"Ki hobey?" What's going to happen, is the question. While YouTubers, TikTokers, and Facebookers are all filing their predictions, let the truth be known: no one has any idea what's going to happen to Bangladeshi politics. It's like being asked about the weather. Forecasts may help with disaster preparedness, but they don't guarantee a sunny year. No one knows when it's going to rain. So, when asked if I have the faintest inkling of what's going to happen, I often respond in zest: "Get out there and stop the rain, if you can." Unfortunately, the rains washing our lands are stemming from a precipitation pregnant with intolerance, inflexibility, and inconsideration.

At our end, according to official sources, between October 31 and November 1, nine buses, two covered vans, two trucks, one pickup van, two showrooms, and one police box were torched. On November 1, there was four-way fighting going on in the capital's Mirpur area as a result of minimum wage hike protests. Between October 28 to November 4, at least 7,835 leaders and activists of BNP were arrested. During November 5-6, different places reported processions, blockage of roads, and arson incidents. There have also been reports of violence in Gazipur, Narayanganj, Manikganj, and Khulna. On October 28 alone, 1,500 opposition workers were injured along with around 40 policemen and 30 journalists, while at least two people died.

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Are we doomed to repeat past mistakes?

Watching Parvez, the policeman from Chorakatari village die while crying for his life wasn't easy; student leader Abdur Rashid Sarder of Natore being reportedly pushed from the roof and killed wasn't acceptable; watching hundreds of people engaging out in the streets and betting their lives on the sanity of the political leaders wasn't palatable either.

Yet, for many of us, these are just stats, almost proving that civil society is distanced from reality, with its members boxed within talk shows, newspaper columns, and a few petitions. Therefore, most of us are talking, bickering, and hollering on television, at the lunch table, in the living rooms, at meetings of forums, and in all kinds of groups of people all over the country—about democracy.

Almost a hundred years ago, the number of democracies increased and the spread of democratic governance began to seem inevitable. However, this reverie was short-lived as infant democracies only lived to wobble and fall. Hungary, Albania, Poland, Lithuania, and Yugoslavia were a few of them. Very soon, other bigger states began to turn to authoritarianism. Fascism toppled these governments, followed by the stock market crash in 1929, ushering in a new wave of the misery that ensued for a while. In 1932, Mussolini predicted, "The liberal state is destined to perish," and by 1933, Hitler was in power. More epitaphs of democracy had popped up in Greece, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Portugal, Uruguay, and Spain. Japan invaded Shanghai, Mussolini invaded Ethiopia. In most nations in the West, democracy faltered, weakened by monopoly, apathy, and corruption.

For the sake of tomorrow, we need to ensure that our Journal of Democracy does not contain any inaccurate entries so that even Rip Van Winkle, after a hundred years of slumber, has no problems catching up with what Bangladesh is now going through.

By 2005, the world looked more like how it had in the 1930s. Putin, Erdogan, Duterte, Bolsonaro, and Trump marked yet another phase. The US democracy, which in 2006 was the 17th most democratic nation, became a "flawed" one in 2016. Following the pattern of authoritarianism backed by misinformation, terrorism, human rights abuses, political intolerance, toxic social media practices, and assaults on the press, many nations cut back on their levels of tolerance, leaving little to no space for criticism, protest, or dissent.

With intolerant governance structures in place—where one breathed and led wars—the only way to success was gradually considered to be through the annihilation of the other. So, if ever the "other" was attempted to be resurrected, the zombie of freedom also trembled in fear of not knowing any better than continuing the cycle of violence.

In our own land, there are talk shows mimicking battlegrounds, where guests get their time to speak and are often subjected to rounds of largely uninformed, bellicose discourse. At times, shows soared in popularity just because the guests managed to create enough controversy by coming very close to fistfights, or had exited studio sets. There have been columns reeking of dubious content that have gone unchallenged. There have been decent reports which have been refuted while indecent ones have headlined all over. Yet, even now, no one's actually practising democracy. Who's chronicling the strategic interventions of the politicians of ruthlessly sacrificing the regular man as a mere pawn on the board?

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Free pages, free lenses

Someone is holding a gun; someone is hurling a bomb; someone is wielding a machete; someone is waving a flag; and there's others burning cars, buses, homes, and bodies. Someone is hiding under cover, some are being picked up, some are being held back; and some are being sent into oblivion. Today, we need to record how many times intolerance has marked our democratic plains; how many times threats have been showered against any opposition; how many times fear has taken over our lives; how many times the economy has taken a nosedive; how many times regular people have returned from the kitchen markets empty-handed; how many times unmarked vehicles have picked up rebels from our neighbourhoods; how many times families have had to borrow wings from the phoenix in their backyard to build their new homes from ashes.

