The field is as level as the Martian surface
There is only one political party in the country that understands and indulges in professional politics. It can think and plan ahead to achieve a predetermined objective (perpetuation of power). And the way its plans and policies have panned out in the last five years, following an election which most of the Awami League leadership believe was anything but, only confirms its farsightedness. And since 2014 it has proceeded with that predetermined objective in mind.
In the writer's view, the Awami League has succeeded in implementing the first part of its plan, which was to get the only other major political party to participate in the national elections. AL had recognised that it could not continue another five years with the stigma of a government that assumed power through an election with questionable credibility, notwithstanding the legal validity accorded to it by the High Court after the 2014 election. Thus, the compulsion for the AL to make the BNP participate in the national elections.
Nevertheless, it is not that the AL had put all its eggs in one BNP basket. It had a backstop and a further fallback option too. Ershad's JP was an alternative to flaunt, but not as the domesticated opposition of a unique parliament that is not to be found in any political science literature, but an opposition of "acquired" credibility (through an understanding of "sharing" seats between the AL and JP(E)).
Another masterstroke of the AL was to drive a wedge in the opposition conglomerate by getting the father and son to disassociate from the potential larger alliance and offering them a manna of three seats. They have formed an agglomerate of inconsequential parties which could act as the opposition, should it be necessary.
But the ruling party needn't have worried about BNP's participation in the parliamentary election. BNP has had to pay dearly for its Himalayan blunder by boycotting the 2014 elections. It is still carrying the stigma of the senseless violence after the disputed election of 2014. It may be appropriate, in passing, to mention that reports have it that a good many arsonists arrested during that time belonged to other parties besides the BNP and Jamaat. Interestingly, there have been few convictions, if at all, in those specific cases even after five years of those incidents.
The BNP is only to blame for giving its detractors the meat for criticism. It became an excuse for the police for denying the party permission to hold political meetings and rallies in the last five years. But that was also a strategy of the ruling party: squeeze the political space for the BNP on grounds that appear apparently plausible. And that convenient excuse, that BNP would resort to violence given the slightest bit of space, became a handy expedient to keep the BNP leadership at various levels either behind bars or on the run. Numerous cases were lodged, with thousands of "unknown accused". And we all know what havoc the police can wreak by exploiting this tool. Such tactics of misusing the law enforcers to harass the opposition have been blatantly employed during the period of campaigning too.
The fears were not unfounded considering how things have turned out. The strategy to get the opposition to the battlefield but not allowing it the ground to maneuvre has been brazenly implemented with the important institutions and agencies playing their own roles. The EC has chosen to do nothing more than expressing its embarrassment. It has dismissed out of hand allegations of violence against the opposition despite evidence. On the other hand, it has taken measures to make the work of the media during polls day difficult by imposing stricter conditions.
Several ministers and MPs have been in breach of the election code, as we feared they would, with impunity. Threats have been made by some AL candidates to supporters of all other parties to avoid the polling centres, and opposition motorcades and rallies continue to face attacks from ruling party activists.
The police, unfortunately, has become a party in implementing AL's strategy. As a part of that, deterrents are being applied, sometimes directly by arresting in large-scale BNP members, mostly on old cases or as "unnamed accused", or subtly, by telling them to make themselves scarce from the locality and be so till the end of polls or risk incarceration. Therefore, if on Election Day the polling booths are without election agents of the opposition, we know why that is so.
But the BNP's participation in the polls is not the be all and end all of participatory election. An equally important aspect of elections is whether all parties can campaign without hindrance and every single voter is able to participate in the process and, eventually, cast their vote freely, rather than finding out that their votes have been already cast when they get to the polling station. That is the moot question that everyone is asking, with doubts becoming more certain as we approach December 30. The impediments created by the ruling party cadres compel one to come to this disturbing conclusion. Instead of equal opportunities, political space is shrinking. The comments of some of Bangladesh's close friends and development partners, about a free and fair election, are not mere articulation of routine niceties but an expression of apprehension garbed in diplomatic parlance.
As a footnote, one would like to ask: Why is the AL, that claims to have achieved so much, which it indeed has in so many areas, and which claims to be riding on the crest of unprecedented popularity, resorting to coercive measures and using government agencies to create hindrances for the opposition to do its bit of campaigning? Why is it so unsure of itself or its record?
The brazen contrast in the situation, as displayed by the pictures of senior government leaders campaigning under the protection and facilities of the state, and of opposition leaders being attacked by ruling party members with police doing little to protect them, speaks of the state of the playing field. It seems that the AL is not prepared even to have a situation where the BNP comes second in the race.
Brig Gen Shahedul Anam Khan, ndc, psc (retd) is Associate Editor, The Daily Star.
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