Is Theresa May in for a surprise?

British Prime Minister Theresa May has faced huge criticism for her deliberate absence from a BBC debate held on May 31 in Cambridge with other leaders, including her strongest opponent Jeremey Corbyn of Labour Party. Mrs. May argued that she "prefers to reach out to the real voters" while "Jeremy prefers the number of debates".

Theresa May surprised everybody by calling a snap election on April 15, 2017, citing as an excuse the need for a stronger Britain with a renewed mandate for BREXIT negotiations with the EU. Calling the opposition parties "a coalition of chaos", Theresa May maintained that only she could "negotiate the right Brexit deal, fully committed to the cause with a clear plan to see it through". And, she is prepared to negotiate with a principled position and the belief that "no deal is better than a bad deal" on issues such as immigration, cost of divorce, trade, EU rules, and supremacy of the British judiciary, among others. 

On policy issues, Theresa May has not been so comfortable. The non-EU immigration cap she introduced as Home Secretary failed (the number rose to 175,000 against a cap of 100,000 a year). Her policies on austerity measures, which impacted social care (even cutting lunch for school children), police force and the NHS, faced stiff criticism. The Labour manifesto (titled For The Many Not The Few) on the other hand, received positive reaction which resulted in enhancing the ratings dramatically in Mr. Corbyn's favour, though the party still trailing by 5-9 percentage.

Earlier, Mrs. May's performance in a TV interview with Mr Corbyn didn't auger well. Both the leaders were practically grilled by the moderator. Mr. Corbyn did better by responding knowingly and forcefully to the questions. Mrs. May termed the labour policies "half cooked and unrealistic" and claimed that Mr. Corbyn will be a "risky choice for Brexit negotiations just 11 days after the general election wanted by EU". Mr. Corbyn is also "absolutely unprepared", she added.

Even in the BBC Question Time: Leaders speak programme, although they were given separate time slots, Theresa May faced awkward questions that called out on her manifesto lacking detailed information on policy issues, particularly on social care. Jeremy Corbyn, on the other hand, appeared rather confident and well-prepared with a detailed manifesto.

Calls for a snap election, political analysts suggest, was not even necessary as Theresa May, before triggering Article 50 for BREXIT, had the approval of both the Houses of Commons and the Lords. She probably declared snap polls to enhance her legitimacy as the PM of Britain by winning a general election as leader of her party. But it is to be noted that she had high popularity amongst pollsters vis-a-vis Mr. Corbyn (around 20 percent) even in mid April, projecting an overwhelming majority for her party. 

She was not in a comfortable position even within her party politics. Her Secretary of State Boris Johnson, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union David Davis, and former Justice Secretary Michel Gove, openly campaigned against former Prime Minister David Cameron during the Brexit referendum. She had failed to carved out a profile against Cameron even while claiming leadership of her Party and the country. 

Pollsters suggest that Mrs. May could lose the present simple majority and it will be a "hung Parliament'. Recent opinion polls suggested that the gap between May and Corbyn is continually narrowing, though she is still leading. However, pollsters also projected that Conservatives would lose 20- 56 seats against Labour's 28 seats gain in 2015. Considering the failure of pollsters in predicting a Conservative majority in 2015, the BREXIT referendum and Trump's victory, people have started losing faith in them. 

The BREXIT issue will definitely impact this election but the economy has also emerged as a factor. The Swing voters group will be larger than before. Mr. Corbyn started attracting pro- and anti-Brexit voters in favour of a 'deal' with EU on a win-win basis. Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) could regain the position that they lost in 2015 while the Scottish National Party has become even more serious about solidifying their position in Scotland.

If it's a hung parliament, even if Theresa May still leads in the election, her leadership within her party will be questioned. Essentially, she will either leave or be weaker even if she manages to muster up a coalition government, that too provided that the Conservative's former partner Lib Dem enjoys sufficient numbers and is willing to join the coalition. LibDem is, however, very vocal against Brexit this time around and favours a single EU market which would include Britain. 

Theresa May has already been cautioned by EU leadership to not mislead the British voters about the cost of the 'divorce' and EU's fundamental pillar-free movement of their citizens and their rights. Presently, the EU has been quite inflexible and demonstrated their solid unity and readiness to negotiate on the 11th day of the British election.

Contradicting the poll ratings, Mr. Corbyn could also emerge as the Prime Minister of Her Majesty's government, though he has a different position on British monarchy and 'personally prefers for Britain to become a Republic'. If he forms a coalition, he too, will be in a weaker position when it comes to negotiations with the EU. That is possibly the reason why Mr. Corbyn indicated that he would be interested in reaching a 'deal' as opposed to Theresa May's hard line "no deal is better than a bad deal" stance. However, it would be premature to bet on either May or Corbyn as a clear winner.

Following Ed Miliband's debacle in 2015, Jeremy Corbyn emerged as the Labour Leader from nowhere. Immediately after the BREXIT referendum, he had to prove his leadership once again. As a 'radical left winger' Jeremy Corbyn has recently proved himself a survivor with regard to his leadership crisis since 2015. Thus, the question remains: Are the British people and others who are interested in Westminster politics, and particularly Mrs. May, in for a surprise? 

The writer is a former Ambassador and Secretary.