<i>5 Reasons To Be Sceptical Of Alleged Plot</i>

Adel Jubeir

US officials say they are certain the bizarre plot against Ambassador Adel Jubeir was real. But some analysts find it unlikely that the Iranian government, or legitimate factions within, would be involved in such a tangled plot.
1. The alleged plot doesn't fit Iran's style
In the 32-year history of the Islamic Republic of Iran, its Quds Force -- the branch implicated in the alleged plot -- has never been publicly linked to an assassination plot or an attack on US soil. In cases where Quds Force members have been accused of plotting attacks, they had gone to great lengths to cover their tracks and hire proxy groups of the highest caliber, like the Lebanese Hezbollah.
Hiring an Iranian-American used-car salesman who, according to investigators, openly talked about his connections to the Iranian military and brazenly made a $100,000 wire transfer doesn't fit the Quds Force's modus operandi, analysts say.
2. Iran would lose more than it would gain
An assassination plot on US soil would be costly for Iran, analysts say, inviting further sanctions and isolation by the international community, and perhaps military action as well.
3. Iran has much easier targets to go after
Iran has potential US and Saudi targets in its own backyard. In fact, Iran's Quds Force is frequently accused of waging proxy wars against US troops in neighbouring Iraq and Afghanistan and against Saudi interests in places like Bahrain.
4. Iran is gaining in stature and isn't desperate for drastic measures
Analysts say Iran has emerged as an undeniable power broker in the Middle East due in large part to the US-led elimination of two of its key enemies in the last decade -- Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq and the Afghan Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
Analysts say a seemingly drastic measure like an assassination plot on US soil might perhaps make sense for a country desperate for attention, but not for Iran.
5. The alleged plot is full of holes
There seem to be too many unanswered questions at this point to conclude that this plot was conceived by the Iranian government or the leaders of the Quds Force.
Consider the following statements by US officials: When asked if the "upper reaches" of the Iranian government knew about the alleged plot, Attorney General Eric Holder said, "We are not making that charge at this point."