Who shot down the plane and why?

MALAYSIAN Airlines is probably going through the most difficult period of its existence. Within about four month's time -- after the mysterious disappearance of MH370 enroute from Malaysia to China -- a second disaster struck the airline, claiming 298 lives. The two accidents together claimed over 500 lives. The point relating to the disaster is that it is more than just an accident and in any case will significantly intensify the ongoing Ukraine crisis. The Russians, Ukrainian authorities or the separatists' wing may not have admitted to have shot down the plane, but it's not too difficult to assume who could have shot it down and with whose help.
What is likely to happen is that the growing concern among the Western countries that Russian zeal to support the separatists in eastern Ukraine with military equipment will now become more believable. If this concern is proved to be true then not only has a strong military backed separatist group emerged in Ukraine but there is also the presence of a terrorist organisation equipped with advanced military system such as the Buk anti-aircraft system. We know that Ukraine has been accusing the Russian army of supplying the rebels with advanced missiles but, thinking deeply, even if Russia did supply arms, was it necessary to provide the separatists with such advanced weaponry? The Ukraine air force, being at least 30 times weaker and smaller than the Russian air force, is not a threat under any circumstances.
If we take the shooting down of the plane as an accident then a cache of deadly arms has not only fallen into the hands of rebels but killers who may be whimsical and erratic without knowledge about the dire consequences of such misadventure.
The Russian president is reported to have reacted after the airplane crash by saying: “The country in whose airspace this accident took place bears responsibility for it” -- but it isn't as easy as it sounds as the territory falls under the conflict zone between Ukraine and Russia. One outcome of the Malaysian air disaster is that if Russia, in any way, was responsible for this tragedy then the pressure -- especially by the US and the Europeans -- for much tougher sanctions on Russia will only follow. As far as an independent investigation is concerned, it will be a difficult task as investigators will have limited access for implementing their techniques inside a restricted conflict zone. By now the Ukrainian government has accused pro-Russian rebels of removing at least 38 bodies from the scene while destroying debris relating to evidence, which the rebels denied.
What's distressing is that, in order to bring down an airplane from an altitude of 10,000 metres, long range lethal anti-aircraft weapons are needed, and the party that's responsible for carrying out the operation is still roaming scot-free. The Ukrainian airspace, in general, is a very strategic air-route which is used by scores of airliners as a connecting route for entering or exiting Asia and Europe. Except the British Airways no passenger airline is reported to have avoided the Ukrainian air space as a route to or from Asia. The million dollar question is that while the international air-trafficking authorities declared that an altitude over 32,000 feet of any Ukrainian airspace was safe, is it so any longer? Air traffic routes should be altered and substitute routes introduced during times of armed conflict as merely distance cannot be a benchmark for measuring safety any longer. Foremost, who knows who is in possession of what weapon after this heinous act?
Shooting down of the Malaysian plane followed the blaming by Ukrainian officials of the Russian air force for shooting down an Ukrainian ground attack jet on Wednesday, and also a transport plane on Monday. So the back-to-back air disasters should have alarmed the international flag carriers. Ukraine, on the other hand, cannot be spared either as it had admitted sometime around 2001 that its military may have been responsible for shooting down a Russian airliner that crashed into the Black Sea, killing all 78 people on board.
If we assume that it was the Ukrainian rebels who hit the plane -- presumably by mistake -- then they should be held responsible and penalised accordingly. The crash of Flight MH 17 is likely to have profound political and military implications around the region. Since the 'deed is done' now, it will be worthwhile to observe how sincerely and willingly Ukraine and Russia help the investigators to carry out their search for unearthing who shot the plane down and why.
 

The writer is Current Affairs Analyst, The Daily Star.