Published on 12:00 AM, June 08, 2021

UYGHURS IN XINJIANG

China policies could cut millions of births

Chinese birth control policies could cut between 2.6 to 4.5 million births of the Uyghur and other ethnic minorities in southern Xinjiang within 20 years, up to a third of the region's projected minority population, according to a new analysis by a German researcher.

The report, shared exclusively with Reuters ahead of publication, also includes a previously unreported cache of research produced by Chinese academics and officials on Beijing's intent behind the birth control policies in Xinjiang, where official data shows birth-rates have already dropped by 48.7% between 2017 and 2019.

Adrian Zenz's research comes amid growing calls among some western countries for an investigation into whether China's actions in Xinjiang amount to genocide, a charge Beijing vehemently denies.

The research by Zenz is the first such peer reviewed analysis of the long-term population impact of Beijing's multi-year crackdown in the western region. Rights groups, researchers and some residents say the policies include newly enforced birth limits on Uyghur and other mainly Muslim ethnic minorities, the transfers of workers to other regions and the internment of an estimated one million Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in a network of camps.

"This (research and analysis) really shows the intent behind the Chinese government's long-term plan for the Uyghur population," Zenz told Reuters. The Chinese government has not made public any official target for reducing the proportion of Uyghur and other ethnic minorities in Xinjiang. But based on analysis of official birth data, demographic projections and ethnic ratios proposed by Chinese academics and officials, Zenz estimates Beijing's policies could increase the predominant Han Chinese population in southern Xinjiang to around 25% from 8.4% currently.

"This goal is only achievable if they do what they have been doing, which is drastically suppressing (Uyghur) birth rates," Zenz said.