‘The US will have to bypass India’s concern to ensure free and fair elections’

The Daily Star proudly introduces a fresh addition to our editorial repertoire: Geopolitical Insights. As we navigate the labyrinth of global power dynamics, we hope this weekly page will provide interesting perspectives to help our readers understand the global challenges better. This interview published in the first issue focuses on exploring the global power play in Bangladesh's elections.  – Mahfuz Anam, Editor & Publisher 

Anu Anwar, non-resident associate at Harvard University and PhD candidate at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, speaks to Ramisa Rob of The Daily Star about the changing geopolitical stakes in Bangladesh. 

Can you explain the logic behind US foreign policy in Bangladesh and the significance of the measures taken before the election?

Under the Biden administration's latest Indo-Pacific strategy, published in February 2022, "free and open Indo-Pacific" is one of the five key pillars that envisions strengthening democratic institutions, the rule of law, and accountable democratic governance across the region. Bangladesh clearly falls short in these democratic and accountability metrics. Bangladesh's last two national elections were anything but fair! No institutions are left to check the government and balance the domestic power dynamic. This vacuum enabled the government to tamper with the election and get away with it in 2014 and 2018.

Recent developments suggest the government could resort to the playbook of the past two elections. From Washington's perspective, these run counter to the objectives of the Indo-Pacific strategy. Thus, the US has embarked on a series of punitive and incentive measures aiming to yield benefits in restoring democracy in Bangladesh. Last year, a sanction was imposed on RAB on the grounds of human rights violation, and now the visa restrictions.

The US's effort appears as the only effective mechanism that stands between vote rigging and the government. Many government officials and politicians have assets in the US, and their family members live in the US. If their visa is rejected, they will not only be unable to travel to the US. This might also affect their travel to other Western countries, such as Five Eyes, that share intelligence exclusively among the US, the UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. This may create a deterrence effect on those officials not to engage in obstructions of free, fair elections. So, it may create a deterrence effect from engaging in undemocratic actions, but it's insufficient.

What impact can US foreign policy have on Bangladesh's upcoming elections, if any?

In my opinion, the visa policy can create a marginal effect on the upcoming election. Those who were rampant in the last two elections in vote rigging might give a second thought if they plan to visit the US. However, over the last 15 years of malpractice, many officials and politicians reached a point of no return in terms of their corruption and vengeance toward the opposition. They might fear that losing power will cost them more than obtaining a US visa. So, for their own sake, they will do all they can to keep the government in power. But the visa policy is just one of the components of the overall US policy towards Bangladesh. The US, as a superpower, has many tools in its toolkit. It remains to be seen how far Washington is willing to go.

What's at stake for the US regarding the elections in Bangladesh? What makes Bangladesh significant in the US' current foreign policy?

The US is showing relatively much more interest in this election than in 2014, or 2018, when they largely sided with India's stand. We did not see US efforts on this scale. Three things make this election different: changing geopolitics, the Biden administration, and public sentiment in Bangladesh.

First, the world is gradually transitioning to a bipolar world where the China and Russia axis persistently challenge US primacy and they complement each other for regional influence. When it comes to the great power competition in the Indo-Pacific, Bangladesh is strategically well-positioned due to its proximity to the Bay of Bengal and China-India-Myanmar. As the world's eighth largest country by population and the second-largest economy in South Asia, Bangladesh has become a regional player.

The Biden administration, unlike Trump, prioritises value-based foreign policy for which Washington intends to play a role in Bangladesh's democratisation process. Third, the US is capitalising on the majority of the Bangladeshis' aspiration for the right to vote, which is good for US public diplomacy but also for Bangladesh itself.

What are the implications of Bangladesh's participation in BRI and bilateral ties with China in the current geopolitical context?