At a time like this, all our diaries need to be accurate, objective, and real.

For the sake of tomorrow, we need to ensure that our Journal of Democracy does not contain any inaccurate entries so that even Rip Van Winkle, after a hundred years of slumber, has no problems catching up with what Bangladesh is now going through.

While I was finishing this column, a friend of mine candidly commented, "Once upon a time, politicians were public servants; somewhere in the middle they turned politics into a profession; and now, politics is the best business they could have ever had."

There's a hard truth in this. Whether we like it or don't, our politicians have dropped the ball on all fronts, causing us all infinite grief and irreconcilable loss.

Dr Rubana Huq is vice-chancellor of Asian University for Women.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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As the 12th National Parliamentary Election is only a few days ahead, aspirants are going above and beyond with their promotional activities to showcase what they can bring to the table. While every alleyway, street and locality has been adorned with posters, the most impressive promotion of this election is perhaps the innovative and catchy songs that are being played at political stalls, through mikes, moving vans and rickshaws.

One of the most popular songs in this category is "Joy Bangla, Jitbe Abar Nouka", voiced by GM Ashraf and others. The timely and catchy lyrics, tonality and energy that the song ensues made it an instant hit in the 2018 parliamentary election, and it resurfaces with all its old glory with its new version released in November.

The producer of the song, Towhid Hossain, said in an interview they did not think that this song would become this successful, they wanted to make a song that would resonate with the youth of the country. "I and my team tried to create something that not only be promotional but will engage and mobilise people, mostly the younger generation, that's all."

"The song became so popular that even Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina met us and praised it. It's an achievement in itself. We added the new success stories, such as the inauguration of Metro Rail, Padma Multipurpose Bridge and Sheikh Hasina's leadership in handling the Covid-19 pandemic, to the song to make it even more relevant," said Towhid.

While the aforementioned song got over on its quality itself, many others have used the Internet to become viral, as did the eccentric rap song by Nadif Sani, "Manik Bhai er Salam Nin, Guys Be Careful", to promote politician Hasibur Rahman Manik. Nadif, an Old Dhaka resident, became the talk of the town when various videos became subject to memes on the Internet. The singer has gone on to make various renditions of this song.

The same happened to "Daisy Apar Salam Nin", meant to promote Awami League-backed Aleya Sarwar Daisy, which became an instant hit after its initial release. The rap song, made by an artiste named Qpid, is comprised of the lyrics "Daisy Apa'r Dui Noyon, 31 er Unnoyon", which instantly resonated with the people. Meme-makers on Facebook had a field day with the video.

On a more serious note, this election's top picks will be one of Bangladesh Awami League's theme songs, "Ekti Doler Jonno", composed and arranged by Pavel Areen and sung by Pantha Kanai, Chandana Mojumdar, Dilshad Nahar Kona, and Masha Islam, amongst others. Another is "Amra Joy Banglar Louk", composed by Emon Chowdhury.

Other popular songs include "Noukar Pale Legeche Hawa", "Teknaf Theke Tetulia", "Bar Bar Dorkar Sheikh Hasinar Sorkar", "Sheikh Hasinar Sarker Barbar Dorkar", "Khela Hobe", which are making waves across the country with AL followers flaunting their dance moves and support in poster-filled caravans.

Prominent singer Momotaz is probably having the most effective campaign as she is utilising her musical talents with prose to mobilise the people in her Manikganj-02 constituency. She has been seen readily making new songs and singing them at her electoral campaigns across the region. She also sang in Pritom Hasan's composition "Amra Nouka Chalai Re" and other favourites, such as "Sob Netar Chaite Amar Sheikh Hasinai Bhala", which are also being used in her and several others' campaigns. Emon Chowdhury makes yet another return to this list with "Amra Achhi Mathe".

Followers of popular politician, Sheikh Tonmoy of Bagerhat-02 constituency are using "Tonmoy Bhaike Vote Dile Hobe Unnoyon",  Mahiya Mahi's Rajshahi-1 constituency "MP Nayika Mahire Truck Markai Ekta Vote Diye Ja" adapted from the famous Fifa World Cup'18 theme song "Ale Ale", Ferdous Ahmed's Dhaka-10 constituency "Sheikh Hasinar Nayok Ferdous Jitbe Re", former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan's "Kamal Bhai Er Hobe Joy" and politician Momin Munzil's followers are using "Momin Munzil Bhai Abar Nouka Paiyachhe", inspired from a puthi song, to further their campaigns.

