Repeal of India’s farm laws a political decision
Electoral politics in a democracy like India is all about taking the right decision at the right time and popular perception. So, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to the televised address to the nation at the unusual time of 9am (local time) to announce the decision to withdraw the three controversial farm laws passed by parliament more than a year ago, the fresh assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh (UP, India's most populous state), Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa less than six months down the line could have been uppermost in his mind.
The decision to take back the three laws—which were passed by parliament in September 2020 to reform the farm sector, particularly for the "benefit" of 80 percent of poor farmers with less than two hectares of land—that Modi had so aggressively defended before came after the government held out for more than a year in the face of unrelenting street protests by farmers, mainly from Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh on the borders of Delhi.
This was the second time the Modi government was forced to climb down on an issue related to farmers. In 2015, a year after Modi was swept to power in May 2014, he had to revoke the Land Acquisition ordinance after sustained pushback against it, in what was seen as a clear indication that his government remains mindful of possible electoral fallouts over the issues concerning farmers, who constitute nearly 60 percent of the electorate.
The difference between the land acquisition law withdrawal in 2015 is that BJP gained a key regional ally in Bihar, but in the case of farm sector laws, the saffron party's stand cost them a key Punjab ally, Shiromani Akali Dali, in 2020. In 2015, the BJP had faced an electoral battle in the eastern state of Bihar, in alliance with regional party Janata Dal (United) headed by Nitish Kumar, to win power there.
The same indomitable urge to win elections appears to be in play in the battle for Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and the other smaller states in the first half of 2022, whose results would be a bellwether for the BJP and the opposition ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
It is frequently said that the road to majority in the Lok Sabha passes through Uttar Pradesh, electorally the most crucial state, since it has the highest number of 80 seats. So, much depends on which party gets to rule the state in the coming assembly elections.
There has been growing concern within the BJP about the traction gained by the farmers' protests against the three farm laws, not just in UP but also in the other states that are going to the polls in early 2022.
What has added to the worry of BJP leadership is the party's dimming prospects in the western part of Uttar Pradesh, considered the state's granary, which accounts for nearly 130 of the 400-odd seats in the state assembly. The BJP is also concerned that the speculation about an alliance between key regional parties of UP Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal would be a big headache had the issue of farmers' protests remained unresolved.
Adding to the BJP's woes in UP was the adverse impact of the killing of four farmers in the Lakhimpur Kheri district on October 3, who were mowed down by an SUV that was allegedly driven by the son of junior home minister Ajay Mishra Teni.
The fact that BJP has decided to deploy Modi's key aide and Home Minister Amit Shah and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to connect with the booth-level party workers in western Uttar Pradesh in the next couple of weeks reflect the pressure on the party, as far as the election goes.
Many in the Modi government, including the prime minister himself, often point to its penchant for many firm decisions, including demonetisation in November 2016, scrapping of Article 370 to withdraw the special status for Jammu and Kashmir in 2019 and the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act, and riding out the storms created by them.
Therefore, the decision to repeal the three farm laws has, in their minds, dented the image of a tough and decisive government, even though it is also an acknowledgement that in politics, invulnerability is often only skin-deep.
The famers' protest against the three farm laws provided a glue to opposition parties to join hands against BJP in the coming round of assembly elections in five states, including Punjab and UP, where the issue has a bigger resonance. But will withdrawing the three farm laws be enough to disarm BJP's rivals? Has Modi had a change of heart on the legislation after having justified them so passionately in the last one year, or is this only for the purpose of election manoeuvring? Even in his address to the nation today, Modi stuck to his guns, claiming that the three farm laws were drafted with the intent to empower farmers, particularly those with holdings of less than two hectares.
In 2015, the Modi government had faced not only opposition ire, but also heat from its allies such as Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal (both are out of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance), and from affiliates of BJP's ideological fountainhead RSS, such as Bharatiya Kisan Sangh and Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh. A similar blow-back or a nudge may also have quietly taken place from RSS and its frontal wings.
Whether the decision to repeal the three farm laws will have the desired effect for BJP in the coming assembly elections in five states remains to be seen. The question is: has the retreat by the Modi government come too late in the day?
Pallab Bhattacharya is a special correspondent for The Daily Star. He writes from New Delhi, India.