Opinion: Bangladesh should petition to UN for Worldwide Synchronised Lockdown

The Covid-19 virus has now spread to all major cities of the world since the initial outbreak in China in December 2019.

The threat of another pandemic subsequent to the 1918 Influenza pandemic had long been predicted by scientists, epidemiologists, and virologists. But few countries, or possibly none, had forecasted the economic and commercial effects of a pandemic, and therefore, few have contingencies in place to manage a pandemic.

For the 180 million people in a country like Bangladesh, the real threat isn't just the virus, but the onslaught of unemployment and hunger brought on by the economic collapse due to the virus.

The initial shutdown ordered by the government was till 4th April. Accordingly, people from the villages began to return to work on the 5th of April despite fears of contracting and spreading the virus. But they did that because no work equals no pay. Now the shutdown has been extended to the 10th of April, with the possibility of further extensions.

Highly developed nations like China and the US can sustain their economies for up to twelve months or more, even under such unprecedented circumstances.

But for countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and several others, the economic reality is far more immediate and abridged. Just two months in, Spain and Italy now find themselves in dire straits.

If the current situation persists, the $30 Billion reserves at the Bangladesh Bank will hardly sustain us beyond August 2020. With no credible end in sight as to when this nightmare will come to an end, countries like Bangladesh cannot wait.

The economic results will be catastrophic. Unemployment will rise, along with crime. Hunger is a reality few of us remember, thanks to the rapid economic growth of Bangladesh.  But as one rickshaw puller told me, "I am not afraid of the virus, I am afraid of starving."

The major contributors to the Bangladesh economy are the migrant workers sending a portion of their hard-earned salary in foreign currency to their families at home, and the ready-made garment (RMG) factories exporting clothes to the world. 

With a significant loss of foreign remittance coming in through the migrant workers who have now returned home, we can soon expect a serious shortage of foreign currency. The loss to the RMG sector is already reported to be over $2 billion. Can a country like Bangladesh sustain such catastrophic loss exposures? 

On the control of the virus front, China, Hong Kong, and Singapore took early decisions to lockdown. That resulted in next-to-zero new local cases of the virus. However, that didn't last for too long.

All new cases reported in these countries are now from imported cases; that is, people with the virus coming into their countries and spreading it again. Singapore has now further extended its lockdown.

Similarly, India and Bangladesh locking down at different intervals will unlikely to have any long term positive result given the trade, commerce, and cross migration of people.

This complicates the control of the virus. How can we stop the spread when we cannot detect it as late as up to 14 days? Is it truly feasible to quarantine each and every visitor for 14 days in every country, until we find a long term solution?

It is obvious from the virus control efforts of China, Hong Kong, and Singapore that, until the world undertakes the same extreme measures, there really isn't any end to this virus in sight. But each country shutting down at different times does little to no good at all. 

The only known fact about the Covid-19 coronavirus is that it shows itself within 14 days of incubation. So, unless the world shuts down to a lockdown together for at least 14 to 21 days, this virus cannot be stopped. 

Yes, a vaccine or antiviral drug may come into being. But to mass-produce it and administer it to the 8 billion population of the world will take years. Can we wait that long?

While large economies of the world can wait, a country like Bangladesh cannot wait for the rest of the world to catch on and get smart. For Bangladesh, the threat is imminent and catastrophic. 

As such, Bangladesh should petition to the UN to sanction a synchronized worldwide lockdown for at least 14 days, commencing from no later than the 15th of April 2020. The sooner the world does this, the sooner we can resume some sense of normalcy in the world. 

It is time for brave leaders of the world to make brave decisions. I strongly believe the leader of our country to be one of them.

M. R. Khan is a risk management specialist, and the CEO of Integrated Risk Consulting Group. You may email your comments to mrkhan@intrcg.com