Songs like "Bolo Heiya", "Truck Markai Vote Chai", and "Jonotar Prarthi Kamarul Bhai", amongst others, are being played loudly through rickshaws, vans and in campaign stalls around Dhaka-06 constituency.

Although Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is not participating in the upcoming elections, followers of the party have not backed down from showing their love to the party by playing,  "Khaleda Zia Jindabad", Baby Naznin's "Gonotontrer Maa Khaleda Zia" and Asif Akbar's "Jonmo Tomar Juddhe Jawar" and "Jailer Bhetor Maa Ke Ar Thakte Debo Na", in a relatively more subdued manner.

A notable trend within these songs is the fact that they are often based on other popular songs, and these templates are reused constantly. Politicians often depend on local sound mixing studios to make their own songs from a varied number of previously recorded templates. The Daily Star spoke to one of these studios, Kallyanpur's Komol Media. "We provide these services at every election, from national to regional. Our songs get used across the country over the years," said the owner, Masum Rana.

"Most of our customers want modified versions of the old with their names and electoral symbols, as those are the most familiar and relevant to the voters, and also less costly. We also make new songs, but we take one or two days for that, and in that case, we charge extra," said Masum.

He informed that as they have their singers and sound designers ready during the election time, they only need 20 minutes and around Tk 2,000 to Tk 5,000 per song, based on the requirements of their clients. "Once the song is ready, we provide the song via a pen drive or links so that they can play them in any medium they want. We also upload it to our YouTube channel to attract clients," he added.

Masum Rana also adds this practice has been going on for years, and he has never faced any hurdles or problems from the concerned authority ever regarding copyrights.

Speaking to followers in several stalls across the Farmgate and Panthapath area of the capital, The Daily Star found that the followers mostly played these songs from YouTube, and downloaded files provided by the senior members of the concerned political leader. In the case of soundbox-laden rickshaws, or vans, they operate as per day allowances in their respective locality.

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A fight for survival: Jatra artistes in dire financial crisis due to elections

The Copyright Act 2000 and Copyright Rules 2006 in Bangladesh provide legal protection for musical work. A musician's copyright is seen as being just as valuable as an author's right in legalese. Nonetheless, in terms of these political songs, no consequence has been noted whenever they lift the tune or music from a preexisting popular song.

As the 2024 parliamentary elections are just around the corner, expect to be hearing more creative, catchy and sometimes obnoxious songs around your locality. However, there are some real musical gems hidden everywhere, even in songs used as political tools. 
 

The ruling Awami League has proven to be resilient during all kinds of crises – political and economic. The party's strength is its army of selfless activists (all the way down to the grassroots) who dedicate themselves to uphold its image and glory. The AL has been known for its mastery in conducting strong campaigns on the streets right from the days of its foundation in the pre-Bangladesh era, amid much adversity and under a hostile regime. The party faced a serious leadership crisis when Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, along with his family members, was assassinated. But the AL rose again like a phoenix. After being out of the office for 21 years at a stretch, the party came to power with the people's mandate.

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The game of politics is like a Test match, not T20

Even when the party assumed office in 2009 with a landslide victory, it faced challenges in bringing its internal politics in order. But it weathered through the strife. Barely two months in office, the party also had to contend with the Pilkhana tragedy. Soon after, there was the month-long Shahbag protests to deal with. There was also Hefazat-e-Islam's march towards Dhaka in 2013, which had brought the entire city to a standstill. But Awami League handled all that with a strong hand, so well that Hefazat now is a "friend". In fact, the Hefazat-e-Islam referred to Awami League president Sheikh Hasina as "Qawmi janani" ("mother of the Qawmi").

But the first serious jolt for the AL government arguably came when the United States imposed sanctions on the Rab and some of its current and former top officials for human rights violations. This has possibly been the most pressure the government has faced in its three consecutive terms in office.

Then, following the annulment of the caretaker government system from the Constitution, opposition parties took to the streets and challenged the government. There were vigorous demonstrations and people were killed. Dhaka city had become virtually isolated from the rest of the country. The situation was as if the government might be toppled at any time before the January 2014 election. But again, the ruling party overcame the situation and formed a government, thanks to the BNP's boycott of the election.

