Understanding the ISIS menace

Amenacingly armed political entity has risen over the horizon in the Middle East. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (the region consisting parts of modern Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon) or ISIL, also known as ISIS, the acronym derived from its Arabic name, AD-Dowla Al-Islamiyyafil Iraq wa as-sham announced its arrival in June this year. The self-proclaimed Islamic Caliphate soon changed its name to simply the Islamic State (IS). One Abu Bakr al Baghdadi declared himself to be the new Caliph and assumed the title of the Commander of the Faithful Caliph Ibrahim.

The new Caliphate aspires to unite all Muslims and bring Muslim-inhabited regions of the world under its direct political control. For ideological jihadists, the Caliphate is the ultimate goal and IS has come closest to reviving that vision. The difficulty is that the Shias, about one fifth of the total Muslim population by one estimation, are ideologically opposed to the Caliphate, which is seen as a Sunni enterprise. It is relevant to remember that the historic schism in Islam, the Sunni-Shia cleavage occurred over the issue of succession after the founding four Caliphs.

Interestingly, no ruler in Islamic history has been able to command the sole spiritual and political power over all Muslims and it does not guarantee the survival of any Muslim ruler. Indeed, the current announcement of the Caliphate has been met with derision everywhere except in jihadi circles. In fact, no Caliphate in Islamic history has succeeded in uniting all Muslims or created a political entity for the Islamic Ummah as a whole.

In 1924, the first President of the Turkish Republic, Mustafa Kemal Atartuk abolished the institution of the Caliphate as part of Turkey's republican constitutional reforms. A summit was convened at Cairo in 1926 to discuss the revival of the Caliphate but most Muslim countries did not participate and no action was taken to implement the summit's resolutions. The concept of the Caliphate thus disappeared into oblivion.

The ideological appeal of the Caliphate has helped the IS in recruiting young radicals from all over the globe and elicited some conservative popular support from Muslim countries, including Pakistan. ISIS has gained notoriety for its harsh interpretation of Wahabi School of Islam. Inspired by its intensely sectarian beliefs, it has unleashed unspeakable violence, directed mainly at Shia Muslims, Christians, and other minorities. Reportedly, even the al-Qaeda could not stomach the rigidity and brutality of the ISIS.

It is pertinent to recollect that ISIS has been incubated as an organisation by its participation in the Syrian civil war. Its rise has led to fears of another Talibanised Afghanistan in the heart of West Asia with its attendant destabilising consequences. The misguided western policy of toppling non-Sunni regimes in Middle-East with active support of Saudi Arabia and Turkish regional ambition has dragged the region into a quagmire of instability. Consequently, the two largely secular countries like Iraq and Syria have been driven to the brink of disintegration, thereby encouraging the so-called Islamic extremism and sectarian violence.

The new Caliphate may be able to win few localised battles but cannot win large wars, and its spiritual impact will be negligible. However, it might gain support in Pakistan and al-Qaeda's leadership based in Pakistan may turn more hardline to contest the ISIS rival. This will not bode well for the security situation in Pakistan and its spillover effect into India.

Putting things in perspective, it would be proper to recall that the tragic events in Iraq and Syria can be traced directly to President Bush's misguided Iraq war. The violent conflict between Shiites and the Sunnis in the region is a result of that diabolic strategy engineered by the neo-cons in the Bush administration. The inability of the outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri Al-Maliki, to build an inclusive government of reconciliation enabled the convergence of al-Qaeda and Islamic jihadists group, thus causing the great tragedy in the region.

The military success of the ISIS owes greatly to the anger that has exploded in the Sunni provinces of Iraq following Al-Maliki's ruthless suppression, targeting Sunni leaders for assassination and arrests, and the general exclusion of Sunnis from ruling circles.

The dominance of the ISIS in the annexed areas may ultimately result in the trifurcation of Iraq into Sunni-Shia-Kurdish controlled areas. This might mean stabilisation of ISIS control which in turn is likely to provide a fillip to jihadists worldwide and also a springboard for expanding strikes in the region and beyond. The likely scenario may be one of Sunnis and Shias continually slaughtering each other and keeping Muslims busy in internecine warfare, thereby unwittingly implementing the sinister game-plan of Western powers.    

The writer is a columnist of The Daily Star.