In the eye of a storm

THINGS could not have gone better for the government, probably it could not have even visualised these euphoric moments only six or seven months earlier. With an opposition in total disarray, and international criticism of the elections totally muted, there is genuine reason why the party in power should feel confident and look toward an unchallenged five year term or even more. There are more reasons to celebrate. The economy that faltered in the last six months of previous year has bounced back, businesses are picking up the lost time, and the country has announced its boldest budget ever of humongous development expenditure and vaulting income.
In a normal country with a stable government and reasonably stable economy nothing could be better than what Bangladesh is experiencing now, at least on the surface. Unfortunately, we are not a normal country.  
Politically, we claim ourselves to be a democratic country. In practice, we just do the opposite. In true democracies people rule; in our democracy the leaders rule.  In true democracy people choose their representatives; but in our democracy leaders choose our representatives. That is why more than half of our current parliament is populated by people that their constituents did not choose. In real democracies parties elect their leaders; but in our democracy the leaders nominate their associates and themselves. Our politics is not only deeply divided, but also heavily manipulated and tarnished by corruption and criminality. In other democracies rule of law prevails, in our democracy rule of gangsterism prevails.
Our economy has grown impressively in the last two decades and probably has potential to grow further. But despite this growth we are still a low income country surviving on the fringe. Our stability is buttressed by three elements; agriculture, apparel exports and wages of migrant workers, all controlled by external factors. A year of drought or flood can ruin or severely impact our agro- based income, and so can also a fall in demand for apparels or for migrant workers impact adversely our foreign income. Our economy has not diversified, nor has our industry matured to manufacture more durable goods or electronic products that have a more enduring effect to stabilise the economy.
And yet we celebrate. We celebrate our short-term political gains with a myopic view of the future, not realising that gaining two-thirds majority of the parliament does not augur well either for the country or for democracy. Sadly, this perverse sense of victory has emboldened the rank and file of the party to exercise their strength to stifle anything and everything that comes their way to achieve their objectives. Hence, the growth of complete lawlessness surrounding the local elections where voters would be prevented from casting their votes by hired goons. Hence, the series of killings, abduction, and robbery by criminals under the patronage of their political overlords.  
The abnormal normality of our politics today emanates from two factors; absence of statesmanship in our political parties, and people's abhorrence for negative and destructive politics that featured in the pre-election period last year. In the so-called struggle for democracy what the political parties of our country have shown from time to time is nothing but a squabble for power. The party in power would never like to relinquish, the party out of power would like to snatch it. Common people became collaterals in this power struggle. Now they have become apathetic to the political struggle once they realised this.
This apathy does not portend well for the future of the country and our democracy, if we were to have one that is. Lack of any visible protests in the street against government or its policies does not necessarily mean that God's in His Heaven and All's Right with the World. A made to order parliament with a perfectly loyal opposition is not everybody's idea of a democracy. Neither is capture of polling booths to install party loyalists in public offices or for that matter shielding the loyalists from criminal prosecution.
The eye of the storm is the quietest. It is also said that the last to know of an impending disaster is the first in hierarchy. The storm may not be brewing yet, but it has all the preconditions that cannot be ignored. First is the smugness or self- contentment of containing all opposition and sense of political invincibility that surrounds our leadership. Second is the rampant corruption and utter absence of rule of law that prevail in the country. Third is the growth of mafia politics fed by the politicians' greed for money and local power. Fourth is the ever expanding band of unemployed youth, some with education and others none. Of all the factors, the last is the most insidious as it has greatest potential of bringing about the storm.
The Arab uprising of 2011 took years to gestate, but when it happened it spread quickly and toppled several dictatorships in less than a year. None of the leaders where this happened had anticipated this quick reversal of their placid leadership in such a short time.
We may be going through a similar period of self-contentment and relative lull in serious political challenges to the status quo.  But this conceit will buckle under conditions of lawlessness, unbridled corruption, and inner fighting among mafia politicians. As contentment in the inner circle grows internecine quarrels for power in local areas will also grow, leaving a totally frustrated population clamouring for a change. This may not happen immediately, may be not in a year or two.  But eventually it will come.  One can only hope that this change will come from self-realisation of the leadership.
 

The writer is a US based political commentator and analyst.