Outcome of Lima

BANGLADESH has faced some big natural calamities, e.g., devastating flood of 1954, severe seaborne cyclone of 1970, countrywide flood of 1988 because of heavy rainfall, cross boundary flood of 1996, flood from a depression in 2000 and flood in the haors in 2004. Those calamities could be taken as natural phenomenon as usual, but on December 11, 1997, the Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted a protocol in Kyoto of Japan, to address climate change due to global warming. Global warming is changing the world climate, by melting the ice in the poles and glaciers of the mountains. It is caused mainly by the consumption of fossil fuel and greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted by the developed countries (carbon footprint), which leads to increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated in 2007 that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 was 0.038% in 2005, compared to 0.028% in the pre-industrial times. According to the IPCC estimates, sea level could rise from 9cm to 48cm by 2080 in a 'Low Emissions Scenario,' and from 16cm to 69cm in a 'High Emissions Scenario.'

In the twentieth century, the sea level had risen @ 1.8mm per year; during 1993-2000 it rose @ 3.1mm per year. Bangladesh faces an increasing threat of submersion of the coastal areas from sea level rise, drought, flood, etc. because of global warming. Netherlands, Denmark and Maldives may go under sea water in near future if this trend continues. In recent years, cyclone Katrina hit New Orleans on August 29, 2005; cyclones Irene and Sandy hit New York City on August 29, 2011, and October 29, 2012, respectively, and inundated vast low lying areas with sea water. They are also thought to be the effects of sea level rise. In Bangladesh, cyclones Sidr of November, 15, 2007, and Aila of May 25, 2009, are thought to be effects and signs of global warming.

On October 24, 2014, member states of the European Union (EU) arrived at a landmark deal to cut GHG emission into the atmosphere. They set a target to cut about 40% emission by 2030, compared to that of 1990, to check global warming. In addition to the GHG, two more targets were agreed upon: 27% renewable energy market share on EU as a whole, and 27% increase in energy efficiency improvement. The former target is not binding on all states and the latter remains optional to all with a possibility to raise it to 30% by a review in 2020. The EU had already set 20% reduction target by 2020, though environmentalists say it could do more. But the EU Commissioner for Climate Action, Connie Hedegaard, said she was “very proud” that the leaders “were able to get their act together on this pressing climate challenge” (bbc.com).

The IPCC released a Synthesis Report on November 1 on its fifth assessment on climate change, looking into its cause, impact, and possible solution to the slow warming of our world. The 116-page document shows how energy consumption by nations is altering the planet. It blames fossil fuels for contributing to 78% of the total GHG emitted into the atmosphere from 1978 to 2010. The IPCC has set a deadline for phasing out fossil fuels by 2100. With this follow up from IPCC, it appears that the climate change issue is gaining momentum.  

The 20th Conference of the Parties (COP) on climate change was held in the first week of December in Lima to prepare a deal to be signed in the 21st COP Conference to be held in Paris, in the middle of December 2015. The Lima conference virtually collapsed as nations were too far apart to arrive at an agreement. Finally, a document was produced, but it is non-binding on the nations.  

The Lima Conference document, reiterating the works of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action under the UNFCC, noted with grave concern the significant gap between the aggregate effects of Parties' mitigation pledges, in terms of global annual emissions of GHG by 2020. Nevertheless, it affirmed its determination to strengthen adaptation action through the protocol, another legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention (UNFCC), to be adopted at the 21st COP Conference in December 2015. But in Article 8 it noted that the arrangements specified in the Lima document in relation to intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) are without prejudice to the legal nature and content of the INDC of Parties or to the content of the protocol, another legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties. So, in Article 9 of the Lima document, it invites each Party to communicate to the Secretariat its INDC towards achieving the objectives of the Convention (UNFCC). According to Articles 13 and 16, all Parties are invited to communicate their INDC well in advance of the 21st session of the COP Conference (not binding).    

The Kyoto Protocol has support of 196 states and international organisations (Parties) so far. Germany, leading the 28-nation EU, is playing a major role in combating climate change. Its share of renewable energy in its national energy budget has risen from 6.3% in 2000 to 30% in 2014. EU was pressing for an agreement to reduce emission of GHG globally. But the biggest polluter today, China, insists that by 2030 it will reach the peak, after which it is likely to decline. The next big polluter, USA, wants to cut emissions by as much as 28% by 2025. The 3rd polluter, India, has priority on economic development, so directly opposes any agreement. The 4th polluter, Russia, wants to ignore the whole process. Canada had left the protocol in December 2011. Australia is no more interested in reducing emission of GHG. With the collapse of the Lima Climate Conference, the future of the 21st COP conference in Paris appears to be gloomy.   

The writer is Chairman, Institute of Water & Environment.    Email: minamul@gmail.com