Iran’s possible responses

Military confrontation: Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and US President Donald Trump have talked tough during several crisis but neither have indicated an interest in all-out war. But the possibility of a military confrontation cannot be ruled out. Khamenei faces a dilemma. If he calls for restraint, he could look weak at home and among proxies who have expanded Iran’s reach. For this reason, Iran may choose to opt for a smaller scale retaliation. .Iran says it has precision-guided missiles, cruise missiles and armed drones capable of hitting US military bases in the Gulf, and reaching Tehran’s arch-enemy Israel.

BLOCKING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: A military confrontation or heightened tensions could halt the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, where one-fifth of the world’s oil production is shipped through. Such interruption, even for a short period of time, could affect the United States and many countries around the world. Iran cannot legally close the waterway unilaterally because part of it is in Oman’s territorial waters. However, ships pass through Iranian waters, which are under the responsibility of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Navy.

IRAN’S ASYMMETRIC TACTICS AND PROXIES: The targeted killing of Soleimani could endanger US forces stationed in the Middle East. Iran mainly relies on asymmetric tactics and its regional proxies in countries such as Syria, Iraq and Lebanon in order to counter more sophisticated US weaponry. Iran has passed on its drones and technical expertise to allies. Yemen’s Houthis have used Iran-made missiles and drones to bomb airports in Saudi Arabia, Iran’s main regional foe. Iran-backed militias in Iraq have used mortars and rockets to attack bases where US forces are located.

TIMING: Iran is unlikely to rush into action, according to Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “Iran has no choice but to strike back and retaliate assassination of Major General Suleimani,” he said. “But the Islamic Republic is patient and the timing and nature of that strike is not yet known to us.”

DIPLOMACY NOT CONFRONTATION: Iranian leaders have in the past kept the door open to diplomacy to achieve its aims, especially when its economy is squeezed hard by US sanctions designed to weaken the leadership. Iran and America, who have common interests and common enemies, worked together in the past, in Afghanistan, Iraq and other places. Iran has ruled out any talks with the United States unless it returns to a 2015 nuclear deal and lifts all sanctions it reimposed on Tehran after exiting the pact in 2018. Signalling that the door was open for diplomacy, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said after Soleimani’s killing that Washington was committed to reducing tensions in the region. “While many are predicting WWIII, the last 40 years of Iran’s history reflect that what’s paramount for the Islamic Republic is its survival. Tehran can ill-afford a full-blown war with the US while facing onerous economic sanctions and internal tumult, especially without Soleimani,” policy analyst Karim Sadjadpour said.