Mamata all set to seize the day?

PASHCHIM Banga Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's upcoming three-day visit to Dhaka starting February 19 on the eve of International Language Day celebration will be keenly watched by foreign policy makers and experts in both the nations as it has the potential to lift India-Bangladesh ties. It is also taking place at a time when the two key contenders of power—AL and BNP,  are locked in a battle of attrition with the US, Britain and European Union expressing concern over continued political violence and unrest.

It will be interesting to see how the dialogue between Mamata and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina unfolds. After all, Bangladesh shares major part of its international boundary, maximum common rivers, and strong historical, economic and socio-cultural ties with Pashchim Banga, and a positive outcome of the bilateral talks could bring about at least a semblance of stability in the country.

Though one may not find the euphoria of 1971, Bangladesh nevertheless continues to generate huge interest in Kolkata and a similar pattern is noticed in Dhaka. Mamata's landslide victory in the 2011 assembly elections was hailed in Bangladesh and Hasina promptly congratulated her and reaffirmed her government's commitment to strengthen the existing warm and friendly bilateral ties.

However, the relationship between Hasina and Mamata followed a different trajectory and Bangladesh gradually realised how unpredictable she could be. Mamata's persistent opposition to the Teesta deal since September 2011 when she refused to be a part of the Indian delegation led by former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the last moment was not appreciated in some quarters, including her state. In the process, she lost much of her credibility as a popular leader.

Mamata herself is accountable for the negative image in Bangladesh. Her stubborn attitude towards the Teesta question has been viewed as the main impediment to further deepen and broaden the bilateral relations. Some of her acts in the subsequent period only bolstered the popular perception. Reports suggest that Mamata refused to receive Hasina when she visited Kolkata and turned down an invitation to visit Dhaka as a state guest.

Mamata's popularity suffered further setbacks after the revelations of the joint investigation of the Burdwan blast episode by India and Bangladesh and her initial reluctance to handover the case to the premier investigation agency NIA. Some observers have even accused her of having links with the fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami. The security experts were also worried about her populist overdrives to consolidate support base at the expense of national security. Besides, the alleged involvement of a few prominent leaders of Trinamool Congress in the Sharada scam has added to her woes.  

Mamata's visit is to be seen against the backdrop of these developments. She needs to extricate herself from such debilitating situation and a trip across the borders not only offers her an opportunity to claim credit for revitalising India-Bangladesh relations but also improves her political standing. 

In a complete turnaround from her previous stance, Mamata was reported to be "overjoyed" with the invitation she received from the foreign minister of Bangladesh. She has recently made statements describing Bangladesh as a friendly neighbour and withdrawn her opposition to the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA). 

The mood is equally upbeat in Dhaka. The AL Government, which has been eagerly waiting for the visit to take place, considers this as the appropriate time to engage in dialogue with Mamata to find a solution to the pending bilateral matters notably the Teesta. Dhaka is aware of her plain speaking style.

Mamata's argument is based on the premise that her state may face drought like situation in the northern region if India concedes Bangladesh's demand. Her political aides claim that Ganga water has dried up near Farakka affecting Kolkata port badly as a result of releasing water to Bangladesh as per the provisions of the 1996 Ganga Water Treaty.

But it may be noted that other factors, including siltation of the river bed, are also attributed for the present disarray at Kolkata port. Its solution, among other things, lies in dredging of the river basin which the current union water resource ministry seeks to complete by 2018. Some Kolkata-based commentators observe that Mamata's hardening of the position on the Teesta was more influenced by political considerations. She sought to use the issue as a bargaining chip while demanding more resource allocation from the Centre for her state.

Mamata is scheduled to hold talks with Hasina and senior cabinet colleagues during her visit. It is important that for reaching a common ground on the ratio of sharing the Teesta waters, both the sides need to sort out contradictory claims regarding the amount of water currently available. It remains to be seen what approach Mamata adopts during the talks as she has not made any specific reference to the lingering Teesta issue. Reports indicate that she is not averse to accepting a modified version of the Teesta pact in which some of her concerns are adequately addressed. Any forward movement on the Teesta will be considered a breakthrough in the bilateral ties and in turn boost her image domestically as well as internationally.

It is a win-win situation for both the sides as the AL also stands to gain politically from amicable settlement of the outstanding issues such as Teesta and LBA. Sheikh Hasina is far more assertive and nationalist than her detractors want to portray her. At the same time, it cannot be denied that she has to show concrete result of improving ties with India and a mutually acceptable settlement of the sharing of Teesta water just fulfills that requirement. The other unresolved issues— border demarcation and exchange of enclaves will take place once the ratification process is completed in the Indian Parliament.

Meanwhile, attention will be focused on the mercurial leader who thrives on populism. Mamata last visited Dhaka in 1998 to take part in the golden jubilee celebration of the AL which was also in power at that time. Since then, Bangladesh has demonstrated its democratic and secular credentials under Sheikh Hasina, and earned accolades of the international community for counterterrorism efforts and performing well in the social sector. Moreover, the country has also excelled in the field of literature, art and culture—a feat acknowledged by many, including late Sunil Gangopadhay. We hope Mamata too appreciates such achievements of the Bengali nation while she participates in "Amar Ekushey" functions—a unique phenomenon not witnessed in any other South Asian country.

The writer is political analyst based in New Delhi.