War tests West’s unity

Still reeling from the chaos of the Covid-19 pandemic, the world didn't need a war. The pandemic, which could have united the world, instead exposed and highlighted the divisions between the rich and the poor, the weak and the strong and the East and the West. 

And the war in Ukraine has widened those divisions.

The international order is being upended in a whole new way. It is a transformation of the international order. I must admit that Western hegemony may be coming to an end.

— French President Emmanuel Macron

When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, many expected a quick victory. However, six months later, after thousands of deaths and widespread destructions, the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II has turned into a grinding war of attrition. Though Russia now occupies roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian land, Putin's offensive has largely stalled.

The conflict has expedited the geopolitical changes already in motion. Alliances, worldviews, and energy markets have been tested while Europe has experienced its largest refugee crisis since World War II.

Countries responsible for global warming have in many cases renegaded from their promises on cutting fossil fuels on the pretext of an energy crisis triggered by the war, risking the goals set by the Paris climate summit.

This year was supposed to confirm the world economy's comeback from the Covid pandemic crisis. Instead, the six-month-old war in Ukraine has sparked fears of recession.

Global growth forecasts have been repeatedly cut, with the International Monetary Fund now expecting a 3.2 percent expansion compared to nearly five percent earlier. Inflation has soared everywhere, prompting central banks to aggressively hike rates -- a move that usually tames prices but slows economic activity.

Now, Ukraine is on life support, Russian troops are suffering significant losses, and the rest of the world is dealing with acute food shortages, skyrocketing inflation, and the possibility of a nuclear calamity.

In particular, developing countries, which on the whole have tried not to pick a side in the war, are also feeling the strain as high food and energy prices collide with already challenging debt burdens.

According to the UN, the war in Ukraine has led to a cost-of-living crisis. An estimated 1.6 billion people are exposed to at least one dimension of the crisis. About 1.2 billion of them live in 'perfect-storm' countries severely vulnerable to all three dimensions – food, energy and finance.

Before the war, Ukraine, one of the world's largest exporters of wheat, corn, barley and sunflower oil, used to ship around five million metric tonnes of grain each month. Thanks to a deal signed under UN supervision, the country is expected to ship around four million metric tonnes in August.

However, as per the deal, exports from Russia have not seen the expected progress raising alarm as the country is a major fertilizer source.

"If we don't stabilize the fertilizer market in 2022, there simply will not be enough food in 2023," UN chief Antonio Guterres warned recently.

Experts say even if the conflict were to end tomorrow, it will take years to repair the damage it caused.

Many believe the war has pushed Russia towards China more. The neighbouring countries, which are not natural allies, have formed a 'no-limit' relationship before the Ukraine offensive. Though China has not taken a side, President Xi Jinping, acknowledging Russia's security concerns posed by external forces, criticised western sanctions on Moscow and vowed to expand economic cooperation between the two countries.  

The controversial visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan allowed Moscow to align with Beijing more closely. But, analysts say, that wasn't enough to make Beijing back Moscow openly. 

Dmitri Trenin, who holds positions at both Russia's Institute of World Economy and International Relations and the Higher School of Economics in Russia, says Russia-China ties are pretty strong. According to Trenin, the war has completed Russia's pivot to the East, ending what he describes as a 300-year Western orientation, "for better or for worse."

"Moscow," he says, "is already shifting resources in that direction. The ambassadorship in Beijing is going to be more important than DC, Delhi more prestigious than Berlin and Tehran will outrank Paris."

The conflict has also allowed India, a rising regional power, to assert its rights and take a bold independent foreign policy. India has mostly defied western calls to avoid Russian oil and pointed to the hypocrisy that, despite the sanctions, most European countries still getting fuel from Russia. 

Surprisingly, many movers and shakers of the western world, not only political pundits in Beijing and Moscow, are now proclaiming that "Western hegemony is nearing its end".

At a closed-door meeting with France's top diplomats, as reported by several media, French President Emmanuel Macron said that "the international order is being upended in a whole new way. It is a transformation of the international order. I must admit that Western hegemony may be coming to an end"

Comparing today's China, Russia and India with the US, UK and France, Macron reportedly said these countries no longer believe in Western politics but are pursuing their own "national culture". 

According to him when these emerging nations find their own national culture and begin to believe in it, they will gradually get rid of the "philosophical culture" that Western hegemony has instilled in them in the past. And this is the beginning of the end of Western hegemony.

And he is not alone. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair recently said that the Ukraine war showed that the West's dominance is coming to an end as China rises to superpower status in partnership with Russia.

The world, Blair said, was at a turning point in history comparable with the end of World War Two or the collapse of the Soviet Union: but this time the West is clearly not in the ascendant.

"The world is going to be at least bi-polar and possibly multi-polar," Blair said. "The biggest geo-political change of this century will come from China, not Russia."

China's economy is forecast to overtake the United States within a decade and it leads in some 21st-century technologies such as artificial intelligence, regenerative medicine and conductive polymers.

"China's place as a superpower is natural and justified. It is not the Soviet Union," said Blair, who was prime minister from 1997 to 2007. Its allies are likely to be Russia and Iran, he added.

Posing a big challenge to US supremacy, China and Russia have moved to boost direct trading between their currencies shunning the dollar.

The non-dollar transactions, a de-risking strategy, have gained momentum as many neutral countries have expressed their concerns about the 'arbitrary' sanctions imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia plans to price some oil contracts in the yuan, while India is exploring a rupee-ruble payment structure.

So far, the United States and Europe have largely stood together in the face of Russia's invasion. The sweeping sanctions remain in place and they are eagerly assisting Ukraine's military. Realising Putin's fears, Nato is on the brink of expansion, as Sweden and Finland are poised to join the alliance, the latter's accession set to expand the group's border with Russia by more than 800 miles.

However, the longer the war will drag on the greater will be the risk of Western divisions over Ukraine.

This united front faces its greatest test this winter, as gas supplies come under strain and Putin's leverage over the continent grows. For now, Europeans are feeling the pain in their wallets, but questions surrounding the effectiveness of sanctions may multiply as the cold sets in.

The US and the EU have signed energy deals to avert the dire situation in Europe in winter as supply from Russia, which supplies about 40 percent of the EU's gas needs, becoming more unpredictable.

But the delivery and costs are major issues. Last week, France and Germany have warned that fuel costs may rise tenfold, which is expected to trigger price hikes in almost all products and protests.

Cold winters helped Moscow defeat Napoleon and Hitler. Putin is now betting that sky-rocketing energy prices and possible widespread unrest this winter will persuade Europe to strong-arm Ukraine into a truce -- on Russia's terms.

But will Ukraine agree to cede the Donbas region to Russia? Will the US supply more long-range missiles than the current HIMARS multiple-rocket launchers risking a wider conflict? Can the united West somehow force Russia to pull back its forces from Ukraine?

Only time will answer those.