Gulf economies to grow faster in 2022, oil price fall biggest threat
The economies in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council will grow at their fastest paces in several years, according to a Reuters poll of economists who cautioned the risk to that outlook was skewed to the downside.
Crude oil prices, a major driver for Gulf economies, climbed to their highest since 2014 on Wednesday, driven by escalating global political tensions involving major producers including United Arab Emirates and Russia, which could worsen already tight supplies.
That is bullish news for the six wealthy oil-exporting countries in the region.
The January 11-19 poll of 25 economists forecast all six economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council would grow faster this year than was expected three months ago.
Saudi Arabia was predicted to top the list with growth of 5.7 per cent, followed by Kuwait and UAE with 5.3 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively.
Economic growth in Qatar, Oman and Bahrain was expected to average between 3 per cent - 4 per cent for 2022. If realised, that would be the best these countries have witnessed in several years.
"Despite relatively tight fiscal policy, and some external headwinds, we expect the GCC economies to see faster growth in 2022 as they continue to build on the progress made last year," said Khatija Haque, head of research and chief economist at Emirates NBD.
"While the outlook for 2022 remains broadly constructive, there is still a high degree of uncertainty especially with regards to the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic."
As the global economy deals with the prospect of persistent inflation, the region's price outlook was modest, but varied.
Inflation was expected to stay between 2.0 per cent and 2.8 per cent this year, with the lowest reading for the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Oman at 2.0 per cent and the highest for Qatar at 2.8 per cent.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter and the region's economic and political heavyweight, will see 5.7 per cent economic growth this year. If realised, it would be the fastest growth since 2012 when oil averaged around $111 per barrel.
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