Bangladesh's BRI participation brought new investment, increased trade volume, and enhanced bilateral ties with China. China is also an opportunity for the government to diversify its international partners and harness infrastructure and economic development with Chinese assistance. Since other great powers showed little interest in Bangladesh, India exploited Bangladesh's isolation for decades towards Delhi's end. China-Bangladesh relations help Dhaka to balance out India's hegemonic dictum over Bangladesh.

In recent years, BRI has come under criticism. In particular, US's skepticism about the BRI warranted the Bangladesh government to enhance its scrutinisation of the BRI projects. But Bangladesh's highest loan is to the World Bank (36 percent), Japan (19 percent), and ADB (23 percent); China accounts for less than seven percent of Bangladesh's total loan. So, if the government keeps this cautionary measure in place, Bangladesh will remain in the safe zone.

I think the real problem is the party-to-party connection between Awami League and the Chinese Communist Party, as recent developments in Bangladesh would suggest the former is keen to emulate the latter's many elements of a one-party state. This complicates geopolitics for Bangladesh as, at least rhetorically, the Biden administration defined the world as autocracy vs democracy. The incumbent government falls under the autocratic bloc, which is why Bangladesh was not even invited to any of the two US-led democratic summits.

Does the current India-US relationship have any strategic implications for Bangladesh and the upcoming elections?

One of the main problems with the US policy towards Bangladesh has historically been Washington's approach to seeing Bangladesh through the eyes of other regional countries. In the past, it was Pakistan, but since 9/11, the US has started outsourcing its Bangladesh policy to India. This undermined US-Bangladesh relations and put an obstacle to the US policy towards Bangladesh.

US-India relations are warmer now than in 2018. So, if in 2018, when ties were relatively weaker, the US considered India's position, I would think the US would consider India's position with much greater importance in the current South Asia policy. Frankly, if the US is committed to ensuring a free-fair election, it would require bypassing India's concern, but I am unsure if the US is willing to go that far. Especially, given the strong Indian lobby in Washington and US willingness to accommodate India almost unquestionably. Besides, two competing elements of the US foreign policy – "realpolitik" and "value" constantly clash, and there is no precedence where "value" wins over "realpolitik."

The US defines its relations with India under a realpolitik framework, whereas its only value is Bangladesh. The change the US might want to see in Bangladesh is just a component of its border security policy regarding India. So, in this current geopolitical context, I do not see a prospect of a US policy that would run counter to US-India relations. That being said, we should be mindful of the constantly changing nature of the geopolitical landscape in which nothing is impossible.

How can Bangladesh strategically leverage its relations with China, India, and the US?

Bangladesh would need to be realistic in its strategic positioning vis-à-vis China-India and the US. On the economic front, it is undeniable that China is a far better opportunity than India, but the US is indispensable. Not only is the US the largest export market and investor in Bangladesh, but the US has greater leverage over the international financial system through the US dollar, SWIFT code, and many other means. Thus, Bangladesh cannot afford to lose the benefit of the "system effect" by alienating the US.

On the security and strategic front, the calculation is much more complex. If Bangladesh decides to ally either with India or China fully, that will create a regional security dilemma as aligning entirely with one will be perceived by the other as a threat. India itself is struggling to halt China's border encroachment, not to mention two fronts of threats vis-à-vis China and Pakistan. On the other hand, China has the capacity, but there is no precedent that China extended its security umbrella to any country. Besides, in the current geopolitical calculation, China favours Myanmar and Pakistan over Bangladesh regarding its Southern Asia strategy. That leaves the US as Bangladesh's only option, but the US will never prioritise Bangladesh over nuclear power India.

Therefore, Bangladesh's strategic posturing should be centered on enhancing its own capacity to achieve an equilibrium in regional power dynamics. The status of strategic parity will provide Bangladesh a unique leverage at the bargaining table – based on which Dhaka could engage with China, India, and the US as suits its national interest.

We welcome your contributions and analysis of global events. To submit articles to our new page, Geopolitical Insights, please send us an email at ramisa@thedailystar.net or sajen@thedailystar.net 

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