Indian govt dismisses ‘incorrect’ media report cautioning Covid-19’s 2nd wave

A forum of scientists of the Indian government today termed "incorrect" a media report that suggested that they had cautioned in early March about the more contagious second wave of Covid-19 but no attention was paid to it.

The three scientists also acknowledged that they could not earlier predict the exact trajectory of the second wave because of the rapidly-changing nature of the virus, reports our New Delhi correspondent.

The scientists are Manindra Agrawal, professor of Indian Institute of  Technology, Kanpur; Madhuri Kanitkar, deputy chief of Integrated Defense Staff and M Vidyasagar, professor of Indian Institute of Technology in Hyderabad.

"We, the scientists working on the Sutra model for charting the trajectory of Covid-19, would like to point out some facts related to predictions of our mathematical model, especially since some of these have been misunderstood and misquoted," they were quoted as saying by a statement issued by the Science and Technology Ministry today, according to our New Delhi correspondent. 

"Recent reports in some media seem to suggest that scientists working on the Sutra model cautioned in March about the second wave but attention was not paid to it. This is incorrect," the statement said.

The scientists in the statement also said "To seek our inputs by one of the very senior officers of the government coordinating the national pandemic response. We indicated that the Sutra model predicted the second wave to peak by the third week of April and to stay most likely around one lakh daily cases.  The model predictions in this instance were incorrect…."

It is important to note that a mathematical model can only predict the future with some certainty so long as virus dynamics and its transmissibility don't change substantially over time, the statement also read.

"In the case of Covid-19, it is clear that the nature of the virus has been changing very rapidly. In such a context, any prediction for Covid-19 must be continually readjusted, sometimes almost daily," added the statement.