The opposition was simply clueless as to where to go or what to do. So, the political situation was quite favourable for the Awami League, as there was almost no one to challenge. But the heinous terrorist attacks, beginning with the one at Holey Artisan Bakery, came next. Many foreign nationals were killed and the world was left shocked. The government announced its war on terror and quite successfully stemmed militancy. So, from political opponents to militancy – the ruling Awami League showed its resilience in the face of crisis time and again.

Compared to 2014, the situation in 2018 was far easier for the ruling party as BNP had joined the polls with almost no preparation and the party chairperson Khaleda Zia was behind bars following a court verdict. That election was not above controversies though, since there were numerous allegations of ballot-stuffing and "voting by night". But that did not keep Awami League from taking office again.

During its years of governance, the country fared well. Harvests were reasonably good, and food prices never got completely out of hand. The grim power and energy situation of BNP's last days saw an improvement quickly after Awami League took over. The ruling party fared reasonably well in international circles as well, solidifying its relationship with India and laying the foundation for a stronger Chinese involvement in Bangladesh. The government also managed to get a grip on the Rohingya crisis, which had all the potential to get out of hand.

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The Zahangir model of navigating elections

But the first serious jolt for the AL government arguably came when the United States imposed sanctions on the Rab and some of its current and former top officials for human rights violations. This has possibly been the most pressure the government has faced in its three consecutive terms in office. Those sanctions worked, though. Extrajudicial killings plummeted to nearly zero, which encouraged the opposition party members to take to the streets. Then, the BNP held rallies in divisional headquarters with a massive participation. But the party lost the momentum when they tried to hold a rally in Dhaka. Here again the ruling party played a tactical card with its choice of venue for the opposition rally. The ruling party kept the BNP busy over the venue issue and created obstacles at different entry points of Dhaka – as it had done during other divisional rallies – so that BNP loyalists couldn't join the Dhaka rally.

Although there was no big natural calamity, the Covid pandemic brought about a situation that the world could not have anticipated. Economic crisis was severe in many countries, the weak healthcare system was exposed globally, and the vaccine crisis paralysed many economies. But again, the Bangladesh government successfully tackled the pandemic period by managing the economy and administering vaccines.

But when the world was still recovering from the Covid crisis, we witnessed another polarisation in the form of the Russia-Ukraine war. This led to a record inflation, a dollar crisis, and weakened the economic status of many countries. Bangladesh has been no exception.

Even after this, the ruling party was still quite confident about the next election. But things started changing when the electricity crisis became a major concern, harkening back to the days when the Awami League government had first taken office in 2009. This also happened at a time when the prices of essentials began skyrocketing. To make matters worse, Bangladesh is seeing one of its hottest years with prolonged heatwaves plaguing the population and worsening the power crisis.

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By-Poll Drama, Hero Alom, and a Smart Bangladesh

Amid rising inflation, rampant loadshedding, and a very discontented electorate, the US government announced visa restrictions. Under the new policy, the US will be able to restrict the issuance of visas for any Bangladeshi individual believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining elections through any means. This includes individuals employing measures to prevent political parties, voters, civil society, or the media from disseminating their views in Bangladesh. Current and former Bangladeshi officials, members of pro-government and opposition political parties, members of law enforcement, the judiciary, and security services all fall under the purview of this visa policy. And this has added to what must have already been a throbbing headache for the Awami League.

With Bangladesh's forex reserves dwindling fast, the high fuel prices, no visible respite from a power crisis (worsened by an uncharacteristic stretch of heatwaves), and political opponents freely flexing their muscles, could it be that the Awami League has run out of its amazingly long streak of good luck? The next few months are perhaps going to be the toughest test for Awami League's resilience in recent history.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is chief reporter at The Daily Star.

October 28 has finally arrived. Like the general public, we too feel apprehensive about what the day might entail, given the increasingly incendiary remarks coming from both parties in the lead-up to the day, and their uncompromising stance regarding an election-time government. The BNP has said they will resist if attacked, while the AL has vowed to be on the streets to make sure the BNP activists cannot engage in violence. Given the not-so-subtle hints of retaliation, and the close proximity in which BNP and AL rallies will take place in Dhaka, we cannot help being worried about a violent showdown.

