Conflict with Israel: Iran should tread with caution

November 2020: Eminent Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is killed outside Tehran in a sophisticated attack, in which remotely controlled weapons were used to spray his car with bullets, widely believed to have been carried out by Israel.

April 2021: A power outage resulting from a planned explosion hits Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment site, causing damage to its electrical distribution grid. Israel is suspected to be behind it.

July 2022: Iran arrests a sabotage team of Kurdish fighters working for Israel, who had planned to blow up a key defence centre in Isfahan.

January 2023: Iran thwarts drone attacks on strategic military locations in Isfahan, believed to be orchestrated by Israel, especially based on narratives on Telegram channels, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps affiliate Sepah Cyberi.

This recent surge in covert attacks by Israel at key strategic military locations inside Iranian territory has raised concerns among Middle East experts about fully fledged escalation of tensions between the two countries, propelling further regional volatility, especially in the context of the hawkish rhetoric from Israeli politicians and defence officials and their ally – the US – over the last few years.

Israel has not kept it a well-guarded secret that during the regime of former right-wing Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, it adopted an approach called "Octopus Doctrine" to attack defence sites inside Iran and weaken its capabilities from the inside. It could very well be the case that Benjamin Netanyahu is continuing the legacy of his predecessor. At least the style of the attacks on Isfahan defence sites points to that.

The drones used in the latest attack, late on the night of January 28, 2023, are quadcopter drones with four rotors that have considerably shorter range and are thought to have been operated from within Iran's territory. That means there could be Israeli operatives operating from within Iran, which has happened in the past. On the same night, a massive fire broke out at an oil refinery in Iran near Tabriz, which is also close to the East Azerbaijan Province. Although investigations are underway to identify the cause, this being part of a possible well-orchestrated Israeli attack cannot be ruled out. Moreover, the recent shooting inside the Azerbaijan embassy in Tehran that claimed the life of the embassy's security chief should also be reviewed in the light of the Isfahan attacks.

But the question remains: if Israel is indeed behind Saturday's attacks, what are its reasons? First of all, Israel has been looking for reasons to curb Iran's military ability, and there is no love lost between the two countries, who have been involved in a shadow war for the last three years.

Moreover, Israel has always been against the country finding acceptability within the international community, and has constantly kept high military pressure on Iran, so that finding peaceful solutions to its nuclear programme and integration with the international community remain out of limits for the country. Iran returning to the international fold and reinstating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) would take away from Israel the bogeyman it has been leveraging all these years to seek sympathy, support and military resources from the international community for its defence capability enhancement, including nuclear weapons.

Moreover, in recent weeks, Israel has been experiencing one of the worst internal civilian protests in decades as a result of the Netanyahu government's attempts to curb the powers of the country's courts, including the High Court and the Supreme Court. The new Justice Minister Yariv Levin unveiled his plans to introduce sweeping reforms in the judiciary, significantly curtailing its powers. This involves legislators passing laws that have been struck down by the courts, overriding Supreme Court decisions with a simple 61-vote majority in the Knesset, and ministers appointing their own legal advisers. The Israeli people are furious at the blows being dealt to their already struggling democracy.

It has been difficult for the Netanyahu government to subdue the protests. In the wake of this, an attack on Iran, to goad the country to retaliate, could well be a ploy to deflect the people's attention and play on their fears, so that they are forced to set their differences apart and back up the current government for greater safety and security. This has been a tried and tested suppression tool implemented to precision by various governments, to strike fear in the hearts of the people to "discipline" them. Israel has constantly used both Iran and Palestine to do so in the past, and continues the practice even today.

Iran must not play into Israel's hands. For the last few years, Israel has been very bold in goading Iran into action through hyperbolic rhetoric on wiping out Iran's existence, and carrying out provocative attacks inside the country and at key strategic sites in the region that are valuable to Iran. And Iran has shown maximum restraint, even when Israel-sympathiser and former US President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018, and imposed the harshest sanctions on Iran. And despite the multiple provocations from Israel and its ally, Iran's response has been mostly cautious and restrained.

Israel recently conducted a joint military drill with the US – Juniper Oak 2023 – involving more than 400 US troops, 1,500-plus Israeli troops, more than 140 aircrafts, 12 naval vessels, and artillery systems as a show of force against Iran. And these recent attacks inside Iran could very well be a well-contemplated action by Israel to provoke a response, to set the context to launch an all-out military escalation against the country, post its strengthened military capability.

While Israel is being reckless, Iran should play safe, and as always any response from Iran to this provocation should be non-violent, restrained and highly-measured, although this is easier said than done, as Israel has closed all doors for direct diplomatic outreach. In short, Iran should play the upper hand.

Perhaps the other regional players could open up some back channels to make both the countries, especially Israel, appreciate the value of regional peace and stability. A fully fledged war between Israel and Iran is something neither country, nor the region as a whole, or even the world community, can afford right now, no matter who the striker is.

Tasneem Tayeb is a columnist for The Daily Star. Her Twitter handle is @tasneem_tayeb