Rohingya crisis: A multilateral approach to forging peace
The large-scale population displacement from Myanmar has created an unprecedented situation in Bangladesh and highlighted that resilience and mutual trust are embedded values in the state architecture. A country that has the highest population density sits amidst a global crisis, which has been declared as a L3 (highest) level emergency by several UN organisations including UNICEF, WFP and UNHRC. The role of the neighbouring states, especially India and China, remains crucial in finding a long-term inclusive solution to this crisis. As monsoon threatens to aggravate the situation for Rohingya refugees living in camps, the need for external aid continues to rise.
At this juncture, India has been forthcoming with its support for the refugees in terms of food supplies. On the other hand, the question of sending back 40,000 Rohingyas from India still lurks at the Supreme Court in India. Sushma Swaraj, the external affairs minister of India, has however declared maximum support for Bangladesh in tackling the humanitarian crisis. She highlighted the "need for the safe, speedy and sustainable return of displaced persons to Rakhine state". "The only long-term solution to the situation in Rakhine State is rapid socio-economic and infrastructure development that would have a positive impact on all the communities living in the State," she said.
In this connection, early this year, China proposed a three-point solution to facilitate safe return of the Rohingyas to Myanmar. But it said it was opposed to any kind of investigation into the military activities in Myanmar which put considerable light on China's strategic concerns in the region. This came in response to the UK's insistence on ensuring a "transparent investigation" by the UN into the human rights violations. Beijing put forward a statement blatantly ignoring all mention of accountability and transparent investigations. It stressed "the need to address the root cause of the issue" and called for more investment in the Rakhine state to "achieve stability through development". The UK, France and the US have rejected these changes and insisted on further negotiation.
It is important that big powers in the region consolidate their presence by extensively advocating for the protection of human rights rather than striving to protect their bilateral partners. As India and China recently commenced renewed engagement with a series of informal talks between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it is crucial for India to lobby with China and other regional/global powers to ensure that favourable conditions are created in Myanmar for the Rohingyas to return safely. Both the countries have agreed on cooperating to undertake economic engagements in Afghanistan—there is an urgent need for this to be replicated in Myanmar and Bangladesh. Despite persistent resistance from Pakistan, China has taken a step forward by joining hands with India in Afghanistan. Similarly, it now needs to take a tougher stance as regards the Rohingya crisis. This would not just consolidate its legitimacy as a regional actor but also ensure its status of a peacemaker in the global platform.
Additionally, Bangladesh needs support from all the actors in the region to ensure that the refugees are insured against the monsoon season. The UN organisations operating in Cox's Bazar have reported regular causalities owing to the onset of monsoon and landslides. The present scenario demands cumulative efforts from all fractions to ensure the safety of the over a million refugees residing in the makeshift camps in Bangladesh. The solution to this scale of humanitarian crisis lies in persistent efforts of regional as well as global actors to forge a diplomatic agreement between Myanmar Junta, the civilian government and the refugees. Unless a peaceful resolution is reached, the refugees will continue to suffer, even if they return to Myanmar.
To put it bluntly, Bangladesh faces a gigantic security threat and it will have inevitable consequences on the entire region and beyond, just like the Syria crisis affected the whole Arab region. Bangladesh also remains a vulnerable site with radical groups trying to take advantage of the situation and secure a stronghold in the country. It remains to be seen how the major actors descend to the same page and consolidate their efforts with the aim of forging a peaceful solution to this protracted crisis, with the individual/group rights of the Rohingyas fully protected.
Baisali Mohanty is a senior analyst with the Global Risk Insights, Washington DC, US.