Falling birth rate

AN outstanding improvement has taken place in containing birth rate in urban slums. It has dropped from 2.5 in 2006 to 2.0 in 2013. For non-slum and semi-urban women the rate is 1.7 per mother. If this trend persists, we are looking at equalisation of birth and death rates after the population reaches 18 to 18.5 crore mark. Therefore, the existing projection of our population stabilising after it peaks in the next 20 years at 22 crore can be revised now. We are pretty close to the replacement level, meaning a woman having two children.

All this is remarkable when you take into account successive governments' sluggish family planning activities over quite a few decades. In particular, declining births in slums despite, poverty, illiteracy and  poor sanitation stand out as an example leading the way, as it were, for a slow-moving  family planning drive. Contraceptive use in slums is at 70 percent compared to 65 percent in non-slum areas.

Teenage pregnancy in the slums has remained static at 21 percent since 2006. Intervention is needed in this area having regard to the fact that this has a direct bearing on maternal health as well as child health. To have had 50 percent of the slum children stunted is worrisome indeed.

Overall, we note that the total fertility rate in 2011 was estimated at 2.3 while it stood at 6.3 in 1975. It has taken a good 35 years to contain baby boom at 2.3. Now the imperative is to consolidate the gains and reach the desired replacement level sooner than projected.