the country. While a tiny group, with the right political and family connection, has amassed enormous wealth, a vast segment of the population was reduced to penury. While the richest 20 per cent control 43 per cent of the wealth, the poorest 20 per cent controls only 8.7 per cent. (earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/Eco_cou_050.pdf) Landlessness and destitution of rural population contributes to the rise of a sort of insurgency. It is not purely a law and order problem to be tackled by the police; the root cause is economic deprivation that needs to be addressed. Unless we ensure that the economic gains trickle down to the lowest tier of the society, there will be serious social unrest in future.

Bangladesh scored poorly in "Criminalisation of State". Writing in local daily, someone said, "Unlike some important Western governments, it (Bangladesh) did not come to power through the back door but through free and fair elections and with direct mandate from the majority." "Free and fair elections" have remained an illusion in Bangladesh. Politics is in the grip of money and muscle, more than ever before. The criminalisation of the state apparatus has taken deep roots. Transparency International's survey terms Police and the Lower Judiciary as some of the most corrupt agencies of the government. Nexus between the law enforcers and the organised crime is public knowledge. Custodial deaths, now called cross-fire, are so common that these are no longer front-page news. No doubt, these contributed to our poor score of 8.5 in "Violation of Human Rights."

One writer claimed that the population is homogeneous with 90 per cent Muslim with a "strong secular undertone". However, let me argue that we buried secularism in the post-75 Bangladesh and since then religious extremism had been on the rise. Despite religious and cultural affinity, the nation is so divided on party line that there is no institution left that is not polarised and divided. Whether one is a doctor, lawyer, teacher, trader, banker or a public servant, the party affiliation is all important. Even children organisations are based on party line. The political elites are so divided that they are not even in talking terms. No wonder we scored poorly on "Factionalised Elites."

Another poor score was "Steadily Deteriorating Public Service." Whether it is the electricity, telephone, gas or water supply, an ordinary citizen has to face bureaucratic harassment everywhere. Even the Finance Minister had to publicly admit of pervading corruption. During his recent visit to Bangladesh, the President of the World Bank declared in no uncertain terms that unless corruption was checked and the governance improved, future WB loan would be hard to get by. The message was echoed by the US Charge-de-Affairs in the Amcham meet recently.

Nation-wide serial bombing on 17 August 05 once again showed how vulnerable we are to the forces of disruption and disorder. At least a thousand people must have been involved in planning and organising, reconnoitering, bomb-making and distributing and finally detonating them all across the country. The security services missed all these activities. The situation is almost surreal, but true. The bombs were not intended to kill, but if they were the casualties would have run in thousands, emergency services would have been overwhelmed and chaos would have reigned. Now that the Islamic extremist network is being unearthed all across the country, the proponents of "RAW-CIA-Mossad Conspiracy Theory" are looking like clowns at best.

In the Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index (CPI), we are still at the top sharing the honour with Haiti (www.transparency.org). In its latest report the Social Watch, an International NGO that tracks national progress on various social issues, ranked Bangladesh fifth worst among 125 countries in attaining the Millennium Development Goals. (The Daily Star, 18 Sept 05). The organisation's website (www.socwatch.org.uy/en/ fichasPais/20.html#) states, "The failure in governance in Bangladesh, one of the poorest countries in the world, is accompanied by a score of other specific threats to human security, including the pressures of globalisation, poverty, unemployment, an outdated legal system, a weak civil society, lack of political commitment, an insensitive approach to gender issues, etc." According to the "Freedom in the World Country Rating 2005" published by the Freedom House, USA (www. freedomhouse.org) Bangladesh ranked 145 out of 194 and the press freedom status was "Not Free." We might disagree with the methodologies and findings of these surveys, but for the rest of the world these reports create a perception that lingers. We need to work hard to change the perception. Poor governance, and as a consequence, deteriorating law and order situation worries us all. Time is indeed running out. Instead of endless blame game and conspiracy theories, we must reach a broad national consensus on how to improve governance. Bangladesh is definitely not a failed state, but it is on the brink of a precipice.

Air Cdre (Retd) Ishfaq Ilahi Choudhury, ndc, psc is Registrar, the University of Asia Pacific, Dhaka.