What is at stake for Bangladesh at COP26?
The most important climate talk at the highest political level—since the Paris climate conference in 2015—is set to take place in Glasgow, Scotland this year, from October 31 to November 12. This is the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is not only the largest global climate summit, but also the largest global event as the sheer existence of the world will depend on the outcome of this year's conference.
This climate summit carries a lot of significance for Bangladesh. The country is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change, regularly experiencing floods, cyclones, storm surges, droughts, and other extreme climate events. Bangladesh faces the risk of sea-level rise due to global warming. The severity of the impact of climate change has already been scientifically proven. The sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in August 2021, has projected various scenarios to indicate where the world stands right now in reaching its targets for reducing the rate of global warming, and what it means in terms of the impact of global warming. The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation and the severity of droughts and heatwaves due to the warming of the Earth will be insurmountable. Some of the consequences of climate change, such as melting ice sheets, rising seas, loss of species, and acidic oceans will be irreversible. The findings of the IPCC assessment report are far more bleak than ever, and a wake-up call for the global leaders to take meaningful actions.
The significance of COP26 originates from the commitments of COP21, held in Paris in 2015. At the Paris summit, countries agreed to bring down their carbon emission levels to limit the rising temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, to adapt to the climate impacts, and to make funds available to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement is a legally binding commitment. However, the countries agreed to reduce emissions voluntarily by setting their emission reduction targets in their national plans. This is termed as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which spell out how much the countries would reduce their emissions. They also agreed to review and present their updated reduction plan every five years.
Bangladesh, along with other climate vulnerable countries, has active interest in the outcome of COP26. In the run-up to the conference, a number of issues have been raised by these countries. Among these, at least five specific agendas are critically important for these countries, which are being discussed by experts and activists at various forums around the world. First, the major emitting countries have to commit to deeper emission cuts by 2030 in order to achieve the target of keeping the global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius. A number of advanced countries as well as China have already raised their ambition levels through higher reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while many have reiterated their commitment to reduce emissions. As of September 28, 2021, a total of 89 countries have submitted new NDC targets, four countries have proposed new NDC targets, while 71 countries have not updated their targets.
Second, scaling up climate finance is urgently needed, so that vulnerable countries can make higher investments into reducing the risk of climate change with better adaptation schemes. Besides, vulnerable countries like Bangladesh have to invest in renewable energy and make such energy accessible to the poor. Unfortunately, the pledges made by the developed countries to mobilise USD 100 billion per year by 2020 remains unfulfilled. At the 76th United Nations General Assembly this year, the US committed to increase its contribution to climate finance by 2024. Earlier, a number of other developed countries also made pledges to increase their contributions to climate finance. However, there should be new pledges by the developed countries for the vulnerable countries. Experts and various climate action groups called for a minimum of USD 500 billion during 2020-24. Of course, a much bigger amount is needed. The commitment to increase the fund contributions is only one part of the story. For Bangladesh, accessibility of the climate fund is also challenging since a significant part of this fund is in the form of loans and non-concessional instruments.
Third, Bangladesh and other climate vulnerable countries need more financing for adaptation. Regrettably, the climate fund is more focused towards mitigation, which is used mostly by the developed countries—who emit GHGs more. Mitigation funds comprise 75 percent of the total climate finance, and are mostly used for energy and transport sectors. Least developed countries are not responsible for creating the problem of climate change, but are the worst victims of its negative impacts. Bangladesh has been successfully tackling various climate-related challenges with limited resources, and often with indigenous technologies. However, given the enormity of the problem, the country needs to enhance its adaptive capacity and strengthen its resilience. This will require higher resources and technology transfer to make a successful green transition. Moreover, we must keep in mind that the Covid-19 pandemic has put additional pressure on climate vulnerable countries. The pandemic is considered to have increased inequality not only within countries, but also among the countries. Therefore, without enhanced finance, these countries will face difficulty in recovering from the fallout of the pandemic and build their economies better.
Fourth, Bangladesh also expects that the details of the Paris Rulebook are finalised at COP26, so that the accountability of the activities of all countries is established. Three important components of the rulebook are: a) Guidance to facilitate global stocktaking for assessing collective progress on the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement; b) Establishment of a five-year time frame for NDCs by the countries, instead of a 10-year time frame, so that the progress can be tracked more often and measures can be taken accordingly; and c) Finalisation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which sets rules for carbon markets in a way that financial support for adaptation is made available and human rights are safeguarded. This is important, since credible and tangible emission reduction is critical for environmental integrity.
Fifth, the mechanism of loss and damage should be established. At COP19 in November 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts was established. The objective was to address loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change in vulnerable developing countries. Article 8 of the Paris Agreement reaffirmed the Loss and Damage Mechanism as the main vehicle under the UNFCCC process for addressing the issue. The demand for loss and damage has been a long-standing issue. The developed countries have been resisting the idea.
Along with the concerned global citizens, Bangladesh also recognises that failure to deliver on the climate commitments by global leaders in Glasgow will be devastating for the present and future generations. Leaders have expressed their hope for a positive outcome. The world is eagerly waiting to see how the fate of climate vulnerable citizens is determined at COP26.
Dr Fahmida Khatun is executive director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).