The pressing questions after the January 7 election are how the result and the electoral process will be considered by the international community and what impact it will have, if any, on the relationship with Bangladesh's external partners, especially the West. These questions have become important because of the series of events leading up to polling day and the low voter turnout.

The series of events since October 28 sent out the message that the ruling party had planned the election to ensure a victory. The absence of democratic behaviour is no longer hidden under the carpet. The persecution of leaders and activists of the opposition parties, especially the BNP, drew international attention and criticism. It was matched with other kinds of intrigue and machinations, such as fielding "dummy" candidates and using state apparatuses to ensure victory of the preferred candidates.

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A review of the 2024 electoral drama

It was highlighted before the polling day that the goal of the incumbent Awami League was to draw a large number of voters to the polling stations. The party hoped that its supporters and supporters of the "independent" candidates would make up more than 50 percent of the voters. But January 7 showed how voters shied away from the polling booths. Then came events casting serious doubts about the turnout data. The Election Commission (EC) said around midday that the turnout was 18.5 percent, and around 3pm it was around 26 percent. But an hour later, as the polls closed, the official estimate was claimed to be 40 percent. That, too, was announced in a bizarre way. Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Kazi Habibul Awal, in a press briefing, said the turnout was about 28 percent, only to retract at the prodding of his colleagues and offered a new, higher number. However these numbers are presented in the future, their veracity will continue to dog the EC. Considering that the election was essentially uncontested, there was never any doubt about the victory of Sheikh Hasina and the AL, but the entire process has added further questions to her victory and the strength of her mandate.

As for the reactions of the international community, there was the predictable part—those who had already supported the incumbent have already sent congratulatory messages. These are India, China and Russia, along with a few other nations. The "unknown unknown" part of the equation was the reactions of Western nations. These countries insisted on a free, fair and inclusive election, but have remained remarkably silent since October 28. The US reaction, expectedly, stated that the January 7 election was not free or fair. In a similar fashion, the UK said that the standards of credible and fair competitions were not consistently met during the 12th parliamentary election. The West will continue to consider not only the stray incidents of ballot stuffing and violence on January 7, but also how the entire process unfolded contrary to its efforts.

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Economy hangs in the balance as Awami League hangs on to power

The US faces a dilemma: whether to reassess its relationship with Bangladesh and act robustly, or sidestep for a foreseeable picture. A robust action will demonstrate that it is returning to its divergence with India. Will Western countries go about a business-as-usual engagement with the "new" government? Notwithstanding the political aspect of it—an abandonment of its policy of democracy and human rights promotion—there is an institutional aspect to it too. For a long time, there have been security-related cooperation between the two countries, but leading to the election, evidently some of these institutions' integrity have been eroded as these have been blatantly used as political tools. If the US and the West adopt direct or indirect measures, there will be serious adverse impacts on Bangladesh's economy.

The predictable reactions of the trio—India, China and Russia—do not mean that the relationship between Bangladesh and these countries will continue as before. A contest between these nations, especially between China and India, will intensify to expand their sphere of influence. That will not be a matter of the distant future, but within a short period of time. Due to the ongoing economic crisis, Bangladesh will need to rely more on external support. This will bring Bangladesh and China closer, but how much closeness is acceptable for India is the question for the coming days. As such, whether the Western countries "act" or not, the country will continue to be the theatre of the Great Game.

Ali Riaz is distinguished professor of political science at Illinois State University in the US.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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BNP Standing Committee member Abdul Moyeen Khan today demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and cancellation of yesterday's "dummy election".

"Sheikh Hasina's resignation is the only option. Sheikh Hasina must resign and the dummy election of January 7 must be called off right away," said Moyeen at a press conference in the BNP chairperson's office in Gulshan.

Selima Rahman and Nazrul Islam Khan, other standing committee members, were also present at the programme.

"A government of the dummy, by the dummy, for the dummy will be established if Sheikh Hasina attempts to form any kind of government through the dummy election," Moyeen said.

He said people want an accountable government elected by their votes, not a "dummy government."

He said BNP and other pro-democracy parties will continue their movement until an "accountable government" is elected through polls.

"Until an accountable government is established by the people's vote, the countrymen will continue their movement and struggle," he added.

Moyeen accused the Election Commission of peddling contradictory turnout figures of 27 percent and 40 percent.

"Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal once said the turnout was 27 percent. Then immediately another commissioner, sitting next to him, revised it as 40 percent," he added.

The 27 percent figure was provided at 3:00pm, an hour before polls closed.

The BNP leader congratulated people for "rejecting" the January 7 polls, which he called a "one-sided election" held through abuse of "state power and a dummy Election Commission, candidates and observers."

