Will there be light at the end of this darkness?
Is there light at the end of this COVID-19 darkness? In a world reeling from the unexpected and unrelenting hit from COVID-19, this is an apt question. The whole world including some 2018 countries so far are in shock from a strange virus that seems to have originated from the Wuhan province in China and have spread to far ends of the world, sparing neither class, nor religions, rich or poor, caste nor ethnic groups. In ferocity it has hit such diverse countries like Iran, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Other countries like South Korea, Japan, India and Pakistan and Bangladesh have not been spared either. The scale and the speed of spread and the inflicted numbers have varied. But the end game is not anywhere in sight. No one knows when and how this will end. It is as if the world is in an abyss with no end in sight. But surely there has to be and there will be an end to this storm, this despair and sufferings. Humanity has to survive. It has to survive with faith, determination, technology, research, will and cooperation and mostly love and care. We need each other.
Today on the second week of April, over 1.4 million people have been affected; more than 72, 000 people have died. 335,000 people have been deemed to have recovered worldwide. The worst affected people have been USA where the effected numbers are the largest, over 365,000, and over 9,000 dead, Italy next with more than 17,000 people dead, Spain with more than 13,000 people dead and UK with more than 7,000 people dead.
In lesser developed countries where it has not peaked yet, 155 people are dead in India and 20 people in Bangladesh where the confirmed people as of April 7. Many areas of Bangladesh including Narayanganj, parts of Dhaka are now in lockdown. Other parts of Dhaka and rest of the country are in what is being called partial lockdown.
More countries all over the world are getting infected and those infected are getting worse. The only good news so far has been from China, where no new cases have been reported for the last three days and the lockdown in Wuhan is gradually being lifted. Where and when the whole Pandemic will end nobody knows for sure, or how far it will go before it ends. We are praying for its end.
Bangladesh, where its impact initially was moderate, is beginning to pick up the infected count. In numbers infected it has trebled in only the last three days. It is also suffering, both from its impact and fear. Schools, colleges, universities and businesses have been closed. People have been asked to isolate and quarantine themselves and to stay at home, except for hospitals, pharmacies, and kitchen groceries. On declaration of the closedown, people have left Dhaka in hordes for their villages and rural homes. Some people on returning from abroad have been asked to quarantine themselves in their homes for a period of two weeks. It is not known how many have obeyed and how many have neglected. There was and is a potential danger that some of the returnees from abroad who may have been infected and came back to Bangladesh and were allowed to return to their homes unsupervised, might have spread the virus among their families and friends. We will not know how badly the situation is for at least another two weeks.
On the economic front and on the commercial side, the effects are just beginning to be felt. Large numbers of garment industry orders are known to have been cancelled or postponed. By this time approximately USD 3.2 billion worth of orders may have been lost. But the industry will recover in time, with will and determination. Small and medium business have been badly hit. We shall not know the extent of the damages until later. Day labourers, rickshawpullars, slum dwellers have no job, no income and are left bewildered from the shock. Many are crowding the roads and alleys in hope of food assistance. Some social relief have been provided by the government and other people.
As an Urbanist who has been working in the areas of urbanisation, migration and urban transportation in Bangladesh for over 25 years, I am very scared when the controls on movement will be lifted. Greater Dhaka is a metropolitan area of 20 million plus people (worldometer). The density is one of the highest in the world. Because of Corona fear more than 12 million people left in a hurry. As of now the return date deadline is April 16. This should be extended to April 30. The gestation period will give us time and a much wider and deeper picture of the situation and a means of tacking the issues. Once the restrictions are lifted, those who have moved out of Dhaka on March 27 through March 30, will start pouring back in through launches, trains and buses in huge numbers breaking all the good work of social distancing practiced in the past three weeks. The close proximity and (GadaGadi) mingling will definitely bring in close physical contacts with those incubated in the interim (both in the city and those returning), but still showing little or no signs of diseases with those not yet affected. We must avoid this by staggering the returns over at least two further weeks to lessen the overcrowding. The lifting of restrictions on travel may be done district by district over a period of two weeks. Factories should be opened in stages; offices should be opened in phases. Schools, colleges and universities should remain shut till after Eid. Mosques should not lift ban on gatherings till after Eid. All prayers including during the Ramadan should be performed at home and not in close gatherings. There will be financial and economic losses. However, lives are more important than financial and economic losses. We shall recoup the financial losses in time. The nation will be better for it.
In the end small and large powers must end all biological experimentations worldwide. SARS MRAS, Ebola have caused the world immense sufferings. The world must learn a lesson from COVID-19 disaster and must come to an agreement to end these kinds of biological experiments. Otherwise, we will all die at some point in a bigger disaster.
The people in this nation should come together spiritually. The nation must come together in love. We must see the end of this thing through together, as we have seen the end of many a disaster. The world will see this thing through, through mutual cooperation, determination and simple doggedness. There shall be an end to this nightmare. There will be light at the end of this darkness.
Tanwir Nawaz is an architect and urbanisation specialist.