Stalled peace process between India and Pakistan

Notwithstanding far too many disappointments to permit anything other than a cynical view of the peace process now underway between the subcontinent's two arch rivals, the joint statement issued in New Delhi last month on the conclusion of President Musharraf's cricket diplomacy promoted a measure of optimism not only about the success of composite dialogue but also for the prospects for an early resolution of such disputes as Siachen glacier or Sir Creek issue leading ultimately to the resolution even of a tricky Kashmir dispute in the light of freshly defined parameters. At least the spirits prevailing on either side reflected that. Echoing the buoyant mood of the peaceniks when President Musharraf called the current peace process 'irreversible' it carried with it a degree of conviction that had never been there in any earlier exchange of this nature.

It was obviously expected that while the core issue of Indo-Pak i.e. Kashmir dispute is so frankly discussed among the leaders of both the countries, other relatively minor issues would easily be resolved paving the way towards a meaningful dialogue on Kashmir. Sadly, however, the recent inconclusive negotiation on Siachen and Sir Creek suggest that the optimism generated in the wake of intensive Musharraf-Manmohon parleys was indeed premature. It is rudely realised that the exercise were just deja-vu and hardly anything new in direction. The inconclusive talks were just rituals and do not promise even of their resumption any time soon.

Even if both Musharraf and Manmohon committed in their joint-statement to expedite Siachen demilitarisation process both India and Pakistan once again failed to make any headway at the Defence Secretary level talk on Siachen although the issue is almost decided one for last 14 years. Apart from current understanding between President Musharraf and Prime Minister Singh the then Prime Ministers of India and Pakistan, Rajiv Gandhi and Benazir Bhutto, arrived at an informal agreement in 1989 "to eliminate the wasteful expenditure incurred by both sides on maintaining troops in a region where more soldiers died of exposure to the cold than killed in military action." Yet, the parties concerned continued to stick to their entrenched position showing no sign of flexibility. The same fate awaited the Tuesday talks on Sir Creek as both sides failed to iron out their differences. It was the eighth round talks on Sir Creek and the second one under the current round of the composite dialogue. During those meetings a thorough study of the issue including a joint survey of the Creek had already been done.

The statement issued after first day's talk on Sir Creek told that each other's point of view had now been understood. It was ridiculous indeed! Because that would mean that the negotiating teams of India and Pakistan comprising very experienced officials took eight lengthy sessions stretching over two years just to understand each other's point of view on a relatively less complicated issue! It is also dampening to hope to resolve far more complicated and sensitive issues than Siachen or Sir Creek.

Ignoring the fact that there has been no satisfactory progress on any bilateral issue discussed under the composite-dialogue, Prime Minister Singh, however, insisted on 29 May last "We are moving in right direction and hope to solve the problems amicably." The Indian Prime Minister went in to emphasize that his country was committed to making "full and sincere efforts to resolve all bilateral problems with Pakistan through talks in spite of certain difficulties in the path." Notwithstanding such lofty pronouncement emanating from Delhi an element of distrust somewhere in some quarter continues to stall the talks. In this manner the dialogue may be dragging on in its own momentum but without a purpose.

Already there are signs of fatigue in the ritualistic motion of the peace process and the warmth generated by Musharraf's Delhi visit to witness one day cricket match seems to be on the wane. A cease-fire along the line of control that was in place for last one-and-half years and faithfully observed seems to be coming to an end. The muted allegations of gross LoC infiltration are again becoming audible. The pro-peace solidarity in both the countries is also eroding and the road blocs to peace are piling up.

Under the circumstances, if the real process on any of the substantial issues continues to elude the interlocutors the policy makers in both India and Pakistan ought to have a hard look at the structure of the composite dialogue, and should take a stock of what all has it achieved so far and rethink the modus operandi all over again. The insightful analysts are convinced that the way the composite dialogue is structured confers an inherent rigidity on the bilateral talks which makes any significant progress or even a forward movement on any substantial issue extremely difficult.

Mr Advani recently on a visit to Pakistan agreed with President Musharraf that the peace process had now been taken over by the people of two countries. Indeed, there is an increasing realisation on both sides of the border that a protracted confrontation has taken too heavy a toll on two generations of their people and that it is now time to bury the hatchet and concentrate on development efforts aimed at bringing about people's wellbeing. The peace process however goes on a razor's edge and even an unintentioned mistake can derail its course. In the past such processes were scuttled even when they were rearing fruition and things were absolutely positive.

It will therefore be a grave mistake to underestimate the threats to the peace process from powerful elements in both the countries who are bitterly opposed to any resolution of disputes between India and Pakistan. Their design can only be defeated if the composite dialogue now underway shows concrete result and succeeds in resolving, or at least in making progress on the less complicated issues like Siachen or Sir Creek as quickly as possible. That will not be possible unless both the countries start trusting each other and making sure that they do not abuse each other's trust.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.