Is Bangladesh doing population control right?

Bangladesh, after 1971, had to address the problem of uncontrolled population growth, and one of the key solutions was to look into the issue of women's reproductive rights and introduce the idea of family planning. Contraceptive prevalence rate during the mid-1970s was around eight percent, leaving the majority of women unable to access vital services for the well-being of their families. On average, a woman had more than six children in the early 1970s. Without the availability of family planning resources, women lived uncertain lives, unable to gain necessary foresight about their future.

With the introduction of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), Bangladesh has steadily decreased the maternal mortality ratio from 441 per 100,000 live births in 2000 to 123 per 100,000 live births in 2020. The reduction in mortality rate through better access to healthcare was also accompanied by a better contraceptive prevalence rate, which, according to Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2022, is 64 percent among married women of child-bearing age. Family planning campaigns and rising education rates among young girls have also acted as catalyst in this regard. Such milestones have been lauded globally in terms of population control as well as in terms of ensuring women's reproductive rights, thus partially achieving Sustainable Development Goal 5.6, which advocates for universal access to contraceptives.

Fast forward to 2011, the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh came down to and remained stagnant at 2.3 children per woman. Usually, a TFR of 2.1 is accepted as the ideal replacement level whereby the population of a country becomes stable. This principle of bringing down population growth by lowering the TFR can be traced to the principles of Malthusianism that revolves around the ideas of Thomas Malthus, who purported that a growing population puts pressure on the country's existing resources, resulting in fewer resources being available for each person, consequently putting strain on the existing infrastructure, healthcare and education system.

Neighbouring India, which has surpassed China in terms of population size and now is the most populated country in the world, has been aiming to bring down its TFR to the replacement level. Maintaining its growing population remains an ongoing challenge for one of the fastest growing economies in the world. However, in about 40 years' time, India's population is expected to stabilise as its replacement level has already fallen below the 2.1 threshold. Economists are becoming wary about the likelihood of a shrinking population as fertility rates are naturally coming down.

On the flip side, as countries reach the desired replacement level, the fear of an older demography and a high dependency ratio looms over. Certainly, a growing population isn't all doom and gloom; in fact, turning a young demographic into a demographic dividend remains a long-sought-after goal for countries. A younger population means a lower dependency ratio as, on average, a smaller dependent population needs to be supported. According to the Population and Housing Census 2022, Bangladesh's national dependency ratio is 52.68. Thanks to the 68 percent of our population who are in the age range of 15-64 years. Not only does youthful demography bring about enthusiasm and a fresh mindset to the workforce, it also helps to sustain the elderly and the underaged dependent population. A higher dependency ratio in the future would likely mean higher taxes for those with income to support the pension funds and the welfare economy.

Other than a higher dependency ratio, one does not have to look far to find what other roadblocks face a declining population. Superpower China with its One Child Policy from 1980 to 2015 has now adopted policies to encourage couples to have more children. However, policies like lower tax rates, cash incentives and other measures have all proven fruitless, because none of these addresses the problem of gender inequality faced by women when rearing a child. On top of that, due to the higher financial strain on the household, women and couples have become reluctant to have more children and altogether unable to find ways to survive in a competitive economic landscape while also raising a family.

On average, the world population is shrinking as the global TFR seems to be following a downward trend, inevitably reaching replacement-level fertility with a possibility of falling even further. At the replacement level, the minimum fertility rate needed to replace one generation with the next one is reached and the population comes to a likely equilibrium. As Bangladesh has also reached a near replacement level TFR of 2.3, and this number might go down in the coming decades or sooner, the question arises: how well will the country be able to handle a demographic shift from a majorly young vibrant generation, to an older, matured one?

In other words, what can Bangladesh learn from China and India, and what measures can it take today to ensure it sustains a minimum fertility rate so that the demography is just the right combination of youth and maturity? Given that the country's life expectancy has gradually increased from 50 years in 1971 to over 70 years in 2021, it is looking into supporting an elderly population with better healthcare and retirement facilities. Of course, once Bangladesh achieves universal coverage of contraceptive prevalence, quality education and gender equality, it can look into ways to maintain a minimum fertility rate all the while ensuring women's reproductive rights. However, the key would be in ensuring gender equality not only at the workforce but at the household level, whereby unpaid domestic workload is shared among the partners in a way that can ensure a smooth work-life blending for encouraging better birth rates to sustain future generations.

Population control has now evidently become a double-edged sword. Rising powers like China and India are aiming for two different results to manage their population: one addressing the decline while the other addressing its rise, both with the same target, to boost their economies and ensure a better standard of living for their people. Either way, whether a country is looking into ways to maximise its demographic dividend or aiming to minimise its demographic burden, it seems that population control in the near future would turn into population management. Against this backdrop, where Bangladesh's population policy should stand is a question that needs to be answered sooner rather than later.

Tashfia Rawnak Anika is a development professional.

Views expressed in this article are the authors' own. 

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