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Dialogue is not optional, it’s a must at this stage

Was this state of affairs unavoidable? The Awami League could have easily allowed the BNP to hold a peaceful rally, instead of calling a counter-rally on the same day—as the party has done whenever the opposition has organised a major demonstration in the country, making such confrontations not only a possibility but an inevitability on many occasions. We should not have to remind the ruling party that the rights to peaceful assembly and association are enshrined in our constitution. AL leaders from different city units said they were asked to be fully ready to dominate the field, and that they would not be "empty-handed." They have also promised to not allow BNP activists to spread throughout the city. In what capacity, we wonder, is AL making these statements? If law and order is to be maintained, surely the responsibility falls on our law enforcement agencies, not AL members. Besides, both BNP and AL are political parties with equal rights under the constitution. Why would one have unlimited and apparently armed access to the city, while members of another be­ stopped and harassed at every checkpoint in and leading to the city, and their mobile phones searched?

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What should and shouldn’t happen in Oct 28 rallies

The BNP has, thus far, despite provocations from the AL, managed to keep their head out of violent waters. This time around, however, they seem poised to retaliate. We urge them to exercise restraint; the answer to their frustration does not lie in violence, but in a strong and sustained peaceful movement that has the people's support. It would do well to remember that its violent tactics in the lead up to the 2014 polls did not succeed and, in fact, alienated large sections of the public.

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What will happen on October 28?

In this tense climate, it is the state and state apparatuses who have the most to prove today. First and foremost, they must separate themselves from the ruling party and stop acting as an extension of them. We urge them to stop harassing opposition activists and ordinary people, and unlawfully checking their phones ahead of the rally. They must play their due role in ensuring peace and security, without resorting to unlawful arrests or unprovoked violence, and demonstrate neutrality in the face of violence by either BNP or AL members.

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Rising AL-BNP confrontation is most disturbing

We call upon the two parties to see reason and avoid violence at all costs. They must not hold Dhaka and its residents hostage to their whims and power play. They should not forget that a large section of Dhaka's population are day labourers or small businessmen who depend on their daily earnings. If the battle for power is being fought for the sake of "the people," then the least the parties can do is take the inconvenience, insecurity and vulnerability of the public into consideration. Dhaka should not be turned into a battlefield.

The talk of the town now revolves around who will get the nomination of the ruling Awami League to become the 22nd president of Bangladesh.

Party leaders said while many names have been discussed in the media and also social media, AL President Sheikh Hasina has not discussed the issue in the party forum till date.

A number of ruling party lawmakers said the issue of nomination of a president is not discussed in detail in the party forum or parliamentary party meeting, but party chief herself or a lawmaker on her behalf proposes a name and other members second the proposed name.

Three names have been most discussed for the post -- Mashiur Rahman, an advisory council member of the party, Speaker Shirin Sharmin Chaudhury and Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader.

Hailing from Khulna, Mashiur was a former bureaucrat and was assistant private secretary to Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman from 1972 to 1975.

Shirin, an MP from Rangpur-6, became the youngest Speaker of the House and has been serving since April 2013. She started her career as a lawyer of the Supreme Court and also served as the state minister of the women and children's affairs ministry.

Obaidul Quader, who was elected AL general secretary for the third consecutive time, is the road, transport and bridges minister and also a lawmaker from Noakhali-5.

However, Quader himself recently said he was not qualified to hold the office of the president.

The ruling party's nominee will be the next president of the country as no other political party which has representation in the parliament is going to propose any name for the presidential election, and the ruling party has a brute majority in the parliament.

Out of 350 parliamentary seats, the AL currently has 302, while main opposition Jatiya Party has 26. The Workers Party has four seats; Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal, Bikalpa Dhara Bangladesh and Gono Forum have two each; Bangladesh Tarikat Federation and Jatiya Party (Manju) have a single seat each; and three remaining seats are occupied by independents.

Though the post of the president is mostly ceremonial -- they are to act as per the advice of the prime minister, except when appointing the premier and the chief justice -- it takes on some significance during polls-time given his say in issuing directives to help the Election Commission function effectively.

According to section 5 (2) of the Representation of the People's Order, 1972, all executive authorities of the government shall assist the EC in the performance of its functions, and for this purpose, the president may, after consultation with the commission, issue such directions as they may deem necessary.

The tenure of Hamid, the longest serving president of the country, will expire on April 23, and according to the constitution, there is no scope for his re-election.

Article 50 (2) of the constitution reads that no person shall hold office as president for more than two terms, whether or not the terms are consecutive.

Hamid was appointed acting president of Bangladesh on March 14, 2013, while then president Zillur Rahman was in hospital in Singapore. Zillur died six days later.

Hamid was then elected unopposed as president on April 22, 2013, and was sworn into office two days later. On February 7, 2018, he was re-elected unopposed for a second term.