Moyeen said 19 centres in Khagrachhari recorded "zero turnout", which proves the election was a "mockery".

"It's not just 19 centres, in many other centres across the country not a single vote was cast or only 10-12 votes were cast," he said.

He claimed that Awami League even failed to ensure voters' presence despite "fielding dummy candidates".

Moyeen said, "We're continuing to stay on the streets, conduct mass contacts with the public, and hand out leaflets. We'll announce the next course of action."

The BNP boycotted the upazila elections for five reasons, chief among which is its belief that the ruling party will control the polls, said party insiders.

Initially, the party thought that it would go soft on its leaders running as independents but decided against it because of the reasons.

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BNP opts out of 'farcical' upazila polls

The upazila election would be held in the national election model and that was why the ruling party did not nominate anyone for chairman posts, the insiders said, adding that just like the national polls some "ruling party independents" will run to make the polls appear competitive.

"None will be elected without the government's signal. If we join the polls, it will give nothing but legitimacy to the election," said a senior BNP leader.

Secondly, the BNP believes joining the upazila polls would be a betrayal to the people who boycotted the national polls responding to the party's call just a few months ago.

"The BNP cannot ask the people now to go to the polling centre.... It may hurt the sentiments of the people," a senior leader said.

Thirdly, if the BNP stays away from the polls, turnout would be poor -- sending a message across the nation and abroad that without the party's participation, polls will be lopsided and unacceptable.

Fourthly, the BNP does not want to be in the middle of infighting or violence between Awami League grassroots leaders.

And lastly, the BNP's like-minded parties boycotted the national polls with it and the party does not want to offend its allies.

"All the like-minded political parties are against joining the election. So, we must respect their views too," said a standing committee member, adding that this was why Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami tried to ensure none of its leaders ran.

Goyeshwar Chandra Roy, a standing committee member of the party, said the party earlier decided not to join any election held under this regime.

"Tens of thousands of BNP leaders and activists are facing cases and more than 27,000 party men were sent to jail over the January 7 parliamentary polls. Amid such a situation, we don't want to run into further trouble by joining the polls," he said.

However, some party leaders are hellbent on running as independents despite the BNP's warnings of punitive actions.

BNP leaders believe that those who hold posts in the party would surely withdraw from the polls race.

According to the party's central office, 49 leaders submitted nomination forms and around 35 leaders are still in the race.

"Some have withdrawn and some others have promised to withdraw," Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, senior joint secretary general of the party, said.

The BNP has already sent a message to the candidates that those who will not follow the party instructions will have to face the music.

Sources said most of the BNP leaders running don't hold any party posts.

The High Court today directed the Election Commission to allocate BNP’s election symbol “Sheaf of Paddy” to its four candidates in place of other four rival contenders who were earlier allocated the same symbol.

Kamrun Nahar Shirin will get “Sheaf of Paddy” in place of Monjurul Islam Bimal for Natore-1, Abdul Hamid Dabliu will get “Sheaf of Paddy” in place of SA Kabir Jinnah for Manikganj-1, Mostafizur Rahman will get “Sheaf of Paddy” instead of Khalek Chowdhury for Naogaon-1 and Masuda Momin will get “Sheaf of Paddy” in place of Abdul Muhith Talukder, Deputy Attorney General Motaher Hossain Sazu told The Daily Star.

He said Monjurul, Jinnah, Khalek and Muhith cannot contest the December 30 election following the HC orders, he said, adding that they can, however, move appeals before the Appellate Division of the Supreme Court against the HC orders.

The HC stayed for three months the EC’s decisions to allocate “Sheaf of Paddy” to Monjurul, Jinnah, Khalek and Muhith and issued separate rules asking the EC and government to explain in four weeks why the EC’s decisions should not be declared illegal.

The bench of Justice JBM Hassan and Justice Md Khairul Alam came up with the orders and rules following separate writ petitions filed by Kamrun Nahar, Abdul Hamid, Mostafizur and Masuda challenging the EC’s decisions.            

The writ petitioners said in their petitions that BNP nominated them first for contesting the December 30 general election.

But the EC allocated “Sheaf of Paddy” to their rival candidates in violation of the Representation of People’s Order (RPO), they said in the petitions.

BNP candidates for Manikganj-1 Khondaker Akter Hamid Dablu allegedly came under attack today.

Dablu claimed that criminals fired gunshots at his car twice in Ghior upazila town and Mohadevpur area of Shivalaua upzila while he was returning home from Daulatpur upazila nirbahi officer’s office this afternoon.

However, the two bullets missed his car, he said adding that he informed Manikganj police superintendent about the attacks.

Contacted, Rifat Rahman Shamim, superintendent of police in Manikganj, said that after investigation, police couldn't find any evidence of such incident.