Vicarious pleasure in Modi victory

INTEREST in the Indian election results evinced by the two major parties is understandable, and there are very good reasons for the differing views that the AL and BNP hold regarding the outcome. If the AL thinks that the reaction of the BNP to BJP win is like as if it was a win for BNP, the BNP on its part may have cogent ground to see the change of guards in India as a start of a bilateral relationship based on country to country and not party to party dynamics.
The BNP's apparent vicarious pleasure at the Congress defeat is understandable, although one must consider the fact that out of the total votes cast, the BJP share was 31%, and the difference in terms of percentage of votes obtained by the two major parties is around seven. The election in Bangladesh was a sham and the BNP feels that it had a good chance to beat the AL had there been an election under a neutral government. Thus the Congress drubbing is seen as a thrashing of an AL backer; and the AL, the BNP feels, would have met the same fate had there been free and fair election on January 5.   
While the hurry on the part of the AL and BNP leaders to congratulate Modi may have appeared a tad ridiculous, that too is understandable. After all, Modi is the new kid on the block whom everyone wants to befriend. And I am inclined to think that even Narendra Modi was embarrassed to receive letter of felicitation even before he had assumed office, and not only be asked, by the Bangladesh PM, to make Bangladesh the first destination of his foreign visit but also to make it his second home, as reported in some newspapers. He may have been also amused to see a parallel drawn by our prime minister to the resounding popular support to BJP and her claim of similar support to the AL by the Bangladesh voters.
Be that as it may, we should delve into what the BJP wins means for the political parties and indeed for Bangladesh without going into the many lessons that we can take from the Indian election like the role of the ECI, whose firm stand made even one like Mamata Banerjee to fall in line, perhaps under threat of possible president's rule in Paschim Bangla if she did not comply with the Commission's orders, the conduct of the political parties, conduct of the party in power during the election, and putting the country over party.
Perhaps all the hype in Bangladesh about the Indian election was overdone. After all, this is not the first time that the BJP will be holding the reins of the central government in India. And Modi as prime minister will not see India shedding its secular credentials overnight. Remember there are the 69% voters who did not vote for BJP. What one would want to know, however, is whether the Modi win indicates the abnegation of the inclusive religious and cultural ethos, notwithstanding the cleavages, that had defined India so long, or an affirmation of the deep influence of religion and religious ideology on politics.
One thing is certain that the Gandhi charisma has worn off, and even though one must not write off Congress to bounce back, dynastic politics in India may well have come to an end. But it took an extreme right wing Hindutva party to accomplish that.  
The AL would have liked the Congress to return to power as much as the Congress did not want to see power change hands in Bangladesh. However, one feels that change in power in New Delhi is a change for the better for the AL. It will be easier for the AL to take a firmer stand on bilateral issues and easier too not to fight shy of refusing concessions to BJP that it had so readily granted to the Congress. One wonders whether the AL would have acceded to all the demands of the Indian government so readily if it was the BJP and not Congress that were in power.
While one does not foresee a major shift in India's Bangladesh policy, there may be change in strategy to fulfill its objective. It is difficult to agree with those who believe that it will be easier for a party with an overall majority in the parliament to resolve the outstanding issues. Not quite so because in that case the BJP will have to change its fundamental stand on the LBA, and Teesta issue with Mamata and Modi at daggers drawn seems destined to linger.
 

The writer is Editor, Op-Ed and Defence and Strategic Affairs, The Daily Star.